The 2020 NFL Draft has come and gone, and while it took a little while for the trade lines to start buzzing, we wound up with more deals than expected during the three-day event. While the moves made didn't come anywhere near the 40 trades struck during last year's draft, we saw 29 swaps go down in all this year, with the vast majority coming on Days 2 and 3.
The process is not-at-all scientific: I look at the value of each pick involved in a trade, based upon the draft value chart detailed here that estimates the values of picks based upon trades that have actually happened in recent years. That provides a base score for whether a team over-or-underpaid.
I then look at the asset they targeted in the deal -- and here it's important to note that we're grading the team that either moved up for a pick that was on the clock at the time, or that added a veteran in a deal that involved picks yet to come -- and use my subjective opinion on whether the acquiring team landed a prospect that wouldn't have been there at their previous pick, and whether the targeted prospect made sense as someone who could have an impact.
Confused? Probably. It boils down to this: I graded every team that felt the need to make a trade in the draft to go get someone. Then I ranked them from worst to best. Let's get started.
29. Saints get good player at a massive price
- Saints get No. 74 (LB Baun), 244
- Browns get No. 88, 2021 third
Zack Baun fell further than he should have in the draft, and trades that happen for players who fit that category typically aren't ones you find at the end of these rankings, especially not in the last spot. But the drop-off in pure value between this deal and the next-worst one (which we won't get to until No. 22) was about equal to the gap between that second-worst deal and the fourth-best trade made. If you're lapping the field in terms of value surrendered, that's a problem.
Future picks are assigned a value equal to the last pick in that round, which has been a pretty good method in calculating deals over the last five years. And I'm giving an even bigger penalty during the subjective part of my analysis for trading away future picks this year, as the coronavirus-impacted predraft process left teams able to do far less than they typically could. Assuming things are back to normal next year, predraft evaluations are going to be more complete with the lack of restrictions imposed on teams and prospects. So those are picks you'd rather have than ones this year where your evaluations may be incomplete, and that's going to be reflected in many of the deals you'll find among the worst on my list.
28. Patriots pay premium for second TE pick
- Patriots get No. 101 (TE Keene)
- Jets get No. 125, 129, 2021 sixth
Maybe the Patriots have big plans for Dalton Keene after trading up to take him 10 picks after they landed another tight end in Devin Asiasi. But there weren't many people who thought the Virginia Tech tight end would go on Day 2, so this would have been seen as a reach even if it had cost the Patriots one pick instead of three. And that third pick coming in 2021 doesn't help, nor does this deal being an overpay even if you throw that pick out and just make it a 2-for-1. If not for the Saints trading away a Day 2 pick in next year's draft, this deal would have been 2020's worst.
27. Bears trade future pick for edge rusher
- Bears get No. 155 (EDGE Gipson)
- Vikings get 2021 fourth
I don't love trading the future pick for a fifth-rounder this year, which is where most of the issue lies with the deal. But if the Bears had made the move to land Boise State edge rusher Curtis Weaver, a Day 2 talent who lasted until No. 164, I would have felt better about sacrificing that future pick, rather than selecting Trevis Gipson. The Bears are already down to five picks in next year's draft after this deal.
26. Saints sacrifice future pick for Taysom-type QB
- Saints get No. 240 (QB Stevens)
- Texans get 2021 sixth
The next three spots in my rankings feature similar deals, with teams trading away future sixth-round picks in a draft class where they'll be able to do more work on prospects for end-of-draft lottery tickets they could have very well landed as undrafted free agents. The Saints rank last since the player they took, Tommy Stevens, appears ticketed for grooming for a Taysom Hill-type role, which means far fewer teams were likely to have their eye on him as a developmental prospect. And if you really wanted to take him on Day 3, maybe don't trade away all of your Day 3 picks before the end of Round 3.
25. Seahawks trade into final five picks
- Seahawks get No. 251 (TE Sullivan)
- Dolphins get 2021 sixth
The Seahawks added Greg Olsen to the top of their depth chart earlier this offseason, then picked up a pretty good Day 3 tight end in Colby Parkinson. So why feel the need to get into the final five picks of the draft for another tight end project in Stephen Sullivan? Making things more confusing, two of the picks behind this one belonged to the Broncos, who were well-stocked with receiving threats at tight end after their selection of Albert Okwuegbunam. This felt like an unnecessary deal to make.
24. Chiefs use future pick to address big need
- Chiefs get No. 237 (CB Keyes)
- Titans get 2021 sixth
The Chiefs' move ranks best of our three 2021 sixth-round pick deals as they addressed a key need where they had to add depth, though they selected a player with a UDFA grade. They also landed the earliest pick of the three moves, preventing more teams from taking the guy they wanted.
23. Seahawks attack edge-rusher need
- Seahawks get No. 48 (EDGE Taylor)
- Jets get No. 59, 101
This deal was the fifth-worst in terms of pure value in the draft, as Seattle should have gotten around the 203rd pick back in value for surrendering these two Day 2 selections. But they did address a key need on the defensive line with Darrell Taylor, though it's up for debate whether he should have been the player chosen over someone like A.J. Epenesa, who went six picks later, or even Josh Uche or Julian Okwara, who would have been available at Seattle's initial pick.
22. Bucs secure needed tackle help
You could make arguments for giving this deal a better ranking (big drop-off at the tackle position after Tristan Wirfs, and who knows who could have traded into the No. 13 spot) or a worse one (this was the second-worst deal made in terms of pure value, with the Bucs losing out on the equivalent of about No. 170). This feels just about right to me, settling in just ahead of two deals where teams had to sacrifice future capital but also got good players at a value.
21. Cowboys land potential Frederick heir
- Cowboys get No. 146 (C Biadasz)
- Eagles get No. 164, 2021 fifth
The Cowboys probably made the right call in sacrificing a future fifth-rounder for Tyler Biadasz, who was a projected first-round pick at this time last year, but we'll be able to see that process play out in real time. If the Wisconsin center can smooth over the loss of Travis Frederick and establish himself as the team's center for the next decade, it'll be well worth the price paid. But there's a reason other teams let Biadasz slip to the end of the fourth round.
20. Patriots swap three picks for TE
- Patriots get No. 91 (TE Asiasi)
- Raiders get No. 100, 139, 172
This deal checks in as the sixth-worst from a value perspective, but at least the Patriots addressed a key need. However, it was surprising to see them take Devin Asiasi, who was seen as a Day 3 sleeper, late on Day 2 when the much more heralded Adam Trautman was still on the board. If the Pats had snagged the Dayton product, I'd have a better grade on this deal.
19. Bears jump to overdraft a receiver
- Bears get No. 173 (WR Mooney), 227
- Eagles get No. 196, 200, 233
In a draft this deep with receiving talent, there wasn't really a need to move up to land help at receiver. If you're going to do so, you had better be drafting a player that has no business still being on the board. But not only was Darrell Mooney far from the best receiver available, several receivers with much higher grades were still available at both of the Bears' original picks, including Quez Watkins, who the Eagles selected with one of those picks they acquired from Chicago.
18. Dolphins keep bolstering offensive line
- Dolphins get No. 111 (G Kindley)
- Texas get No. 136, 141
The Dolphins had a major need on the offensive line, so it wasn't all that surprising to see them spend three of their first seven picks on help up front. Kindley is a solid pick where he was taken, and it's possible he wouldn't have been on the board at No. 136. But the thing that keeps this deal from a better ranking is the value lost, as Miami should have been able to get a little something back. However, with all the draft capital Miami had entering the draft, it's hard to ding the Dolphins too much.
17. Panthers land sleeper safety at premium price
- Panthers get No. 64 (S Chinn)
- Seahawks get No. 69, 148
Jeremy Chinn entered draft weekend with some potential first-round buzz, so it's hard to knock the Panthers for getting him at the end of the second round. It's also possible he wouldn't have made it five more picks to Carolina, as the Jets also took a safety one pick ahead of the Panthers' original selection. The only reason this trade doesn't have a better grade is the overpay, as the Panthers should have been able to get a seventh-rounder back at this price.
16. Ravens sacrifice future pick for WR sleeper
- Ravens get No. 201 (WR Proche), 219
- Vikings get No. 225, 2021 fifth
I wanted to be more negative in grading this deal, as the Ravens surrendered a future pick in the move. But Baltimore was also able to recoup some value in the swap of seventh-rounders, and that move proved prescient as they landed an incredible value at their new Round 7 pick of No. 219 in safety Geno Stone. And the player they moved up here, James Proche, should have been long off the board by No. 201 as well. Losing a future pick is the only reason to knock this deal.
15. Saints trade the Day 3 farm for a tight end
- Saints get No. 105 (TE Trautman)
- Vikings get No. 130, 169, 203, 244
I certainly thought I was going to be more negative on a deal that cost the Saints four draft picks and meant they were scheduled to sit out all of Day 3. But the value actually wasn't terrible in landing No. 105 for that collection of picks, and the player they got at the end of Day 2, Adam Trautman, was the fifth tight end taken despite most considering him one of the top options at the position. Some even had him ranked ahead of No. 43 overall pick Cole Kmet.
14. Patriots make another move for guard help
- Patriots get No. 182 (G Onwenu)
- Colts get No. 212, 213
The Patriots lost a slight bit of value in this move and I'm not sure they needed to move up the board for Michael Onwenu. Had they managed to leap one more pick and land Fresno State's Netane Muti, that would have been a coup and certainly worth a much higher grade. But the Patriots march to the beat of their own drum when it comes to evaluating prospect talent, so at least this move wasn't made for a kicker.
13. Raiders target guard at start of Day 3
- Raiders get No. 109 (G Simpson)
- Lions get No. 121, 172
Like the Patriots, the Raiders made a move up the board and lost a tiny bit of value to select a guard, but I don't think it was as much of a reach landing John Simpson where they got him. He'll have a decent chance of emerging as a starter down the road for this team.
12. Dolphins trade pick for veteran RB
- Dolphins get RB Breida
- 49ers get No. 153
I don't mind going to get the talented Matt Breida to add to the running game, but of the pick-for-veteran deals, this felt like the biggest overpay, considering how fungible the running back position is. Will he be that much better than backs that went in the seventh round like Eno Benjamin or Raymond Calais, or than the options available as free agents after the draft? The Dolphins should have shipped out their sixth-rounder rather than using it on a long snapper, then found a player at a position of need at No. 153.
11. Jets pay cheap price for corner
- Jets get CB Wilson
- Colts get No. 211
Here's another veteran deal I don't mind, with this one coming at a much more affordable price. Quincy Wilson has a much better chance at contributing than any corner you're going to find in the 200s of a draft, especially the guy the Colts replaced Wilson with at No. 211 in Isaiah Rodgers, who was completely off the radar and likely could have been had after the draft.
10. Eagles pay tiny price for fast receiver
- Eagles get WR Goodwin, No. 210
- 49ers get No. 190
The Eagles came into this draft focused on adding speed at the receiver position, starting right at the top with their selection of Jalen Reagor. They added two more value picks on Day 3 in John Hightower and Quez Watkins, but also made the negligible move back 20 spots for an established veteran in Marquise Goodwin. The price suggests he probably would have been available as a free agent, but I don't hate spending the equivalent of the 246th pick to keep him off the market.
9. Dolphins halt edge rusher's fall
- Dolphins get No. 164 (EDGE Weaver)
- Eagles get No. 173, 227
Curtis Weaver was a fantastic find this late in the draft, as we projected him to come off the board sometime on Day 2. He's a great addition for a Dolphins team that needs to develop young talent on the defensive side of the ball. The only knock on the deal is that it was a slight overpay getting to No. 164, but that's not a huge hang-up when the player added should have been long off the board.
8. Texans go get tackle depth
- Texans get No. 126 (OT Heck)
- Rams get No. 136, 248, 250
The Texans finally entered a draft without massive holes to address on the offensive line, so this seems like the perfect time to trade up for a tackle. But it's hard to knock this deal too much, as there was a big drop-off at the tackle position around this part of the draft, and this is the first of seven trades where the team moving up actually gained value in the deal instead of losing it (though in this case, the amount gained was basically nothing).
7. Lions make a move for guard help
- Lions get No. 75 (G Jackson)
- Colts get No. 82, 149, 182
The Lions had a clear need up front, and Jonah Jackson is good enough to compete for a starting job right out the gate. With the Lions also gaining positive value in the move up despite surrendering three picks in the deal, that makes this move one of the better ones in this year's draft.
6. Packers get good value on confusing deal
- Packers get No. 26 (QB Love)
- Dolphins get No 30, 136
You probably expected to see this deal much earlier in this article, as the trade was widely panned for a team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback that fell one game short of reaching the Super Bowl last year. And that factor is what knocks this trade back to No. 6, because if you just look at the value of the picks traded, this was the most valuable move up in this year's draft, with the Packers gaining roughly the value of the 187th pick in this deal. Time will tell if Jordan Love can live up to being Rodgers' successor, but had the pick itself made more sense (say, linebacker Patrick Queen), this move would have been our clear No. 1.
5. 49ers move up, not back, at end of Day 1
- 49ers get No. 25 (WR Aiyuk)
- Vikings get No. 31, 117, 176
This was the fourth-best move in terms of positive value gained by the team moving up, but you can make an argument for grading this trade a little worse than I have it. With the depth at receiver, it's not like the 49ers had to pull the trigger on a deal, and for a team that entered the draft without a ton of premium picks, it was surprising to see them sacrifice the fourth-round pick they landed from the Bucs earlier in Round 1 in this move. But the value of the deal makes it a win for the team, especially if Brandon Aiyuk can develop into a key piece of the offense.
4. Colts trade up for a running back
- Colts get No. 41 (RB Taylor)
- Browns get No. 44, 160
While I'm typically against paying a premium to land a running back considering the devaluation of the position, this actually represented a positive-value trade for Indianapolis, and Jonathan Taylor was the RB1 on some boards heading into the draft. With Jacksonville picking next at No. 42 and making it clear they're ready to move on from Leonard Fournette, the Colts did a good job potentially stealing Taylor from their division rival.
3. Patriots make great deal for edge-rush help
- Patriots get No. 60 (EDGE Uche), 129
- Ravens get No. 71, 98
This checks in as the third-best pure value move on the board, with New England adding the equivalent of the 213th pick in this pick swap. And they addressed a key need for edge rush help with a potential Kyle Van Noy successor in Josh Uche, who could have went at any point on Day 2 and not been a reach. He was highly unlikely to make it 11 more picks, and the Patriots were able to not lose a selection in the move, instead, trading back 31 spots later in the draft.
2. 49ers replace one great tackle with another
- 49ers get OT Williams
- Redskins get No. 156, 2021 third
The Trent Williams market never materialized as expected, so when the 49ers found out left tackle Joe Staley was about to retire, they were able to pay a reasonable price to go get a replacement who has made seven Pro Bowls in his career. And while I bashed trading away future picks in other deals, this is one where the 49ers know what they're getting in the acquired player rather than taking a gamble on a prospect. This trade package values Williams as about the 86th pick in the draft, and considering the price paid to acquire other top tackles in years past such as Laremy Tunsil and Duane Brown, this move qualifies as a steal.
1. Chargers trade back into first round for linebacker
- Chargers get No. 23 (LB Murray)
- Patriots get No. 37, 71
The Chargers don't make many draft-day trades, but when they do, apparently they make them count. This deal qualified as the second most valuable for the team trading up, with L.A. landing the equivalent of the 192nd pick in value to make this move. While it cost them the chance to add offensive tackle help on Day 2, they did address a key need on the defensive side of the ball with a prospect in Kenneth Murray that had no shot at being available at No. 37. If they would have beat San Francisco to the punch and traded No. 151 and a future third for Williams, then they might have been declared one of the biggest winners of the draft. As it is, they'll have to settle for making the best draft-day trade of 2020.
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