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» » 2024 NFL Draft roundtable: Reacting to Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft - The Athletic

2024 NFL Draft roundtable: Reacting to Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft - The Athletic

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler released his second 2024 NFL Draft mock: a two-round, offense-heavy look at how the top 64 picks could play out.

What stood out about that mock? Which QBs and receivers could shake up teams’ plans come April? Draft experts Nick Baumgardner and Diante Lee break down the most interesting talking points of Mock 2.0:

There’s no question Jayden Daniels took over the QB3 conversation during his Heisman Trophy run. However, we’ve seen quite a range on where people believe Daniels could go. Dane slotted him No. 8 to the Atlanta Falcons. Where do you think he should land?

Diante Lee: When I recently placed the QBs into tiers, I waffled quite a bit on where to put Daniels. I see him as a late first-rounder, but I doubt I’d be surprised with any result in April.

If he goes top 10, it probably would be to a team like Atlanta that has the requisite foundation of skill-position talent and (presumably) has hired a head coach with an offensive vision built around a mobile QB. The Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers are teams to watch in the middle of the first round, as both are in need of dynamic playmaking from their QBs — and at least Las Vegas is bringing in a new head coach and GM, so adding a rookie quarterback would put the entire braintrust on the same timeline.

If not any of those spots, Tampa Bay looms at 26. It would make sense to bring Daniels in to sit behind Baker Mayfield for a year, should the Bucs decide to bring Mayfield back.

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Nick Baumgardner: In a vacuum, I agree with Diante in terms of where I’d slot Daniels: late first round. However, we don’t live in one of those, and the board/market always has a huge say in where QBs ultimately land, which, for me, means I’m probably willing to go as high as Dane did but not higher.

Though the teams currently picking in front of the Falcons are QB-needy, I don’t think that need will outweigh the talent they’ll have on the board. Meaning guys like Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers, maybe Rome Odunze and at least one of those tackles, all of whom are going to be a better pick in those spots than Daniels.

Also, Daniels is a quarterback who is going to need help if you’re looking for immediate results. Buyer beware there.

We’ve been looking at the trio of Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix for a while now.  How are you sorting that potential second tier of 2024 QBs?

Baumgardner: In terms of immediate readiness, I’d rank them Penix-Nix-McCarthy. In terms of a long-term draft pick, I’d rank McCarthy No. 1, with Penix and Nix pretty close behind. All three players are good enough to get first-round consideration, and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see two (or even three) of them at the end of Round 1.

I also don’t think any of these guys is going to be on the board beyond pick 50, for a similar reason that Daniels could get pushed into the top 10: Too many teams out there are in need of a quarterback, and several of them have enough on their rosters to support players like this.

If you’re drafting McCarthy, you need a long-term plan — and maybe a veteran starter already in place. If he comes into training camp and beats that veteran QB, cool, but have a fallback plan. Also: Don’t be so rigid as to not entertain that plan. It’s worked for the Green Bay Packers (again).

Limitations exist with all three right now, but each of them has a chance to be a pretty high-floor NFL player, which means they’re not making it beyond Day 2.

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Michigan's McCarthy, Corum entering NFL Draft

Lee: Penix is first, with McCarthy in second and Nix bringing up the rear — but I wouldn’t shout down anyone who wants to flip those second and third spots. All three possess similar attributes, but Penix has demonstrated himself to be the best downfield passer, and that’s one of the most important factors in determining which QBs are likely to succeed. So much of Nix and McCarthy’s passing games are played within 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage that it’s hard to feel confident they’ll gain more downfield aggressiveness as the game gets more difficult.

Where it gets interesting, though, is talking about pocket management — and that carries equal influence to arm talent in projecting success. Penix is not an efficient mover in the pocket, and his accuracy dips significantly outside of the pocket. Nix has all the athletic gifts to navigate pressure inside and out of the pocket, but he’s always had trouble finding open guys when under duress. I’d argue McCarthy is the best of these three at maintaining calm feet in the pocket and being accurate on the move, and most of his impressive passes come when he’s rolling out to his right.

Penix is a late second- to early third-rounder; Nix and McCarthy are late third- to early fourth-round picks, in my opinion. Each of these guys need some time to adjust to the pro game and an offensive ecosystem in which they won’t have to use their passing prowess to fix any potential problems.

Dane had three receivers in his top six, five in the first round and 11 within the first two rounds. How would you stack Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze — and how many WRs actually could land in Round 1?

Lee: Harrison is obviously first, then I have Nabers second and Odunze third. The explosive speed after the catch and versatility from the slot were the deciding factors between Nabers and Odunze. Each of these guys represent different archetypes of receiving talent: Harrison as the prototypical X, Nabers a move-around guy and Odunze the classic Z receiver.

As for how many receivers hear their names called on Day 1, I think Dane is right on the money: He has five (Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Keon Coleman), and Adonai Mitchell is right on the fringe as a ball-winner type. It feels like we’ve gone a while between drafts with several big-bodied WRs that play above the rim, and the top of this class has plenty of them.

Baumgardner: Nabers is a race car. He’s awesome, and I agree he’s No. 2. I was a bit surprised to see Dane note some teams have Nabers much closer to Harrison than we might think — but I can’t hate it. He’s special and top-five worthy. And Odunze is top-10 worthy. I also think Thomas and (especially) Coleman are going to get sniffs inside the top 15 before it’s all done. Thomas was a revelation for a lot of people this season, playing alongside Nabers with Daniels at LSU.

However, Coleman is a 6-foot-4, 215-pound, 20-year-old who jumps like a power forward and has almost untapped potential as an every-down receiver. He got most of one season to showcase what he could do with Jordan Travis at Florida State. Before that, he was languishing in a lifeless Michigan State program.

I’m with Diante on Mitchell, too, and I’d mention Oregon’s Troy Franklin and Washington’s Ja’Lynn Polk as having outside shots at Round 1. So, that’s eight receivers with Round 1 potential.

Which prospect do you have higher on your list than where he landed in Dane’s mock? Who came off the board too early?

Lee: This is the definition of nitpicking, but I see Tyler Nubin as a late-first-round player (he’s No. 40 in the mock). The coverage range, aggression and downhill force he plays with meet every criteria of what the modern NFL safety needs to be, and at least half the teams in the bottom 10 of Round 1 would like to have him — positional value be damned.

On the other hand, I just don’t see McCarthy (No. 19 to the Rams) through the same lens. There’s something to be said for executing an offense as it’s called, but I don’t believe we’ve seen him execute consistently enough against top competition. He needs more time to sit and learn, and less pressure to deliver based on where he’s drafted.

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2024 NFL Mock Draft: Two rounds, 64 picks and 4 QBs in the top 20

Baumgardner: I mentioned Coleman (No. 29 to Buffalo) and, I’d also be willing to argue for Chris Braswell (No. 46 to Indianapolis) at the bottom of the first round if I was edge-needy. Coleman’s a guy who really never had a chance to fully shine in college, while Braswell grinded behind some big-time stars pretty quietly but is more than capable on his own.

I have a hard time totally agreeing with one guy Dane’s long been high on: UCLA edge Laiatu Latu (No. 11 to Minnesota). In many ways, I prefer Jared Verse’s game to Latu’s, and frankly, Verse (No. 14 to New Orleans) is far from a perfect prospect. I’m not in love with the edge class this year, and I’m curious to see if Latu actually winds up top 15 or if — as Dane noted — his injury issues and lack of ideal traits catch up with him a bit. He’s fun to watch, though.

(Photo of Jayden Daniels: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)

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