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Editor's Note: Dave Richard is going through every preseason game, posting his reactions to what he sees here for Week 3. We'll be updating this post over the next few days.
The question isn't whether or not Peyton Barber is the Buccaneers starting running back. The question is whether or not Barber will play every single down.
Running with power, balance, patience and a dash of speed, Barber dismantled the Lions starting defense for 34 yards and a touchdown on five carries on the Bucs' opening drive. What made the performance even more impressive is that he ran behind an offensive line missing three starters, including both guards.
After the touchdown, a 14-yard jaunt through the right side of the Lions defense, Barber sat on the bench. His night was over — and his workload was locked up.
"We had initially planned to play him a little bit longer, but he looked so good on that first drive," Bucs coach Dirk Koetter said. "You do start getting a little bit paranoid the closer that you get and especially with our offensive line being a little bit banged up, we decided to pull him. I just told Peyton that I thought he'd done what he needed to do. From now on we'll just be getting him ready for New Orleans."
The only real competition Barber has had was Ronald Jones, the Bucs' rookie second-round pick. Once considered a slam-dunk starter, Jones struggled for the third straight game to run without hesitation. He had seven yards on six carries, though he did blow past a Lions linebacker and caught a gorgeous 37-yard pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Once Barber left the game, Jones split the rushing job with Jacquizz Rodgers. Third downs were exclusively Rodgers'.
"Ronald is a playmaker," Koetter said. "We haven't been able to get him loose in the running game, but he's been working hard on his receiving. That was good to see because he can get behind a defense. ... Any struggles that we're having getting Ronald going has nothing to do with his effort or his learning. I want to make that clear. Ronald's doing fine in that area. It hasn't been clean so far, he's had some good practices and I think he's going to be fine long-term."
It seems clear that Barber will get plenty of work to start out. Until Jones proves he can run freely, he's unlikely to see more than seven or so touches per game.
The preseason has worked out phenomenally for Barber, who now enters the late Round 6/early Round 7 discussion in all leagues. Jones has faded fast into the Round 9 abyss but still (yes, still) has potential to help your squad later on this year. You do not have to draft one if you get the other.
Titans running back snap update. Going into the season, we knew Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis would split playing time to some degree. But at Pittsburgh, Lewis had 11 snaps to Henry's eight over four offensive series. It's a little concerning since Lewis managed to play a few more first and second downs than we expected, but Henry dominated the snaps on the very first drive — the only one that wasn't a three-and-out for the Titans.
ADP expectation: The long-term expectation is Lewis struggles to play 16 games and Henry leads the way in carries and works the goal-line. If you find Henry as late as Round 4, take him. Lewis' Round 7 ADP is fair.
Who replaces Marqise Lee? The knee injury Lee suffered against the Falcons looked pretty gruesome. In the event he misses significant time, expect the Jaguars to lean on Donte Moncrief, Dede Westbrook and speedy rookie D.J. Chark as the outside receivers, with Keelan Cole locked into the slot. The best of the bunch? It should be Cole, who finished 2017 with four 10-plus point Fantasy games in his last five thanks to his speed and excellent route-running. Lee won't be around to take work away from him. The other guys will probably take turns having decent weeks. Just remember: Blake Bortles isn't known for his amazing downfield accuracy, and the Jaguars will try to keep things safe offensively. This lines up very well for Cole.
ADP expectation: Cole enters Round 11 sleeper territory. Westbrook and Chark might get some final-round attention, too.
Mahomes is good, holmes. Through three preseason games, Patrick Mahomes has completed 72.1 percent of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and an interception. He also has 27 rush yards on four carries. For a guy who has all of one game of NFL experience, it's a positive. Sure, his Preseason Week 3 numbers came against the Bears' backup defense, but he navigated them just fine, including when he correctly read the blitz and hit a wide open Kareem Hunt in the flat for a catch-and-run touchdown. With the Chiefs defense looking rough, Mahomes could be on the hook for over 600 pass attempts (and maybe 75 rush attempts) this season. His upside cannot be passed up.
ADP expectation: With more upside than Kirk Cousins, Mahomes has a Round 9 target.
Don't judge Watson on his last game. Hotly chased Fantasy quarterback Deshaun Watson was 3 of 6 passing for 15 yards with an interception. Ugly stats, right? He played on the road against a tough Rams defense without Will Fuller and practically without DeAndre Hopkins (one catch on one target). His interception was an overthrown deep bomb across his body over 50 yards downfield to Bruce Ellington. It was not a good showing, but it is meaningless. Don't lose sight that Watson remains very healthy and on the cusp of what should be another lucrative Fantasy season. If he played every snap with his top receivers, he'd fare much better.
ADP expectation: Round 3 is too soon but Round 5 is fine for Watson.
Don't be stupid, Denver. The Broncos have a choice between going with rookie Royce Freeman or Devontae Booker for their starting running back job. All preseason long, Booker has looked mostly average while Freeman has plowed through defenders, earned five gains for more than five yards (two for 20-plus yards) and found the end zone in each preseason game. Booker has two carries for more than four yards with no touchdowns. Unless Vance Joseph is legitimately blind, expect Freeman to handle the primary rushing duties to begin the year with another back (maybe Booker) working third downs.
ADP expectation: Freeman is a must in Round 4.
Will the Lions come around on Kerryon? We've known two truths for a while: Kerryon Johnson is talented, and the Lions prefer to use multiple running backs. Both were evident in their preseason win at Tampa Bay. LeGarrette Blount handled most of the running-downs work and Theo Riddick got in there in passing situations and the two-minute offense. Johnson only played a handful of snaps but finished with a 6.3-yard rushing average in the matchup and a 4.5-yard average through three games. For Johnson to truly be a Fantasy force, the Lions will have to commit to him over Blount and/or Riddick. That seems unlikely, at least to begin the year.
ADP expectation: Johnson shouldn't fall past Round 5 but shouldn't be in the Round 4 conversation. Blount is a good late-round pick if you want a warm body who might score touchdowns. Riddick could catch four passes per game, helping him gain late-round value in PPR.
Balance of power changing in Denver's receiving corps? It's not fair to assume Emmanuel Sanders will be the go-to receiver in the Broncos offense by virtue of his preseason stats (15 targets, seven catches, 88 yards and a rushing touchdown against Washington). But it is fair to assume Courtland Sutton will take targets away from both Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. The rookie receiver offers mouth-watering size and has caught 5 of 7 targets including a 16-yard touchdown this preseason. By comparison, Thomas, who has barely played, has just 18 yards on three catches (five targets). The thinking is that Sutton will take work — and touchdowns — away from Thomas, hurting the veteran's production. Sanders, who is healthy and clearly has rapport with Case Keenum, might be the safest one to draft.
ADP expectation: Don't draft Thomas unless it's Round 4. Sanders is fine to tangle with in Round 6. Sutton is a late-round pick.
Is the secret out on Mike Williams? On multiple goal-to-go situations, the Saints had multiple defenders all over the Chargers second-year receiver. There was even one play where Williams was draped in coverage -- and Philip Rivers targeted him anyway. Williams has all kinds of massive touchdown potential but if defenses already know to keep bodies on him then he might not be as dominant as we hope. At the very least it was good to see Williams play a bunch with the first-team offense.
ADP expectation: Williams' ADP is Round 12 -- there's no risk in taking him then. Round 8 and even Round 9 seem too rich, though.
Is Seattle's O-line better than expected? Russell Wilson was kept clean and the Seahawks run game grinded out some decent numbers against a tough Vikings unit. Over 47 pass attempts this preseason, Wilson has been sacked just twice. Chris Carson, the Seahawks' lead rusher, averaged 4.3 yards per carry with consistent gains throughout August. Maybe this isn't as bad of a situation as first believed.
ADP expectation: Wilson has not always been the third or fourth quarterback off the board in drafts. He's a great pickup in Round 6. Carson will get attention starting in that same round but because there's concern he could eventually lose work to rookie Rashaad Penny, he's best taken in Round 7. Also, the concept of taking Carson and Penny in back-to-back rounds is gaining steam now that the Seahawks are looking a little bit better up front.
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