When Minnesota Timberwolves fans saw Jimmy Butler collapse to the Toyota Center floor in Houston Friday night, clutch his knee and then have to be helped to the locker room by two teammates -- an especially bad sign given Butler's warrior mentality -- the fans assumed the worst.
How could they not? Minnesota sports fans are conditioned to assume the worst. It's a fatalism that goes back generations, buttressed by Gary Anderson's missed field goal and Joe Smith's illegal contract and Brett Favre's interception and the early retirement of Kirby Puckett and the Timberwolves losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the franchise's only Western Conference finals appearance. If things seem like they are going right, they will soon go wrong. That's just the deal here in Minnesota.
But then something strange happened. On Saturday, the man who has been the central piece to the Timberwolves' turnaround this season got an MRI … and the answer wasn't the worst thing ever. It wasn't an ACL tear that would sideline Butler for a year. It was a meniscal injury. Just how bad is unknown at this moment. Butler could be looking at 3-6 weeks recovery time for a meniscus tear (meniscectomy) and 3-6 months for meniscus tear (full repair). Hopefully it's short enough to get Butler back in time for the first round of the playoffs.
In a state that's conditioned to receive its worst sports news when its teams are having their greatest success, the Timberwolves possibly losing Butler for only a couple months comes across as a strange sort of blessing. The present might have just taken a massive hit, but the promising future is still intact.
Now the most pressing question is this: Is a playoff appearance for the Butler-less Wolves still going to happen?
A day ago this was beyond doubt. The Timberwolves are sitting at 36-26, in line for a four-seed in the Western Conference playoffs. They would end the longest playoff drought in the NBA by getting home-court advantage in the first round. For a team that bumbled to a 31-51 record a year ago, this would have been an unmitigated success.
But without Butler?
Uh oh.
In a bunched-up Western Conference, the Timberwolves, currently sitting between a three-seed and a four-seed, are only three games up on the nine-seed. And the 10-seed is the streaking Utah Jazz. So as promising as this season has looked for the Timberwolves, even a playoff appearance is no longer assured.
That's because there is only a handful of players in the NBA who have been more important to their team's success as Butler has for the Timberwolves'. And now they will be without him. Just how long, we'll soon find out.
You can make an argument that there aren't five other players in the NBA more important to their team than Butler has been to these Wolves. LeBron James, certainly. Giannis Antetokounmpo as well. Anthony Davis, probably. And James Harden is the MVP leader, so even though Houston has depth, he's got to be part of it.
But past those four superstars? I think Butler is more important to the Wolves than Russell Westbrook is to the Oklahoma City Thunder, or than Kyrie Irving is to the Boston Celtics, or than DeMar DeRozan is to the Toronto Raptors, or than any single player is to the stacked Golden State Warriors.
The stats would back this up. Butler is 18th in the NBA in player efficiency rating and sixth in the NBA in win shares, and is tops on the team in points, shot attempts, steals and minutes. More than that is the complete culture shift he's engineered this season. I know there are still issues with the Wolves' occasional lollygagging, especially on defense, but the difference between a year ago and today is night and day. More than any other reason, it's the intangibles that have put Butler on the fringes of the MVP conversation.
And now the Wolves have to rely on … Andrew Wiggins?
That's right. Instead of the get-after-it Butler, the Wolves' playoff chances now rest in the talented but often inconsistent, often inefficient hands of Wiggins. Karl-Anthony Towns' usage will certainly go up, which is a good thing for one of the most efficient and underutilized stars in the NBA. But so much of the Wolves' success will now depend on Wiggins. And what Wiggins has become is an incredibly talented player who has ultimately fallen far short of his sky-high expectations. Yes, he can score, but not particularly efficiently. His defense and rebounding may be better than a year ago, but that's not saying much. Maybe Wiggins' trajectory changes now that there's a void in the team's leadership with Butler gone; maybe Wiggins can step into that. But what in Wiggins' short career indicates he has that alpha dog mentality to lead a winning team?
As an NBA fan and someone who lives in Minnesota, I was pleasantly surprised that Butler's injury was "only" a meniscus tear. From the moment I watched him fall to the floor, I assumed the worst. Part of that is Minnesota fatalism. Part of that is that so many of this league's superstars have been felled by injury this season.
Timberwolves fans can sleep a bit easier tonight knowing that the future of this promising young franchise isn't destroyed with a torn Butler ACL.
But the more immediate future that was supposed to include a home playoff series? That's not just in doubt; it feels highly unlikely. The question isn't whether the Wolves' will get to host a playoff series with home-court advantage. The question is whether Butler's injury means the longest playoff drought in the NBA continues for one more season.
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