Monday Night Football originates from Buffalo when the Bills host the New England Patriots at 8:15 p.m. ET. Running back Sony Michel (knee) is out for the Patriots, while Bills back LeSean McCoy is questionable after suffering a concussion. New England is on an incredible roll, racking up four consecutive wins in which they're averaging nearly 40 points a game. Buffalo, in just its third home game of the season, is looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss in Indianapolis, but is 3-4 against the spread. The Patriots opened as 13-point favorites and are now laying 13.5. The Over-Under is 44.5 in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds. Before you make any Bills vs. Patriots picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
It went 10-4 straight up in a wild Week 7, including calling the Patriots' huge win over the Bears, improving its record to a blistering 71-34 on the season. And when it comes to top-rated picks, it is now on a strong 62-43 run. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.
Now, the model has simulated the Patriots vs. Bills on "Monday Night Football" 10,000 times. We can tell you it says the over cashes in 52 percent of simulations, and it has also found plenty of value on one side of the spread. This pick is available only at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that as long as Tom Brady is under center, the Patriots will almost always be favored. Brady has tossed 16 touchdown passes against seven interceptions. He's also on track to throw for 4,300 yards this season.
Lined up in the backfield near Brady will be running backs Kenjon Barner and James White. While Michel is sidelined with a knee injury, Barner, formerly with the Philadelphia Eagles, should get plenty of touches, but White is the bigger threat. He leads the Patriots in both receptions (45) and touchdowns (seven).
The Patriots have won four straight and covered three times over that span.
But just because the Patriots have been hot doesn't mean they'll cover a two-touchdown spread in a divisional road game.
A strong ground game capable of keeping the high-flying New England offense off the field and taking pressure off Bills quarterback Derek Anderson will be key to a Buffalo cover. Buffalo's top two running backs are banged up, but both are expected to play.
LeSean McCoy leads the squad with 244 rushing yards, but has yet to hit pay dirt. Backup Chris Ivory topped 100 yards from scrimmage last week in the blowout loss to the Colts.
Who wins Patriots vs. Bills? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.
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