There should be no doubt that the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be two of the most prolific pass offenses in the NFL In 2021. But there's still plenty of doubt where exactly all those passes are going. Both teams look like they have too many weapons for just one football.
It's pretty much impossible to solve this riddle by looking at least year's numbers. Dallas only had four and a half games with Dak Prescott and Blake Jarwin left after Week 1. O.J. Howard left in Week 4 last year and Antonio Brown didn't arrive until Week 9. Giovani Bernard wasn't even a part of the equation. But we can at least get an idea of the positional target share.
Kellen Moore's offense in Dallas has distributed between 62-64% of the targets to wide receivers the past two seasons, with 17-21% going to tight ends and 16-18% going to running backs. In Tom Brady's first year in Tampa, the Buccaneers WR target rate fell from 62% to 57.6% and the running backs and tight ends saw an increase that covered that drop.
At wide receiver, that leaves enough room for all six receivers on the two teams to receive a 20% target share, but not much more...if it's an even split. That's great for offensive efficiency, because it's not predictable on a given play, but it probably rules out a top-12 season unless someone has a crazy touchdown year like Mike Evans did last year.
One game isn't going to fully solve this mystery, but I will be watching very closely to see snap and target rates for Antonio Brown and Michael Gallup in particular. They were the two cheapest, by far on Draft Day. If drafters were right and they're a distant third in the target share, Evans, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Chris Godwin have a much better chance of justifying their ADP. If not, we could have a handful of low-end WR2s on these two teams.
Two things for the future, before we get to the rest of the preview:
1. On both these teams, if one of the top three receivers misses time, the other two should be absolute stars.
2. I have no trouble with starting all of these guys simply out of FOMO. I expect fireworks in the opener.
Here is the rest of the Week 1 WR Preview:
Week 1 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 1 at this time. Here's what it means:
Numbers to Know
- 70 -- Allen Robinson had 70 yards against the Rams in 2020, if you're looking for a reason for hope.
- 45% -- The Raiders ranked dead last in share of targets to their wide receivers last year; that will need to change if Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards is to matter for Fantasy.
- 10.4 -- Michael Thomas averaged 10.4 targets per game over the past two seasons. If Marquez Callaway earns 75% of that he'll be a must-start receiver.
- 5.6 -- Brown led the Buccaneers with 5.6 catches per game in 2020. If that continues, it will be hard for Evans and Godwin to justify their ADP.
- 17% -- Lamb had a 17% target share with Dak Prescott. He probably needs a 20% increase to come close to justifying his ADP.
- 0 -- Jakobi Meyers has still never scored a touchdown in a real NFL game.
- 10 -- Corey Davis saw 10 targets in two quarters of the preseason. It's possible I'm still too low on him even with the Week 1 boost.
- 4 -- Ja'Marr Chase dropped four preseason passes. I don't really care about that but I do worry that a couple of Week 1 drops could exacerbate the problem. He's an upside WR3.
- 5.9 -- Sammy Watkins averaged 5.9 targets per game in Kansas City. How those are distributed will help determine whether the Chiefs have another Fantasy-relevant wide receiver.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
DFS Plays
Heath's Projections
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