The roof is open at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, where the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans enter Monday Night Football with the same 3-4 record. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. Both teams suffered losses the last time they took the field, with the Titans opting to go for two in the final minute against the Chargers in London and coming up short, while the Cowboys fell by a field goal to the Redskins. And if you believe the latest Cowboys vs. Titans odds, Monday Night Football could come down to the final drive.
The Cowboys vs. Titans spread has been on the move all week. Dallas was favored by as many as 6.5 before the line dropped a full two points to 4.5. The Over-Under, or total number of points oddsmakers think will be scored, opened at 42 and moved as low as 40. Now, it's back to 40.5. Before you lock in any Cowboys vs. Titans picks, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times to produce against-the-spread, over-under and money-line picks. In a straight-up, pick'em format, the model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model was a blistering 13-1 straight up last week. Additionally, it was a strong 6-0 on all top-rated picks in Week 8, including nailing the Redskins (-1) over the Giants and the Seahawks (+3) vs. the Lions. That perfect mark in Week 8 improved its overall run to 68-43 on all top-rated picks. Anybody who has been following these picks is way, way up.
Now, the model has simulated Cowboys vs. Titans 10,000 times. We will tell you that the model is leaning toward the over, but it has also locked in a bold point-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows that despite the focus on Cooper's first game with America's Team, the Cowboys are always at their best when running back Ezekiel Elliott gets a healthy dose of the ball. Dallas is 3-1 when Elliott gets at least 20 touches, and this week he faces a Titans defense that ranks 19th against the run, Elliott could see more open room to run than he's used to if Cooper can attract defensive attention.
In the three Cowboys victories, Elliott has averaged 112 yards per game. He's found the end zone in four of seven games this season and is a dual-threat with 25 receptions this season.
Dallas is also No. 4 in total defense, allowing just 313.7 yards per game, and is tops in the NFL in points allowed at 17.6 per game. The Cowboys also embarrassed the only other AFC South team they played this season, the Jaguars, 40-7.
However, don't assume that means the Titans can't cover on "Monday Night Football."
The Titans won three of their first four games, but have lost three straight entering Monday Night Football. Still, quarterback Marcus and Mariota and company haven't been getting blown out. Although the Titans have scored an average of just 13 points in their losses, they've only given up an average of 20.
Tennessee owns the No. 3 scoring defense in the NFL at 18.1 points per game allowed and boasts a top-10 pass defense.
And the Titans are coming off perhaps their best game of the season, even in a loss. Mariota threw for 237 yards and had a QB rating of 92.8. Running back Dion Lewis averaged a robust 7.0 yards per carry, while wide receiver Tajae Sharpe went over 100 yards on nine targets.
Who wins Titans vs. Cowboys? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.
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