OK, so the start to December wasn't what I hoped it would be picking games. It was average -- all the way around.
In Week 13, I went 7-7 against the spread with my Expert Picks, 9-5 straight up and 3-3 with my Best Bets as part of the Pick Six Podcast. That brings my overall ATS record to 99-92-3, my straight-up record to 115-78-1 and my Best Bets record to 41-40.
Going into last week, I thought I had a good grasp of the games in the first week of December, but it didn't play out that way. There are a lot of games I do really like this week, especially with some teams playing consecutive road games.
Here's an easy pick: The Titans own the Jaguars in Nashville. Take that for what it's worth. Here are the rest of the picks:
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox)
This is a playoff game for these teams. The Steelers impressed in beating Baltimore last week in a close game, while the Vikings struggled against the Lions. It's tough to play on the road on a short week, especially after a rivalry game, which is why I think the Vikings will win this one in a low-scoring game.
Pick: Vikings 20, Steelers 14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
This is suddenly an enormous game in the division race. Washington has won four straight and is playing outstanding defense. The Dallas offense hasn't clicked as expected in recent weeks, either. Washington can close to within a game in the division if they win this, and I think they will. Washington takes it behind the defense.
Pick: Washington 23, Dallas 21
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-9.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jaguars always struggle in Tennessee and this is a second straight road game against a team coming off a bye. That's a bad combination. The Titans were struggling some before the bye, but like the Rams last week this Jaguars team is the game to get them back right. Titans big.
Pick: Titans 31, Jaguars 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Seattle kept its small playoff hopes alive last week in beating the 49ers. They now get to face a Texans team that is playing bad football. Russell Wilson and the Seattle pass offense should be able to finally show some big-play ability in this one. The Texans offense, even against a below-average Seattle defense, will struggle. Seahawks take it.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Texans 10
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Raiders are coming off a home loss and didn't look good on offense. They must now face a good Chiefs defense. When these two met earlier this year, the Kansas City offense had its best day of the season. The Vegas defense will be the tonic to get the Kansas City offense back on track. Patrick Mahomes lights it up.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Raiders 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Saints got a mini bye after playing Thursday last week, which was much needed with all the injuries. The Jets have played better lately, but I think they will struggle against a good New Orleans defense to move the ball. The Jets can't stop anybody - even Taysom Hill. Saints take it.
Pick: Saints 28, Jets 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Panthers are coming off a bye and just fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady, as if that will amp up the offense. They are playing good defense, though, and the front will get after Matt Ryan here. That will lead to short fields for the Carolina offense off turnovers as it gets the victory.
Pick: Panthers 24, Falcons 15
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Ravens are playing a second straight division road game, while the Browns are coming off a bye. Advantage Cleveland. The Ravens have struggled on offense in a big way for much of the past month. The Browns have, too, but I think their run game will be the difference in this one. They run to a victory and keep Lamar Jackson contained.
Pick: Browns 24, Ravens 20
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Chargers won a must-have game last week against the Bengals and now face a Giants team likely without their top two quarterbacks. That would mean Jake Fromm starts. This is a tough challenge for a team playing consecutive road games. The Chargers win it big behind Justin Herbert.
Pick: Chargers 29, Giants 7
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Lions won last week in dramatic fashion, but now must face a Broncos team that needs this game in terms of playoff survival. The Denver defense is playing well and will do so here. The offense will do enough for the Broncos to get back on the winning track, but the Lions will hang around.
Pick: Broncos 23, Lions 17
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The 49ers are playing a second straight road game, while the Bengals are coming off a home loss to the Chargers. The 49ers will use their run game to dictate tempo here, but I think this is a game for Joe Burrow to light up the 49ers secondary. Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase get back on track.
Pick: Bengals 31, 49ers 21
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Buffalo is playing on a short week after playing Monday night and now must travel to play a good Bucs team. That's tough to do. But after playing in the elements against New England, playing here will help Josh Allen and the passing game. Tampa Bay's defense isn't good right now. Look for a lot of points as Allen and Tom Brady light things up. This will be fun as Tampa Bay wins it, but Buffalo will keep it close.
Pick: Bucs 33, Bills 32
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Packers are coming off the bye, so they will be rested. The Bears looked bad in losing to the Cardinals last week, but might have Justin Fields back for this game. They need to make the rest of the season about developing Fields. The Packers are playing for a lot more, which will show up here. It's a blowout as Aaron Rodgers continues to own the Bears.
Pick: Packers 31, Bears 13
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-3)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This is an enormous game in the division and in the conference. The Cardinals beat the Rams at their place earlier this season. They dominated that game. This one won't be as easy. The Rams played well last week against the Jaguars, but this is a big step up. The Cardinals will beat them a second time.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Rams 20
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