Bills-Dolphins, Texans-Colts, Week 18 playoff scenarios: Our NFL writers discuss - The Athletic

It’s Week 18 in the NFL, where five playoff spots are available and four division titles await to be earned. The Atheltic’s Mike Sando, Kalyn Kahler and Jeff Howe try to make sense of it all in our latest roundtable previewing the weekend’s games.

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Buffalo Bills–Miami Dolphins will determine the winner of the AFC East in the regular-season finale. What’s one thing each team needs to not only win Sunday but also feel confident heading into the playoffs?

Sando: For the Dolphins, avoiding a second consecutive blowout defeat would be sufficient for a team that has already secured a playoff berth, provided Miami avoids additional key injuries. As for the matchup, I’m watching to see what kind of pressure the Dolphins can get on Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Injuries have sidelined the Dolphins’ top pass rushers. Last week, Lamar Jackson completed 7 of 8 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns when the Dolphins blitzed. When Buffalo beat Miami in Week 5, Allen completed 5 of 5 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown against Dolphins blitzes.

Howe: The Bills haven’t necessarily found a traditional run game, but they’re certainly trying to keep James Cook as involved as possible. That seems to be one of the biggest differences since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. Allen has three touchdown passes and six touchdown runs during their four-game winning streak, so he’s also been getting it done with his legs when the time calls for it. The Dolphins need to stay on schedule and avoid the disastrous stretches that have crushed them a few times. They gave up 17 consecutive points to the Bills in the second quarter of their 48-20 loss in Week 4 and 21 straight points in less than five minutes around the half last week in the 56-19 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. In the 21-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9, Kansas City scored 14 points in the final 2:31 before the half. The Dolphins have fallen out of games when they’ve pressed in those key moments.

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Kahler: Miami’s injuries are mounting. The loss of Bradley Chubb with an ACL tear last week really, really hurts this defense, which was already without Jaelan Phillips. Chubb led the team in pressures (70) and sacks this season (13). Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are questionable, and Tyreek Hill has been banged up. This is out of Miami’s control, but the most important thing is to escape without losing another key starter. For Buffalo, Allen needs to continue rushing. Since Week 11, he has averaged 8.2 rushing attempts per game compared with 4.8 attempts per game before that.

Week 18 will also determine whether the Houston Texans or Indianapolis Colts make the playoffs. What or who is the biggest key to a win for each team in their matchup?

Sando: Indy’s defense is the key to this matchup. The Colts improbably won the Week 2 game between the teams while allowing 10 explosive plays (passes gaining more than 15 yards, rushes gaining more than 12). That’s the second-highest total allowed by Indy all season and a number that is difficult to overcome. Houston’s offense hasn’t been nearly as explosive down the stretch, even since C.J. Stroud returned from injury. Can the Texans get back to their explosive ways in the rematch? If so, they should win.

Howe: If Stroud is the best player on the field — as he should be — the Texans will win. The Colts blew away expectations this season, but their defense probably can’t hold up against Stroud. If the Colts find a way to win, they’ll probably need Gardner Minshew to do something incredible because the Texans’ third-ranked run defense has been tough to crack.

Kahler: The last time the Colts and Texans played, the Colts won — largely by dominating a makeshift Houston offensive line and sacking Stroud six times. In that Week 2 game, the Texans were without several OL starters, including left tackle Laremy Tunsil. It looks like only one of the offensive linemen who started that game will be starting Saturday. The improved and healthier offensive line keeping Stroud’s jersey clean will make this a much different game than the first. And for the Colts, Minshew will need to be careful, as the Texans have a dangerous pass defense.

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The Ravens and San Francisco 49ers will rest starters this week. Is that typically a smart move, especially for a team with a bye during the wild-card round?

Sando: It’s a great opportunity to protect key players and make sure veterans are rested for the playoffs. There’s no proof that resting starters leads to poor performance in the playoffs, but there is proof that getting injured prevents a player from playing well, if at all.

Howe: I don’t like the idea of universally resting starters before a playoff bye week because it sets up the likelihood for complacency. Now, in a situation where players legitimately need the time to get healthy, like Christian McCaffrey, it’s perfectly reasonable. It’s not just about Sunday, either. If you tell players they aren’t playing at the start of the week, it’s human nature to relax more than they would if they were preparing for a game. The New England Patriots had a first-round bye each season from 2010 to 2018, and even though it wasn’t always wrapped up by the finale, Tom Brady and his healthy teammates were consistently out there to close down the regular season, even if they didn’t play wire to wire. Sure, you run the risk of a catastrophic injury and the embarrassing fallout that would create, but how often do teams let off the gas and then forget where to find the pedal in the divisional round?

Kahler: It’s best to rest. You don’t want to lose a key player in a meaningless game like the Los Angeles Chargers did last year when they played Mike Williams in Week 18. I understand the argument of continuing momentum, but that could never outweigh the alternative — injuries — which is likely.

Sando: They haven’t been good enough on defense all season. It’s mostly a matter of the poor defense catching up to them. They won games earlier in the season that easily could have fallen into the loss column. Things have evened out, and here the Eagles are, probably where they belonged the entire time.

Howe: I credited the Eagles for their resilience and ability to win in different ways when they were fighting through some things during their 10-1 start, but they haven’t made enough progress in the past couple of months. There have been growing pains with the new coordinators, and the defense hasn’t been nearly as good as it was a year ago, particularly with the sack totals. It’s wild how quickly things can change. The Eagles beat the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills in November, but they’ll enter the playoffs without beating anyone other than the New York Giants since the start of December.

Kahler: The defense is the obvious answer, but it feels like the only thing working for the Eagles on offense is the tush push. Jalen Hurts has not looked himself this season. Philadelphia has been mostly mum about whatever injury he may or may not be dealing with, but he’s been wearing a knee brace on and off. The Eagles are missing his explosive run plays. He’s just not hitting them the way he did last season.

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Which team has the tougher opponent standing in its way for a playoff berth Sunday: The Green Bay Packers against a rival Chicago Bears team playing relatively well? Or the Seattle Seahawks against a feisty Arizona Cardinals team coming off a win over the Eagles?

Sando: The Bears are the tougher, more talented opponent. If the Packers lose, it will be because the Bears played them tough. If the Seahawks lose, it will say more about Seattle, which has struggled on defense even more than Green Bay.

Howe: The Bears have won five of seven and have been playing well for a while. They’ve lost only one game by more than one possession since their 0-4 start, so they’re largely competitive even when they haven’t been winning. The Packers have also won five of seven, but they followed up back-to-back wins against the Detroit Lions and Chiefs with losses to the Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is shaping up to be a competitive game, and the Packers won’t win if they don’t play at a high level.

Kahler: Packers. The 2023 Bears just might be the 2022 Lions, the lovable underdog that is about to get good, just with a less aggressive head coach. Chicago has a lot of momentum right now, and Fields is playing for his job — or, more likely, his next job. The Bears have never beaten Green Bay in the Matt Eberflus era. Green Bay’s defense has struggled, and I can see Chicago’s run game getting hot. Fields also had maybe his best game as a passer last Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.

(Photos of Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs and C.J. Stroud: Michael Owens, Sarah Stier and Cooper Neill / Getty Images)

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