With the Patriots in the Super Bowl for the third straight year, that can only mean one thing: We're almost certainly going to get four hours of craziness on Sunday.
The Patriots have been to the Super Bowl a total of eight times since 2000 and all eight of those Super Bowls have been decided by one score, including New England's 41-33 loss to the Eagles to cap the 2017 season and the Patriots' wild 34-28 win over the Falcons to end the 2016 season.
Although the Super Bowl can be nearly impossible predict -- especially when the Patriots are playing -- we're going to try and do it anyway by making eight bold predictions for Super Bowl LIII. Remember, these are bold predictions only. If you're looking for an actual game pick, feel free to click here.
Super Bowl LIII is Sunday, Feb. 3, in Atlanta and it will air on CBS and streamed here on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App for free on most connected devices.
Will Jared Goff finish with more yards than Tom Brady?
Let's get to the bold predictions and find out (And just in case you're wondering, I hit on four out of eight bold predictions during the championship round).
Bold predictions for Super Bowl LIII
1. Patriots score a touchdown in the first quarter
This might not seem like a bold prediction, but when it comes to the Patriots playing in the Super Bowl, this is as bold as it gets. This Sunday's game will mark the ninth Super bowl that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have been to together, and somehow, the Patriots have never scored a first quarter touchdown in their eight previous Super Bowls with Belichick and Brady. In those eight games, the Patriots are averaging 0.375 points per game in the first quarter, a number that would be zero if they didn't manage to get a field goal from Stephen Gostkowski during the opening quarter against the Eagles last year.
Let's take a look at how ugly things have been for New England.
The drought is going to end this year for two reasons: The Patriots have been fast starters in the playoffs and the Rams have basically been the opposite. In their two playoff games this year, the Rams surrendered a total of 20 first quarter points with both the Cowboys and Saints getting a first quarter touchdown. On the flip side, the Patriots have been steamrolling teams during the first quarter this postseason with three touchdowns (one against the Chiefs and two against the Chargers). The drought started against the Rams and now it's going to end against the Rams.
2. Patriots have a 100-yard rusher
The only thing crazier than the Patriots inability to score during the first quarter might be the fact that they've NEVER had a 100-yard rusher in a Super Bowl, and this time, we're not just talking about the Belichick-Brady era. In their franchise history, the Patriots have been to 10 Super Bowls and not once have they produced a 100-yard rusher. Of course, this time they're going to have Sony Michel on their team and that's why this drought is finally going to end.
Michel has been on an absolute tear during the postseason. Not only did the rookie running back go over 100 yards in each of the Patriots' playoff wins, but he's also totaled five touchdowns in those two games. Michel is basically a matchup nightmare for a Rams defense that surrendered 5.1 yards per carry this year, which ranked dead last in the NFL in 2018. If Michel pulls this off, he could kill two birds with one stone -- sorry, PETA, I mean, he could feed two birds with one scone -- if he scores a first quarter touchdown on his way to a 100-yard game.
From Gladys Knight's anthem to who will score first to Maroon 5 to the Super Bowl MVP, get everything you need to make the right picks for Sunday in our Ultimate Super Bowl Props guide.
3. Jared Goff throws for more yards than Tom Brady
On the surface, this prediction seems kind of crazy and that's because Brady has been an unstoppable machine in his past two Super Bowls. Not only did Brady throw for 466 yards in a Super Bowl LI win over the Falcons, but he followed that up one year later by throwing for 505 yards in a Super Bowl LII loss to the Eagles. Those two numbers are notable because they just happen to be the top two passing performances in Super Bowl history. Yup, Brady has both of them.
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Of course, this prediction isn't necessarily a knock on Brady, but more of a prediction of how the game will play out. As we previously mentioned in our second bold prediction, the Rams gave up an NFL-worst 5.1 yards per carry in 2018, which means the Patriots are likely going to design a game plan to take advantage of that. Basically, it won't be surprising if New England's offense revolves around Michel, which would mean fewer passing yards for Brady. Also, we all know that Belichick loves to take away the other team's best weapon, and for the Rams, that will likely mean that New England will do everything possible to shut down Todd Gurley and a Los Angeles rushing attack that ranked third in the NFL in 2018. The Patriots will basically dare Goff to beat them and Goff will respond to that dare by throwing for more than 300 yards.
4. Rob Gronkowski finishes with more than 125 receiving yards
If this were any other year, this probably wouldn't be too bold of a prediction, but this season, this qualifies as bold, because Gronk just had one of the worst years of his career. Including the playoffs, Gronk was on the field for 15 games in 2018 and he only finished two of those with more than 100 receiving yards. Although he hit the 100-yard mark twice, Gronk didn't hit 125 yards a single time in 2018 (His season-high came in Week 1 when finished with 123 yards in a 27-20 win over the Texans).
If you watched Gronk play in 2018, it was pretty clear why he was mulling retirement after the Super Bowl last season and that's because his body seems to be pretty beat up. The advantage for Gronk going into the Super Bowl is that the Patriots had a bye week for the second time in a month, which means Gronk has basically had two extra weeks to recover since the end of the regular season. The prediction here is that a refreshed Gronk goes off on the Rams with more than 125 receiving yards. The thing about Gronk is that he always seems to thrive in clutch situations. Not only did he put up 79 yards in New England's divisional round win over the Chiefs, but he also had 116 yards and two touchdowns during the Patriots Super Bowl LII loss to the Eagles last season.
5. Aaron Donald ties Super Bowl sack record
Although the Patriots are going to do everything in their power to prevent Aaron Donald from destroying Tom Brady, the prediction here is that Brady still gets destroyed. The one thing working in Brady's favor is that he has one of the quickest releases in the NFL. As a matter fact, Brady throws the ball so quickly that Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa actually got frustrated with him when the Chargers played the Patriots during the Divisional Round.
Due to his lightning fast release, Brady hasn't been sacked at all during the postseason, which means that Donald is probably going to need some help and that's where the Rams' secondary comes in. If Rams can get some solid coverage against the Patriots, Brady won't be able to throw it so quickly, which could lead to one or two coverage sacks for Donald. Of course, even if Donald doesn't get any help, he still has the potential to take over a game, which we saw him do many times during a 2018 season where he led the NFL with 20.5 sacks. To tie the individual Super Bowl record, Donald will have to rack up at least three sacks.
6. A non-quarterback throws a touchdown pass
6a. That position player is Julian Edelman
If Sean McVay and Bill Belichick have one thing in common, it's that they both love to get tricky with their play-calling, which means there's a good chance we'll see someone who's not a quarterback throw a touchdown pass in Super Bowl LIII. On the Patriots' end, Tom Brady will probably be begging Bill Belichick for another chance to catch a ball after dropping the easiest pass of all time during New England's Super Bowl loss to the Eagles last year.
Yikes.
The Patriots have multiple position players who could potentially throw a touchdown pass, including Julian Edelman (Edelman threw two passes this year for 43 yards). For the Rams, the second best quarterback on their team might not even be a quarterback and that's because punter Johnny Hekker is known for his absurdly accurate right arm. Hekker has completed 11 passes in his career for 156 yards and a touchdown and it wouldn't be surprising at all if McVay calls his punter's number during the Super Bowl. Of course, Belichick will probably be looking for the fake punt, which means it might make more sense to have Hekker throw a pass on a fake field goal (Hekker was the only non-quarterback to throw a pass for the Rams in 2018).
7. There'a a blocked field goal in the game
If we know one thing about Belichick, it's that he loves to exploit any weakness he can find and there's a chance that Rams could have weakness in their kicking game on Sunday. After watching Greg Zuerlein injure his plant foot during the NFC title game, the Rams have been playing it safe with their kicker by limiting him in practice. The thing about kicking field goals is that everything is about timing and if Zuerlein is missing some practice, that could throw off the Rams kicking unit just enough to make Belichick want to try something risky, like going for an all-out block. The other reason a block could be possible is because both coaches in this game have no issue trying longer field goals and that's when a block usually occurs. Over the past two seasons, there have been a total of 31 blocked field goals, with 22 of those coming on kicks of 43 yards or more.
These two teams have also both shown they can block a kick. Although neither team blocked a field goal in 2018, both of these teams did block a field goal during the 2017 season. And now, just for fun, let's watch the most infamous blocked field goal in Super Bowl history.
That might go down as the worst attempted pass of all-time.
8. We see the longest punt return in Super Bowl history
With an average of 10.2 yards per return, the Rams were one of the best punt returning teams in 2018, which isn't good news for the Patriots, because they happened to struggle with their punt coverage. The Patriots punted the ball 64 times this year and gave up 10.2 yards per return, making New England one of just eight teams that surrendered a double-digit number in return yards.
For the Patriots, that could be a recipe for disaster since they have try and stop JoJo Natson, who was one of the best punt returners in the NFL this season. Natson averaged 10.8 yards per return in 2018, which ranked sixth in the NFL. You know what, let's take a quick break and check out his longest return from the year in the video below.
The reason this prediction is bold is because, for some reason, there's almost never any long punt returns in the Super Bowl. Over the past 25 years, there's only been ONE return that went for more than 35 yards and that came in Super Bowl 50 when Carolina's Jordan Norwood set the Super Bowl record with a 61-yard return during the Panthers' 24-10 loss to the Broncos, which means someone has to get 62 yards if they want to break the record.
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