Two days before the trade deadline, 12 days before his first appearance in the NBA All-Star Game, Kristaps Porzingis dunked on Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo at Madison Square Garden. The crowd cheered for a second, but then Porzingis crumpled to the floor, wincing and holding his left knee. He pounded the court with his fist. He went to the locker room without putting any weight on his left leg.
By now you already know that the injury was severe: a torn ACL, with a recovery timeline of about a year. The New York Knicks will be without their franchise player for the rest of this season and likely half of next season, too. All of a sudden, MSG is a much less fun place to watch basketball and the Knicks are essentially irrelevant. Here's a (pretty gloomy) look at where they go from here:
This season is lost
Maybe Michael Beasley can average 20 points the rest of the way. Maybe Frank Ntilikina and Trey Burke can be a fun one-two punch at point guard. Tim Hardaway Jr. will continue to have a green light to shoot from anywhere. New York has lost seven of its last nine games, though, and the Porzingis injury means its (slim) playoff hopes should be discarded. On the season, the Knicks have been outscored by 4.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench, largely because they get disorganized and sloppy without him.
New York is 23-32 and 11th in the East. It has a four-game lead on the 12th-place Brooklyn Nets, but major slippage wouldn't be surprising now. There just isn't much playmaking on this roster, and the Knicks could have less talent tomorrow than they do today. Which brings us to …
The trade deadline will be interesting
If there is a silver lining here, it is that New York has an excuse to make smart, long-term moves before the trade deadline (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET). Last Monday, Porzingis told reporters he wanted the front office to be buyers rather than sellers, reiterating that he is focused on winning and desperately wants to make the playoffs. A better plan would be to remain patient, trade veterans for picks and prospects and do nothing without considering how it will help the team two or three years from now. The Knicks can now pursue that strategy without fear of alienating Porzingis.
New York is finalizing one deal already which would send Willy Hernangomez, Porzingis' best friend on the team, to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for two second-round picks. That's a good return for a player who requested a trade, and you have to wonder how many more picks the Knicks might be able to get for role players Lance Thomas, Courtney Lee and Kyle O'Quinn.
What does this mean for Porzingis' potential contract extension?
Porzingis is eligible for a rookie contract extension in the summer. Back in November, his brother Janis said that signing it would not be a mere formality. Does this setback make the money more attractive to Porzingis? Would it make the Knicks hesitate to offer the max? I'd bet on the two sides coming to an agreement before next season starts, but this has to change the calculus a little bit. It would help if Porzingis could be convinced to buy into the front office's long-term plan, which should be focused on …
2019 free agency
Regardless of what moves they make, the Knicks are probably going to be awful for the rest of this season and most of next season, too. From a big-picture perspective, this actually isn't so bad. They can get another core piece in this June's draft, give Frank Ntilikina and the new guy lots of responsibility, add another young player in the draft after that and position themselves to be an attractive destination in the summer of 2019. By then, Porzingis should be back and healthy, Enes Kanter's massive contract will be off their books and Joakim Noah will have only one more year left on his deal (assuming he hasn't been bought out), making him easier to move.
Where does coach Jeff Hornacek fit in?
This is an extremely important question. It would be surprising if he did not finish the season with New York, but it is not clear that general manager Scott Perry is committed to him beyond that. Hornacek was hired by former team president Phil Jackson, and while the Knicks haven't underachieved this season, they have not exactly established their identity, either. Without Porzingis, will they fall apart or band together? Inspiring this locker room at a time like this is not easy, but it is his job.
What about Porzingis' long-term health?
The good news is that he's only 22 and he is a pure shooter. He'll almost certainly be rusty when he comes back, but he has time to develop into a true superstar and make people forget this ever happened. The worrying part is that he missed a couple of games in December because of a sore left knee and has a history of injuries on the left side of his body. Porzingis is special because of his combination of floor spacing, size and explosiveness, and it would be a shame if he lost some of his athleticism. After the rehabilitation, he will need to do everything in his power to limit the chances of something similar happening again.
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