Field Yates, ESPN Insider
It's finally draft day! The first round of the 2024 NFL draft starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC, and I can't wait to see where the top prospects land. Which signal-caller will the Washington Commanders select at No. 2? Will any of the other teams with high picks trade back with a QB-needy franchise? When will the first defensive player come off the board? And who will get one of these elite pass-catchers?
Putting together a final mock draft is tough. There are a lot of smokescreens this late in the game, and surprises typically start early in Round 1. Remember when the Texans traded up to No. 3 last year and shook everything up? Well, something unexpected could change the whole board again Thursday -- it's part of the reason we all love the draft. But after months of studying this talented class and calling sources around the league, I have one final mock draft to project the 32 first-round picks.
More from ESPN+:
Yates' top 200 rankings | Kiper's predictions
Miller's final mock | Reid's final mock
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
This pick has seemed like a formality since the moment Chicago agreed to trade Justin Fields to the Steelers -- and perhaps even further back than that. Williams is an electric talent who extends and creates plays with the best of them, and he would walk into an excellent situation in Chicago with an offense ready for liftoff.
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The Commanders have an intriguing dilemma at No. 2: Will they take the ultimate dual-threat QB in Daniels or the rocket-armed Drake Maye (North Carolina) to build their offense around? Ultimately, the signs continue to point toward Daniels as the more likely pick, and he would give Washington a jolt of offensive energy. He's ranked second overall on my board, and he dominated last season throwing the ball vertically and tucking it to run.
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
My stance on the No. 3 pick for the Patriots has been clear since they landed there at the end of the 2023 regular season. They have to stay put and take either Daniels or Maye, depending which one is still on the board. No need to change things up now, as here the Patriots would land the 21-year-old Maye to get their offense back on track. His combination of 6-foot-4 size, arm talent and toughness forecast a bright future. New England was 31st in offensive scoring last season (12.9 points per game), and there are still holes all over that unit, but improvement starts with landing the right QB.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
It will be tempting for GM Monti Ossenfort to field trade offers to move down, as QB-needy teams will certainly call Arizona given that three quarterbacks have already come off the board in this scenario. But not moving off No. 4 just reinforces how special Harrison is as a prospect. His 28 receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons rank first in the FBS, and there isn't a hole in his game. Arizona was 30th in receiving yards from wide receivers last season (1,790), but Kyler Murray would get a serious No. 1 target here.
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
What about the Chargers as a trade-back candidate for teams eyeing the quarterback class? Sure, but a deal doesn't come together in this scenario, and Los Angeles could certainly decide to kick off the new era of Chargers football under the duo of GM Joe Hortiz and coach Jim Harbaugh with a tenacious tone-setter along the offensive line. Latham's combination of power and footwork is rare, and he'd pair with Rashawn Slater to form an excellent tackle duo to help keep Justin Herbert upright and open up the run game.
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
It's no secret the Giants have done their homework on the quarterback class, but I don't believe it's a shoo-in that they would take one here -- even if Michigan's J.J. McCarthy is still available. New York hasn't had a 1,000-yard receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2018 (1,052), and it still doesn't have a legitimate No. 1 wideout. The gap between Harrison and Nabers isn't as big as you might think, and Daniel Jones and this Giants offense would love Nabers' explosive traits.
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
It would not surprise me if teams call Tennessee in an effort to trade up for Washington receiver Rome Odunze, but this is another situation where the board has fallen in such a way that it makes sense to just turn in the card. The Titans' most pressing need right now is left tackle -- they have to better protect second-year quarterback Will Levis -- and Alt is the best one on the board. He has a 6-foot-9 frame, nimble footwork and really good overall agility.
Projected trade: Minnesota can't wait any longer
Vikings get: No. 8
Falcons get: No. 11, No. 129 and a 2025 third-rounder
This is a smaller move up the board than we've discussed frequently during the pre-draft process -- Minnesota jumping into the 3-5 range -- but the Vikings can slide up just three spots at a much less prohibitive cost to snag a quarterback here based on the way the board is coming together.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
McCarthy would be in an excellent situation with Minnesota's supporting cast, and the Vikings would also preserve their 23rd overall pick by moving to only No. 8 to get him. McCarthy has the high-end accuracy to get the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, as well as the mobility to pick up yards on the ground. And I know Minnesota has Sam Darnold, but I believe McCarthy would start right away.
1:42
See why NFL scouts are excited about Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
Check out the plays that make Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy a top prospect in the 2024 NFL draft.
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
A strong case exists for the Bears to take Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, who would be an ideal fit in coach Matt Eberflus' defensive system. But Odunze is still here at No. 9, and he would help Chicago form a new-look receiver trio alongside DJ Moore and Keenan Allen that would instantly rank among the league's best. Odunze can make the tough catches and beat defenders once he has the ball in his hands.
Projected trade: Colts join the top 10
Colts get: No. 10
Jets get: No. 15 and No. 82
The Jets would love to recoup some draft capital after the Aaron Rodgers trade last April cost them their second-round pick. This move lands them a Day 2 selection but also keeps them in range for an offensive tackle if that's their ultimate goal in Round 1. And moving up could be in play for the Colts if any of the class' top playmakers start to slide.
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
I've heard some buzz from people around the league that suggests Indy wants to continue to build its offense around quarterback Anthony Richardson, and Bowers could be an instant game-changer. He'd be a massive boost for Richardson, as his excellent route running and after-the-catch traits make him a real problem for defensive coordinators. I like having Bowers team up with Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor. And besides, Bowers is simply too good of a player to last much longer than this in the draft.
Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
The Falcons have been widely viewed as the team to take the first defensive player in the draft at their original No. 8 slot, but they might still manage to do it even after the small move back. No defensive players in the top 10 here! Atlanta needs pass-rush help after finishing last in pass rush win rate (30.9%), and Murphy would surely provide it as one of the most disruptive players in the class. Throughout the pre-draft process, he has drawn some parallels to Grady Jarrett, and I love the idea of these two wreaking havoc together as teammates.
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
No team has been more difficult to size up in the first round during this pre-draft process than Denver. The Broncos could of course be in the market for a quarterback, with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson atop the depth chart at the moment. But they also have short- and long-term needs that better align with how the board might fall at No. 12. That includes a pass-rusher, as Denver was tied for 21st in sacks last season at 42. Turner, the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year, would provide an immediate boost. He tallied 10 sacks in 2023.
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Penix remains a hot early-Round 1 name as we get closer and closer to the draft, and Las Vegas is a logical landing spot after the team made only a moderate financial investment this offseason at the quarterback spot ($14 million per year for Gardner Minshew is, by quarterback standards, considered moderate). The rocket arm of Penix launching passes all over the yard to a wide receiver duo of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers is a whole lot of fun to envision.
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
We are all familiar enough with the draft to know that very few things are certain. That said, I would have a very hard time seeing the Saints pass on Fashanu if the board fell like this. The Saints have question marks at both offensive tackle spots, especially with Ryan Ramczyk's ongoing knee issue. Fashanu is a plug-and-play starter at left tackle, and New Orleans could slot him in there and then figure out where to move Trevor Penning. Fashanu has serious strength and quickness.
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Let's settle one of the biggest draft debates of the past month -- and one that has existed since the Jets acquired Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses this offseason. Should New York further invest in the offensive line or draft an immediate contributor at a different spot? I believe GM Joe Douglas will choose to add another big blocker after the Jets used 12 different offensive line combinations in 2023. Fuaga is a mauler who profiles as a long-term starter at tackle with the added ability to play guard. Landing him and picking up an extra pick would be a win for the Jets.
Projected trade: Eagles skip the line to tackle a need
Eagles get: No. 16 and No. 81
Seahawks get: No. 22 and No. 50
Eagles GM Howie Roseman likes to move around in Round 1, and after defensive struggles in the second half of last season, they could be nimble on Thursday night to address that side of the ball. And the Seahawks would be happy to acquire a second-round pick because they traded their own to the Giants at the 2023 deadline to land Leonard Williams.
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The Eagles need to get younger and faster in the secondary -- James Bradberry is turning 31 this summer, and Darius Slay is 33 -- and Mitchell is a perfect target. He broke up 40 passes over the past three seasons at Toledo and then aced his pre-draft process. Mitchell ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the combine, can play standout man-to-man coverage and has good size.
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Jacksonville has a need at cornerback, and Arnold has a case as the best in the entire class. He had a breakout season in 2024, with five interceptions and 11 pass breakups. He has a combination of instincts and short-area quickness that allow him to thrive at the top of routes.
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
On the heels of the news that Trey Hendrickson has requested a trade, Verse becomes that much more attractive of an option for the Bengals. He and 2023 first-round pick Myles Murphy would form the pass-rush foundation for the future, and Verse would be thrust into an immediate role if any Hendrickson deal is consummated. Verse has a great blend of in-line power and length. Cincinnati allowed 6.0 yards per play last season, highest in the NFL, so watch that side of the ball.
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
It has been a long time since the Rams made a first-round pick -- they took Jared Goff at No. 1 overall in 2016 -- but it has been much longer since we last saw this many quarterbacks in the first round. If Nix goes in addition to the other five we've already projected, this class would tie the 1983 group for the most in the common draft era. Matthew Stafford was great last season, but the best time for a team to invest in a QB is when it wants one, not when it needs one. This forward-thinking move would put the succession plan in place for Los Angeles. Nix is a precision passer who set an FBS record with his 77.4% completion rate last season.
1:48
How Bo Nix became a NFL top QB prospect
Check out some of the plays that make Oregon QB Bo Nix a top prospect for the 2024 NFL draft.
Graham Barton, G/C, Duke
The Steelers released starting center Mason Cole very early in the offseason, and all signs point toward them taking a center in the first round because they have not made a notable move to fill that void. Barton was a center back in 2020 as a true freshman at Duke before moving to left tackle for three seasons. His best fit in the NFL is likely on the interior, and he'd help this Pittsburgh O-line.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
The Dolphins certainly don't need to add another wide receiver, but is there a more tantalizing potential fit than the fastest player in the history of the combine (4.21 seconds in the 40-yard dash) joining the fastest offense in the NFL? Miami's need for speed is well established, and this pick would create an incredible receiver trio with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Worthy.
Troy Fautanu, G/OT, Washington
Following the trade down, Seattle could address its most pressing offensive need with a familiar face, as Fautanu was a star for Washington under new Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. While Fautanu played left tackle in college, he has the skill set to move inside to guard. His footwork is the best of any lineman in the class.
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Latu would join Jonathan Greenard for Minnesota's new-look pass rush on defense. He had the best tape of any defensive player in the class and can become a double-digit sack artist in the NFL. After all, he had 23.5 of them over the past two seasons at UCLA. Medical concerns over a prior neck injury (while at Washington in 2020) would be the only reason he slides to this slot.
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The Cowboys must address the left side of the offensive line in Round 1, and Guyton might be the most mobile of the offensive tackles in the mix for the first round. Yes, he is a little green with just one full season as a starter (he played right tackle for the Sooners in 2023), but I love his upside. Dallas would likely keep Tyler Smith at left guard in this scenario, which is his best overall position.
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Green Bay does not need a left tackle to line up for a game tomorrow, even without David Bakhtiari on the roster, but finding a potential upgrade over Rasheed Walker is on the team's radar. Mims is a wild card in the first round given he had just 803 career snaps and eight career starts in college, but with light feet and a massive 6-foot-8, 340-pound frame, the sky is the limit. He just might need some time to further develop before becoming a fixture in the starting lineup.
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
With two notable needs to fill -- along the interior offensive line and on the edge -- Tampa Bay could check one off quickly with Robinson. I'm high on him, ranking him 19th on my final board. He had only four sacks during his final college season, but his first-step quickness is outstanding. And there are several people around the league who think Robinson could hear his name called much sooner that this based on that potential and upside.
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Given all of the Cardinals' draft capital (11 total picks), there is an expectation that they will be busy working the phones on trade-up opportunities. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they attempt to trade up for DeJean. But in this mock, they land DeJean at No. 27 without going anywhere. Arizona could immediately tap into his positional versatility that allows him to play corner or safety. I'd keep him at corner, but the flexibility boosts his value -- which is already pretty high after seven interceptions over the past two seasons.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Buffalo taking a first-round receiver might be too predictable at this point, as essentially every mock draft published since Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston has had the Bills landing someone at the position. I'm keeping the trend rolling with Thomas, the best deep-field accelerator in the class. He'd fit perfectly with Josh Allen's massive arm in this offense. Thomas had 17 receiving touchdowns last season, the most in the FBS.
Projected trade: Washington isn't done on Day 1
Commanders get: No. 29
Lions get: No. 36 and No. 100
The Commanders got their quarterback at No. 2 in Jayden Daniels, but this team allowed 65 sacks last season, tied for the NFL's second most. The Commanders have to protect their new franchise QB, and I could see them jumping at the chance to move back into Round 1 for help there. And while the host-city Lions moving out of the first round might draw some jeers from the crowd, extensions for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell on Wednesday already made this week a successful one.
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Morgan is a capable play-in-space tackle who would fill a priority need in D.C. He allowed just two sacks on 454 pass-blocking snaps in 2023, and he has 37 starts worth of experience.
Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri
Robinson does a little bit of everything and is super versatile. He was a defensive tackle early in his Missouri career before moving into an edge role, finishing with 8.5 sacks in his final season. The Ravens lost Jadeveon Clowney in free agency this offseason, but Robinson would keep this Baltimore pass rush strong.
0:41
Darius Robinson's NFL draft profile
Check out some of the top highlights from Missouri DE Darius Robinson.
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Teams have speculated to me that San Francisco could move up to land an offensive tackle, but cornerback is interesting here. It's perhaps more of a longer-term issue than a shorter-term one, as starters Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir are both scheduled to be free agents after 2024. McKinstry is a silky-smooth coverage player who had 20 pass breakups over the past two seasons.
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
The defending champs need to address the receiver room, and this is the draft to do it. Mitchell would add size, speed and reliable hands; he ran a 4.34-second 40 at the combine and dropped just one pass all of last season.
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