Notre Dame’s Playoff status: Dispelling 7 myths - SB Nation

Not sure how we got to the point where a lot of people think an undefeated Notre Dame is undeserving of a Playoff spot, but here we are.

The fact that the Irish are expected to lose to Clemson has become conflated with different weird notions, like the idea that Notre Dame isn’t any good or didn’t deserve to be considered, due to its conference independence or non-grueling schedule.

So there are several overlapping misconceptions to correct.

Myth No. 1: Notre Dame isn’t as talented as the rest of the field.

The Irish are adept at developing talent, particularly on defense, where a bevy of upperclassmen appear telepathically linked.

But any suggestion that Notre Dame isn’t loaded with elite talent completely misses the point. Take the following:

A composite Rivals ranking of the past five years of recruiting reveals the following top 10: Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, Georgia, USC, LSU, a tie between Clemson and Auburn, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma.

If recruiting rankings were gospel, The Irish should be playing in a lesser New Year’s Six bowl this week, not taking on the Tigers in JerryWorld for a chance to play for the national title Jan. 7. And neither Florida State nor USC should be sitting at home with losing records and no bowl bids.

Per the 247Sports Composite — which combines multiple recruiting rankings, including Rivals — the Irish entered 2018 recruiting at a national championship level. A team with this talent level going 12-0 against this schedule is not a big surprise.

Slightly more than half of Notre Dame’s signees over the last four years are blue-chippers, only 2 percentage points behind Oklahoma, but nobody’s trying to argue the Sooners are dramatically overachieving inferior recruiting.

Myth No. 2: Notre Dame hasn’t played nearly as well as other Playoff entrants.

One of these position groups is not like the other ... and it ain’t Notre Dame’s.

Bill Connelly’s advanced Playoff tale of the tape

Notre Dame hasn’t won sexy or beaten a bunch of top names, but it also is between average and very good at basically every facet of football, which very few teams can ever claim — oh, and it hasn’t lost. Consistency is important.

You don’t get to this stage by experiencing dramatic ups and downs, but OU was the most volatile team of the bunch, piecing together eight performances in the 80th percentile or higher but also four at 70 percent or lower in their last five games.

Myth No. 3: More qualified teams were left out in order to include the Irish.

That usually refers to Georgia or Ohio State, both of which suffered blowout losses. (You could also argue for undefeated UCF, though one-loss Oklahoma would probably be your target there, rather than a fellow unbeaten team.)

Let’s look at a few rankings that judge teams based on how they’ve played to this point, rather than try to guess who would win a game going forward. The Irish are first or second among this group in all these categories — again, in addition to being undefeated.

Resume rankings

Advanced stat category	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Georgia
Advanced stat category	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Georgia
Strength of record	2	4	5
Game control	5	16	2
Resume S&P	6	7	3
Adjusted Win-Loss	3	4	6

ESPN and Bill Connelly

As for power rankings, which attempt to guess which team would win a game if they played tomorrow on a neutral field, the Irish tend to rank a tick behind Georgia (which doesn’t matter much to the committee, because the Dawgs lost two games to Notre Dame’s zero) and ahead of Ohio State. Many reasonable people would pick Georgia to beat Notre Dame in a bowl, but that bowl ain’t happening.

Power ranking comparison

Advanced stat category	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Georgia
Advanced stat category	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Georgia
Massey Computer Composite	4	5	3
Sagarin	7	4	3
ESPN Team Efficiencies	6	8	2
ESPN Football Power Index	7	5	3
S&P+	6	7	3
Simple Ratings System	5	6	3
FEI	5	8	2
Billinglsey + MOV	6	4	3
Congrove Power Ranking	3	4	7

Myth No. 4: Notre Dame is only in because it’s a big TV draw.

The simulated BCS ranking — which isn’t even capable of caring about ESPN’s finances — would’ve had the Irish quite comfortably in the top four.

Myth No. 5: Notre Dame’s independent status means it doesn’t challenge itself like teams in conferences do.

Remember the stuff the committee actually considers about any team’s schedule. Let’s establish three simple boxes to check:

Here’s how previous Playoff teams have graded out in strength-of-schedule metrics like the kind the selection committee’s known to use:

-Average Selection Sunday win total of FBS opponents: 6.7.

-Average wins minus losses against the Selection Sunday Playoff top 25: 3.

-Average wins minus losses against .500-or-better FBS teams: 7.8.

This year, the Irish:

Played 12 FBS opponents, who averaged 6.4 wins each [check]
Went 3-0 against Selection Sunday top 25 teams [check], including a top-10 Michigan
Went 8-0 against bowl teams [check]

Based on precedent established by the committee over the rest of the last five years, Notre Dame’s schedule basics are totally average for a Playoff entrant.

Myth No. 6: Notre Dame’s schedule this year was just weak, regardless of independence and raw records.

It’s true that this schedule would’ve looked a lot tougher in 1995, but the Irish can’t help the fact that a team like FSU is slumping hard.

Per some smarter math, the Irish played a perfectly decent schedule:

SOS rankings for college football’s unbeaten teams:

17. Alabama (0.834)

61. Notre Dame (0.888)

76. Clemson (0.901)

83. UCF (0.907)

A broader sampling (because there are a million ways to judge strength of schedule, and most people tend to gravitate toward whichever one ranks their favorite team the highest) shows dissent, but not enough to overcome Georgia having lost two more games than Notre Dame did.

SOS rankings comparison

Advanced stat categories	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Georgia
Advanced stat categories	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Georgia
S&P SOS	61	55	11
ESPN SOS	37	41	12
FEI SOS	85	40	4
Congrove SOS	4	5	29
Team rankings SOS	25	9	1
Average	42.4	30	11.4

Myth No. 7: If Notre Dame gets blown out by Clemson, it proves the committee made the wrong decision.

Results are not the fault or purview of the selection committee.

If a blowout happens, it doesn’t mean Notre Dame should’ve never been eligible to begin with. It just means the No. 2 seed beat the No. 3 seed. Clemson is really good!

(And besides, getting blown out by Clemson would still be preferable to getting blown out by Purdue or LSU, which certain other CFP contenders did this season.)

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