The meeting between lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor has been suitably burnished with all the garlanding and trappings of a modern-day UFC title fight, but just over a month out from the 25th anniversary of the promotion’s inaugural event, there’s also a distinctly nostalgic dynamic at play.

During that bygone, unregulated era, the early UFC sold its product as a platform for specialists to pit their respective disciplines against each other, so as to finally establish which martial art was supreme.

And, while those bouts might seem somewhat crude in comparison to the extraordinary standard of combat of today, they were not only equally gladiatorial, but the first bloody flickering of what is now a sporting phenomenon.

The respective stylings of Nurmagomedov (26-0 MMA, 10-0 UFC) and McGregor (21-3 MMA, 9-1 UFC) are no secret. All those years ago, their lightweight title bout at UFC 229 would certainly have been billed as a striker vs. grappler match-up.

The prevailing consensus ahead of their Saturday showdown at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas seems to be that whoever can dictate the terms of engagement – the Irishman keeping it on the feet or the Dagestani taking things to the mat – will emerge victorious.

Mark Henry, the noted coach who has tried to mastermind the downfall of both men, understands that train of thought but believes it to be slightly limited.

“I think it might have got oversimplified,” Henry told MMAjunkie. “Because Conor is one of the best strikers that’s ever fought in the UFC, if not the best, and Khabib is the best wrestler that’s ever been in the UFC. Because of that, the other things these guys have might get overlooked. Khabib has some power and, at times, I’ve seen some good grappling from Conor, like in the Max Holloway fight.”

Henry was in Eddie Alvarez’s corner when McGregor usurped him as lightweight champion in November 2016 at UFC 205, and likewise as Nurmagomedov took a unanimous decision over Edson Barboza last year at UFC 219.

Of their 20 combined UFC appearances, the fights in question are arguably the most telling examples of their respective capabilities. Henry, the man who also guided Frankie Edgar to the UFC lightweight crown, remembers them all too well.

“It’s not just Conor’s power that Khabib has probably never faced, but also his speed,” Henry said. “You just don’t see his counter. It’s that fast. The combination of Conor’s power, speed and precision is just in a whole different ballpark, and that’s what’s made Conor Conor.

“I was yelling for Edson (against Nurmagomedov) to not give him his back, and Khabib just said, ‘Don’t worry, Mark, I won’t take his back,’ then casually went back to what he was doing. He’s just hanging out and having a good time, which is pretty crazy and pretty dangerous.”

Rushing McGregor spectacularly backfired on Alvarez and Jose Aldo, but Nurmagomedov, particularly when in search of a takedown, tends to simply walk through strikes. As a coach who studies countless hours of fight footage, Henry believes Nurmagomedov should take inspiration from the early goings of one of McGregor’s previous bouts.

“I like the way Chad Mendes did (takedowns),” Henry explained. “Chad waited for Conor to throw, and that worked out better because Conor is better than anybody at countering the right hand. If you try and bum-rush him with right hands, it’ll come back fast and bite you. Khabib is going to have to be methodical, use a lot of feints and try to draw Conor in.”

Of course, McGregor went on to secure a second-round knockout over Mendes, who had taken the fight at UFC 189 on just over a week’s notice after then featherweight champ Aldo pulled out with a rib injury. However, Mendes did land four of seven takedown attempts, a statistic Nurmagomedov would likely be more than happy to amass against McGregor.

Henry reckons, now that the former World Combat Sambo champion has a title to defend, Nurmagomedov will leave nothing to chance when seeking to put McGregor on his back, a position he has generally not thrived in.

“Guys like Chad and Frankie can slip and work their way in off a punch, while with Khabib’s striking defense his head goes back, so it’s tough to shoot,” Henry said. “But Khabib has so many ways of getting a fight to the ground. He’s going to know what his bread and butter is in this fight, because he has played around in other fights, like against Michael Johnson, when he wanted to strike more.”

Were he advising McGregor, Henry would instruct him to diversify his output, be more evasive and disrupt his opponent’s ceaseless rhythm.

“If I’m Conor, I’m keeping it in the center of the octagon, and I’m kicking more,” Henry said. “Conor’s kicks are very good, but he hasn’t been throwing them as much, and they could throw Khabib off his pace. The more things Khabib has to worry about, the better it is for Conor.

“And remember, Conor has a lot of kicks, from the straight-front, the spins and the low kicks to the side. But I just think that Conor is doing less and less of the movement, feints and kicks, so it’s getting easier to beat him.”

A quick glance at McGregor’s record is all you’d need to know that he does is best work in the opening two rounds – all but two of his 21 career victories have come prior to the final bell. His endurance, or lack thereof, has been called into question more than once and, as seen from the third round on in his rematch with Nate Diaz, the ferocity of his punches can diminish.
For Henry, should the fight go all 25 minutes, a distance each man has gone just once, the first fighter to ever concurrently lord over two UFC divisions will be returning to Dublin without the strap.

“He’s 100 percent not going to win a decision, but Conor could knock him out in the first round, and you can’t be surprised by that,” Henry said. “He’s done it so many times, he has that capability, so it would be no shocker.

“If not by halfway through the third round, it doesn’t happen. Conor is still strong in the second round but. Once Khabib senses that he’s tiring, I think he’ll put it into another gear and finish him. When you’re there, and he’s right in front of you, you just see how nasty Khabib is.”

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