What Week 10's top-25 schedule will mean, now that we have Playoff rankings

With the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2018, the table’s now set for the season’s stretch run.

Below, we’re keeping track of each top-25 game’s impact, both before and after final scores, mostly paying attention to CFP committee business, not highlights and stuff.

Remember the things the committee has mostly demonstrated it rewards: wins over final top-25 teams, wins over bowl teams, road wins, dominant wins, weirdly excusable losses, being Alabama, and not being a mid-major. It does not care what your opponent’s ranking was at kickoff.

All times ET. All days Saturday, unless noted. Final scores in bold.

Games in which the winning team will likely have a pretty high-quality Week 9 victory by season’s end. Or: really meaningful upsets.

• No. 1 Alabama (8-0) at No. 3 LSU (7-1), 8, CBS: Biggest game of 2018 so far ... kind of. Assuming you don’t think Mississippi State or Auburn can beat Bama in Tuscaloosa, the Tide might virtually clinch a Playoff spot here (since we know they don’t necessarily need an SEC title to make it). The Tigers can remain in great shape for a New Year’s Six bid with any kind of competitive showing.
• No. 5 Michigan (7-1) vs. No. 14 Penn State (6-2), 3:45, ESPN: I have the Wolverines in the Playoff, and obviously, they’re there if they win out. I also think Penn State has a NY6 shot even with a loss here.
• No. 6 Georgia (7-1) at No. 9 Kentucky (7-1), 3:30, CBS: The winner’s in the SEC Championship and one upset away from the Playoff. That’s a real sentence about a game involving the Kentucky Football Wildcats. Hi.
• No. 13 West Virginia (6-1) at No. 17 Texas (6-2), 3:30, Fox: The winner’s very likely in the Big 12 Championship, where it’ll probably lose to Oklahoma. The conference would like WVU staying alive in the Playoff race, but how much would it love a second Oklahoma-Texas game?

Games in which the winner will probably have beaten a decent bowl team.

• No. 4 Notre Dame (8-0) at Northwestern (5-3), 7:15, ESPN: Northwestern could win the Big Ten West. Northwestern could be a .500 team that lost to Akron. Anything from an OK win to a great win is on the table for the Irish, but watch out for these underdogs.
• No. 7 Oklahoma (7-1) at Texas Tech (5-3), 8, ABC: Should be a decent win available for OU against one of roughly 263 teams still alive for the Big 12 title.
• No. 8 Washington State (7-1) vs. Cal (5-3), 10:45, ESPN: WSU is still alive for the Playoff, but more realistically, moving a step closer to clinching the Pac-12 North is goal No. 1. Before the Apple Cup, ideally.
• No. 11 Florida (6-2) vs. Missouri (4-4), 4, SEC Network: If the Gators just handle business from here on out, they’re in the New Year’s Six in Dan Mullen’s first year.
• No. 15 Utah (6-2) vs. Arizona State (4-4), 4, Pac-12 Network: The Utes can move one spot closer to clinching their first Pac-12 title game bid, adding a road win over a pretty likely bowl team in the process.
• No. 16 Iowa (6-2) at Purdue (4-4), 3:30, ESPN2: I still think Iowa’s the likeliest Big Ten West champ, but maybe I’m an idiot.
• No. 18 Mississippi State (5-3) vs. Louisiana Tech (6-2), 7:30, SEC Network
• No. 19 Syracuse (6-2) vs. Wake Forest (4-4), noon, ACC Network
• No. 20 Texas A&M (5-3) vs. Auburn (5-3), noon, ESPN
• No. 21 NC State (5-2) vs. Florida State (4-4), 3:30, ABC
• No. 22 Boston College (6-2) vs. Virginia Tech (4-3), 3:45, ACC Network
• No. 25 Virginia (6-2) vs. Pitt (4-4), 7:30 on Friday, ESPN2: You think it’s weird that Virginia leads the ACC Coastal entering November? That’s nothing. A .500-ish Pitt can steal the lead with a win.

Since the committee’s showed over four years that non-power teams have a REALLY long path to the Playoff, let’s have a separate section for the race to be the top-ranked mid-major champ.

• No. 12 UCF (7-0) vs. Temple (5-3), Thursday at 7:30, ESPN: Based on win-loss records and S&P+, this will be the best team UCF’s played all year. This team has lost to FCS Villanova, but rapidly improved since.
• No. 23 Fresno State (7-1) at UNLV (2-6), 10:30, CBSSN: The Rebels are fading, so you better ring up style points. The Mountain West still might have to hope UCF loses, since it’s clear the committee cares a whole lot about the number in the loss column — Fresno very well might’ve been better than UCF on the year so far.
• Buffalo :
• Cincinnati (7-1) vs. Navy (2-6), 3:30, ESPNU
• Houston (7-1) at SMU (3-5), 7, ESPNU: I thought Houston would be ranked, but no worries. Get to the AAC title game and beat UCF, and the Cougs have a strong NY6 case.
• UAB (7-1) vs. UTSA (3-5), 7:30, beIN
• USF (7-1) vs. Tulane (3-5), 3:30, CBSSN
• Utah State (7-1) at Hawaii (6-4), midnight, Stadium

The committee tries not to care much about your wins over teams that finish with bad records, though you can get some credit for winning on the road or really laying it to folks. So for the ranked teams here: just don’t lose!

• No. 2 Clemson (8-0) vs. Louisville (2-6), noon, ABC: Holy shit, please do not watch this slaughter.
• No. 10 Ohio State (7-1) vs. Nebraska (2-6), noon, Fox: The Buckeyes’ strength of schedule is suddenly not great, and this won’t help matters, but they control their destiny regardless.
• No. 24 Iowa State (4-3) vs. Kansas (3-5), noon, FSN

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