Finally, there was another big-name signing this offseason. Saturday afternoon, the baseball world learned that the Cubs had scooped up free agent starting pitcher Yu Darvish on a six-year deal worth a base of $126 million that could grow to $150M with incentives.
Now we can focus on just how good the Cubs' newish rotation can be, given that it's surely rounded out now. In 2016, when the Cubs were the best team in baseball and World Series champions, they had a 3.15 rotation ERA, which was far and away the best in baseball (the Nationals' 3.51 was second). Last year, the Cubs dipped to seventh in the majors at 3.95, though some of that was the World Series hangover of a first half, as they pitched to a 3.78 ERA in the second half.
Still, there was regression. Now John Lackey and Jake Arrieta are out in favor of Tyler Chatwood and Yu Darvish.
Let's take a look at the prospects for 2018, pitcher by pitcher:
Yu Darvish
He was inconsistent last season, but it was his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. In all, he had a 3.86 ERA (118 ERA+) with 209 strikeouts in 186 2/3 innings. He battled inconsistency, but made some tweaks and was dominant down the stretch. He had a 0.47 ERA with 21 strikeouts against one walk in 19 1/3 innings in his last three regular-season starts. In his first two postseason starts, he allowed just two earned runs in 11 1/3 innings (1.59 ERA) with 14 strikeouts against one walk. He was awful in two World Series starts, but we've since learned he was tipping his pitches.
There's every reason to believe Darvish will be a frontline pitcher this coming season, even if some wouldn't consider him whatever their definition of an "ace" is.
Jose Quintana
From 2014-16, Quintana pitched to a 3.29 ERA (118 ERA+) for the White Sox, averaging over 205 innings per season. He had a rough first half last season amid swirling trade rumors. For the Cubs after the trade, he was 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA (117 ERA+), holding opponents to a .228/.292/.367 slash. He had one awful postseason start, but it was preceded by two good starts. Most projection systems have him being the Cubs' best starter.
Like Darvish, there's every reason to believe Quintana is a frontline starter, even if not an "ace."
Kyle Hendricks
On the shoulders of an MLB-best 2.13 ERA, Hendricks finished third in Cy Young voting in 2016 and had a good postseason as well. He was tired to start 2017, though, having lost at least three miles per hour off his pitches. After returning from injury in late July, he was back in form. In Hendricks's last 13 starts, he had a 2.19 ERA. In those 13 starts, he allowed more than two runs just three times and he didn't give up more than three runs once. He was brilliant in Game 1 of the NLDS, outdueling Stephen Strasburg, but had two subpar outings after that.
Still, I expect Hendricks to be mostly what we saw in 2016 and the latter half of 2017 as we move into 2018. As long as his velocity stays up, there's no reason to expect anything otherwise.
That's three frontline starters. Order them however you wish.
Jon Lester
Lester is 34 years old with 2,184 1/3 regular-season innings and 148 more postseason innings of wear and tear on his left arm. He has had and will continue to have an excellent career, but I also think what we saw last year was the first year of his decline. No shame in that. It happens to everyone.
After finishing second in Cy Young voting and pitching mostly excellently in the 2016 championship run, he regressed to a 4.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP last season. His strikeout rate was still there (in fact, it rose), but he was being hit a lot harder. Here's the opposing slash line against him comparison:
2016: .211/.268/.334
2017: .259/.320/.430
Most projection systems have Lester in the range of 200 innings but with an ERA getting close to 4.00. That's more innings eater than frontline starter, but that's fair for this point in his career, especially since I expect him to be the Cubs' No. 4 starter in terms of performance.
He's 34-year-old Jon Lester, but you could do much worse than 34-year-old Jon Lester as your four.
Tyler Chatwood
After missing all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery, Chatwood was good in 2016, going 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA (125 ERA+). Last year, he regressed to 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA, but that's still a 107 ERA+, thanks to Chatwood having pitched for the Rockies in Coors Field. How much did Coors hurt him? Chatwood had a 6.01 home ERA compared to 3.49 on the road. The WHIP difference (1.68 in Coors, 1.23 on the road) is just as jarring.
We can't expect that Chatwood's 77 1/3 road innings last year translate to how he'll pitch in, say, 165 innings in 2018, but he has a career 3.75 ERA in 393 2/3 innings outside Coors.
It would be folly to suggest that Chatwood is close to an ace or even a frontline starter, but he's the five here. He's more than acceptable as a five on a contending team, especially freed from the clutches of Coors.
Keep in mind, the Cubs' fifth starter in 2016 was Jason Hammel, and their five heading into last season was Brett Anderson.
Mike Montgomery remains the sixth guy/long relievern and he's as good as you can find in baseball in that role.
On the whole, this is a very good rotation. It's likely bound to perform better than 2017 but worse than 2016. The bullpen has good upside and we know about the offensive potential (here's who I think should leadoff, but you can get a glimpse at a possible batting order as well).
Point blank, the two-time defending NL Central champions are likely to run their streak to three, as things currently stand. This very good rotation will likely be a big reason why.
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