MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom provides an in-depth breakdown of all of UFC Fight Night 125’s top bouts. Today, we look at betting and fantasy options for the card.

UFC 221 takes place today at Perth Arena in Perth, Western Australia. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on FS1 and UFC Fight Pass.

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Disclaimer: The following section is designed for entertainment purposes only. The unit sizes serve as a rough representation of the percentage of bankroll risked, as well as my confidence in said plays. If you intend on gambling, I suggest that you do so responsibly and legally, as it is at your own risk. All lines are drawn from 5Dimes.eu on the day this article was published (Feb. 9, 2018).

Dan’s plays

Playable parlay pieces (my most confident favorites):

  • Alexander Volkanovski (-220)

Summary: My recommended parlay pieces are typically my most confident picks (within a reasonable price range) that could serve as potential legs for whatever play you’re trying to put together.

With most of the fights on the card being deceptively competitive matchups or slightly inflated favorites, I elected to go with Alexander Volkanovski (16 -1 MMA, 3-0 UFC), who faces Jeremy Kennedy (11-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC).

Kennedy is one of Canada’s brightest prospects, and there is a lot to like about his game. However, this could be a case of Volkanovski being a bad stylistic matchup for Kennedy.

The 25-year-old Canadian has a complete skill set and a high ceiling, but he’s heavily reliant on the wrestling aspect of his game to establish terms. Against Volkanovski, Kennedy will be facing an accoladed wrestler who utilizes his short and stout frame well.

Volkanovski, like Kennedy, possesses good positional and lever awareness, and they both are quick to take away their opponents’ posts and options for escape. Should they stalemate each other in this department, then I still see Volkanovski having a slight edge standing, especially considering his potent punching power.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m a fan of Kennedy’s consistency and see big things for him in the future. I just think that this could be a case of one fighter running into a slightly better version of himself.

Straight plays:

  • Mark Hunt +140 (1 unit)

Summary: For my straight plays, I typically like to look for fighters – from underdogs to reasonable favorites – who I feel have a solid chance and price tag.

Considering that this card is rich in high-intangible matchups and firefights, I decided to put my money on one of the more consistent underdogs; I elected to go with Mark Hunt (13-11-1 MMA, 8-5-1 UFC), who faces Curtis Blaydes (9-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) in UFC 221’s co-headliner.

As stated in my co-main event breakdown, I’ve been high on Blaydes since his UFC debut, and he deserves to be the favorite here. And though I could see the NJCAA champion taking the previous paths set before him to outwrestle Hunt, I’m not sure if the equation is as easy as it appears on paper.

Hunt has steadily improved his takedown defense and getup ability over the years, and more importantly, he looks to be coming into this bout in top shape (for Hunt). Blaydes may have a higher athletic ceiling and brighter future ahead, but I believe this is another lesson of writing off a veteran too soon.

  • Israel Adesanya/Rob Wilkinson “won’t start round 3” -170 (1.5 units)

Summary:

For my lone prop play, I decided to take an angle on the matchup between Israel Adesanya (11-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) and Rob Wilkinson (11-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC), a fight that I don’t see making it’s way to a third round.

With Adesanya projected as the biggest betting favorite on the card (despite this being his UFC debut), it can be hard to take the money line or go deep on a parlay to support him. That said, depending on the betting houses you use, you can sometimes find prop bets that better suit your objective.

In this case, for example, we have a matchup of two fighters who have little experience past the first rounds of their contests. Wilkinson should have the on-paper advantages on the floor while Adesanya – a world-class kickboxer – will likely hold court on the feet. But if you watch Adesanya fight, you will see that he is no slouch when it comes to counter grappling and is very competent in transit.

When looking at Wilkinson, I see him making fight-to-fight improvements in his striking, but he seems to have a propensity to fade as the battle wears on, making it submission or bust for the Australian. For those reasons, I believe that this is a solid angle if you’re looking to sprinkle on this fight.

Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

  • Damien Brown vs. Dong Hyun Kim
  • Jussier Formiga vs. Ben Nguyen
  • Teruto Ishihara vs. Jose Quinonez
  • Ross Peason vs. Mizuto Hirota