NASCAR Cup Series at Charlotte: Starting lineup breakdown

7:27 PM ET

Bob PockrassNASCAR
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CONCORD, N.C. - It doesn't seem as if there is a safe place on the new Charlotte Motor Speedway road course.

The 17-turn, 2.28-mile course has danger spots throughout. But possibly the most dangerous will be a makeshift chicane on the backstretch near Turn 3. NASCAR and the track have made the chicane out of various forms of curbing and speed bumps.

As part of the chicane, there is a protruding tire wall, which was clipped by Austin Dillon in practice and Denny Hamlin in qualifying. Hamlin will have to go to a backup.

"The bus stop on the back straightaway there is pretty gnarly," said road-course ace AJ Allmendinger. "In race conditions, it's going to be really gnarly -- whether it is turbulent air or whether you find yourself side-by-side going in there."

"It's going to be a challenge for NASCAR to make the right call if somebody gets shoved and has to short-cut it, but it's all challenging. You can get in trouble any part of the race track. To me, that's what makes it fun."

Can drivers really expect to get through the entire weekend unscathed? Even polesitter Kurt Busch isn"t so sure. He agreed that the chicane on the backstretch is the most treacherous of areas.

"There's a lot of speed to be gained and a lot of speed to be lost," Busch said about that chicane. "When we were here testing the tire barrier didn't seem as close to the racing groove as it is now, so the risk versus reward it's a huge penalty when you scrape that tire barrier versus the speed you're going to gain, so that's where I put most of my focus."

Martin Truex Jr. is hopeful he can avoid damage.

"It's so fast and a little slick there because your plan is to come out of that chicane and be as close to that tire wall as you can be because that's where the speed is," Truex said. "If you get in the middle of that chicane and all of a sudden the back of the car steps out a little bit, which we've seen a couple of guys do, you've got to catch it.

"You find your left-front tire in that tire wall - there's just not a lot of room for error."

The race is the elimination race for the first round of the playoffs, meaning drivers have a lot on the line. A reminder: The tiebreaker is the best finish in the round and if there is still a tie, the second-best finish and then the third-best finish. If all the finishes are the same, it's who earned the tiebreaker first in the round.

Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. have clinched spots in the next round while Kevin Harvick clinches by starting the race. The scenario for other drivers is included in the breakdown, but here is how they rank as far as the tiebreaker: Kyle Larson (best finishes 2nd/other finish 7th), Joey Logano (4th/14th), Chase Elliott (4th/36th), Aric Almirola (5th/6th), Ryan Blaney (5th/19th), Austin Dillon (6th/11th), Jimmie Johnson (8th/22nd), Clint Bowyer (10th/23rd), Erik Jones (11th/40th), Alex Bowman (12th/19th), Denny Hamlin (16th/32nd), Kurt Busch (18th/21st).

Here is the lineup breakdown for the Bank of America Roval 400:

1. Kurt Busch (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 41 Ford): Busch would need 43 points to clinch if Bowyer, Johnson, Jones or Hamlin wins, 41 points if Blaney wins and 40 points if anyone else wins. He's 15 points ahead of the current cutoff. He's good enough on road courses to pile up some stage points - being on the pole certainly helps for that -- and then see what he has to do.

2. AJ Allmendinger (JTG Daugherty Racing No. 47 Chevrolet): It was announced Tuesday that Allmendinger wouldn't return to this car in 2019. He probably would love nothing better than to win this race.

3. Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsports No. 88 Chevrolet): Bowman would clinch with 53 points if Bowyer, Johnson, Jones or Hamlin wins, 51 points if Blaney wins and 50 points if anyone else wins. He's 11th in the standings and five points ahead of the cutoff. He just needs to run his race and see what happens. He did his job Friday in earning this solid starting spot.

4. Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet): Elliott can clinch a spot in the next round with 48 points if Bowyer, Johnson, Jones or Hamlin wins; 46 points if Ryan Blaney wins or 45 points if another driver wins. He's currently 10 points ahead of the cutoff (he's tied with Dillon). The key: He has confidence on road courses with a win at Watkins Glen.

5. Kyle Larson (Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet): Larson would need 40 points to clinch if Bowyer, Johnson, Jones or Hamlin wins, 38 points if Blaney wins and 37 points if anyone else wins. He's 17 points ahead of the current cutoff. Good thing he didn't have any distractions this week other than getting married.

6. Jimmie Johnson (Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet): Johnson's only way of controlling his own destiny is with a win. At 14th in the standings, he's six points behind Blaney for the current cutoff. The only thing worse than giving him the math throughout the race would be asking him to win by fuel mileage.

7. Clint Bowyer (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford): If Bowyer sweeps both stages and finishes second, he could clinch a spot in the next round as long as Johnson, Jones or Hamlin doesn't win. He's currently four points behind Blaney for the final spot. Something tells me that they aren't going to fill Bowyer's head with math during the race and just tell him to go race.

8. Jamie McMurray (Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 Chevrolet): If this is McMurray's last road-course race, he'll hope he can make it a fun one. His 2019 prospects beyond the Daytona 500 look dim.

9. Ryan Blaney (Team Penske No. 12 Ford): Blaney can clinch a spot in the next round with 54 points (finishing second and earning 19 of 20 points in stages or finishing third and sweeping the stages) if Bowyer, Johnson, Jones or Hamlin wins; 52 points if Bowman wins and 51 points if anyone else wins. He's just four points ahead of Bowyer on the bubble. He probably can't points race, he needs to race hard and see where things fall.

10. Chris Buescher (JTG Daugherty Racing No. 37 Chevrolet): Buescher told ESPN.com he wasn't worried a month ago about his future with the team, and team co-owner Tad Geschickter confirmed Friday that Buescher will be back next season. FYI, Buescher made no prediction for the Charlotte road course.

11. Daniel Hemric (Richard Childress Racing No. 8 Chevrolet): Hemric is starting just the second Cup race of his career. He will make plenty more next year for RCR.

12. Erik Jones (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota): At 21 points behind the cutoff, Jones needs to win to clinch a spot in the next round. Jones figures someone has to win, so why not him? He was seventh at Sonoma and fifth at The Glen.

13. Martin Truex Jr. (Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota): Truex has already clinched a spot in the next round on points. His longtime girlfriend, Sherry Pollex, will be driving the pace car on the pace laps. Wonder how much he paid the pole-sitter to give the pace car a few polite or not-so-polite taps, lol.

14. Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota): The win last week at Richmond means that Busch has no worries about moving to the next round. Considering those who have clinched are Busch, Truex, Keselowski and Harvick (after the green flag), it would be awesome to see them in a no-holds-barred race to the finish.

15. Joey Logano (Team Penske No. 22 Ford): Logano can clinch a spot in the next round with 33 points (a fourth-place finish if no stage points), 31 points (sixth) if Blaney wins and just 30 points (seventh) as long as Bowyer, Johnson, Jones and Hamlin don't win. At 35 points ahead of the cutoff, he's in good shape. Just don't wreck in the first stage.

16. Trevor Bayne (Roush Fenway Racing No. 6 Ford): Bayne would love a great performance as he looks for a ride for next year. But he can't do it at the expense of angering a prospective 2019 team owner.

17. Daniel Suarez (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota): He holds the key to silly season. A win could certainly help as he continues to look for a 2019 ride.

18. Michael McDowell (Front Row Motorsports No. 34 Ford): McDowell is 26th in the standings, three points behind teammate David Ragan in 25th. It pretty much shows that the drivers are fairly equal in similar equipment.

19. Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford): Harvick clinches a spot in the next round just by rolling off pit road for the start of the race. That shouldn't be a problem. It's good to have won seven races already this year.

20. Aric Almirola (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 10 Ford): Almriola can clinch a spot in the next round with 35 points (second-place finish if no stage points) if Bowyer, Johnson, Jones or Hamlin wins; 33 points (fourth) if Blaney wins and 32 points (fifth) if anyone else wins. He shouldn't focus on a top-5 - at 23 points ahead of the current cutoff, a top-10 should be more than enough.

21. William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet): Byron's two goals likely are to win the rookie of the year and finish top-20 in points. He's in good shape for the first with a 114-point edge on Bubba Wallace. But he needs 67 points to catch 20th-place Suarez.

22. Paul Menard (Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford): Menard is a solid road-course racer and typically takes care of his equipment. Don't be surprised to see him with a shot at the end. But considering he's not in the playoffs, don't be surprised to see him with a shot at the end - and then see him get dumped by someone desperate to get to the next round.

23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Roush Fenway Racing No. 17 Ford): This probably won't be a fun race for Stenhouse, who crashed hard in practice and the team repaired the entire rear of the car. But at least there's no pressure.

24. Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet): Dillon can clinch a spot in the next round with 48 points if Bowyer, Johnson, Jones or Hamlin wins; 46 points if Ryan Blaney wins or 45 points if another driver wins. He's currently 10 points ahead of the cutoff so he needs to go out and run good. Not great, but good. Stage points would help.

25. Brad Keselowski (Team Penske No. 2 Ford): Keselowksi is one of four drivers who has no worries. Sure, he'd love more playoff points. But would he use the bumper for them knowing that payback could come in another playoff round?

26. Ty Dillon (Germain Racing No. 13 Chevrolet): Dillon reiterated this week that he made a commitment to Germain Racing through 2020, and he intends to honor that commitment. There's something to be said about not being under grandfather's thumb every day.

27. Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota): Hamlin is in a world of hurt. He's 21 points behind the cutoff, not to mention he'd have to leap over three other drivers in the standings. His best bet is to win and yet he will start at the rear of the field as he crashed in qualifying and will start with a backup car. If he needs to use the bumper to make gains, so be it.

28. Matt DiBenedetto (Go Fas Racing No. 32 Ford): DiBenedetto continues to look for a ride for next year, but this probably isn't the place for him to make some noise.

29. Ryan Newman (Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet): Newman leads the "best of the rest" by 17 points over Menard. Not sure that's a big deal but its something.

30. David Ragan (Front Row Motorsports No. 38 Ford): Ragan, not exactly a road-course ace, will try to keep the car on track. We'll see how it goes.

31. Justin Marks (Premium Motorsports No. 15 Chevrolet): Marks, who has 78 career starts across NASCAR's three national series including an Xfinity win in 2016 at Mid-Ohio, says this is his last NASCAR start. Marks: "I've sort of walked this line in the middle of being an entrepreneur and business owner and race-car driver for a number of years. I have got some pretty lofty aspirations the next few years [in business] professionally and I feel like it's time to transition full-time to chasing those opportunities."

32. Regan Smith (Leavine Family Racing No. 95 Chevrolet): This very well could be Smith's last race in this car as Kasey Kahne will possibly be back next week at Dover.

33. Cole Whitt (TriStar Motorsports No. 72 Chevrolet): Whitt's last Cup race was The Glen, where he finished 34th.

34. Bubba Wallace (Richard Petty Motorsports No. 43 Chevrolet): The best thing about this road course is that maybe it evens the field a little bit, and for a driver such as Wallace who has struggled on road courses, at least that gives him some hope.

35. Ross Chastain (Premium Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet): Chastain moves to this car as Justin Marks gets the main Premium seat.

36. J.J. Yeley (BK Racing No. 23 Toyota): Yeley already has made 10 Cup starts this year.

37. Jeffrey Earnhardt (Gaunt Brothers Racing No. 96 Toyota): Someone please tell Jeffrey that Matt Kenseth isn't driving the No. 6 so if he wants payback for the spin at Richmond, it should come another day.

38. Landon Cassill (StarCom Racing No. 00 Chevrolet): They are taking bets next week in Dover on just how long Cassill's hair will be by the time he gets there.

39. Stanton Barrett (Rick Ware Racing No. 51 Chevrolet): This will be the Hollywood stuntman's first Cup start since 2008 and first NASCAR national series race since 2016.

40. Timmy Hill (Carl Long Motorsports No. 66 Toyota): Hill does a good job of taking this equipment and staying out of the way.

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