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Through the first seven weeks of the season, I have injected Marvel quotes, Game of Thrones references, and various memes in these intros. Why? Because I love science fiction, movies, and other things that are nerdalicious. Movies are a staple in our family. Something we share as a family, whether it’s cuddling up on the couch or sharing witty quotes randomly during the day.
For Today’s intro installment of the Primer, I’ll give you my top Halloween/spooky movie list.
Because…why not.
Some of these are more of the horror variety while others have that family movie night feel.
- Hocus Pocus (1 & 2): These are the elite of Halloween movies.
- Ghostbusters: I ain’t afraid of no ghost. Still a classic.
- Shaun of the Dead: What is Halloween without a zombie movie with Queen music?
- Coraline: This movie is so underrated.
- Casper: I still remember watching this as a kid. My Christiana Ricci crush was real.
- A Quiet Place: A scary movie with John Krasinski. Yep. It had to make the top 10.
- The Evil Dead: Bruce Campbell is a legend. I will hear no rebuttals.
- Poltergeist: This movie kept me up at night as a kid.
- Beetlejuice: Another classic. Michael Keaton is a genius.
- Nightmare Before Christmas: Yes, I know. Hate me because it’s so low. Oh well.
Other classics that are beloved and worth viewing but sadly don’t crack my top list:
- Corpse Bride
- A Nightmare on Elm Street
- Scream
- IT (both versions)
- The Sixth Sense
- Paranormal Activity
- The Thing
- The Shining
Now, onto Week 8 and the Primer.
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pace and playcalling notes
- Each team’s offensive plan is well known. The Ravens love to slow the pace down (30th) in close games, while the Buccaneers are sprinters (seventh in neutral pace).
- The Ravens remain a run-based offense (sixth in neutral rushing rate), while Tampa Bay remains pass-heavy (fifth in neutral passing rate).
- The Buccaneers are also third in red zone passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: Since Week 5, the Buccaneers’ pass defense has shown some cracks. Over the last three games, they are 15th in pass defense DVOA. Marcus Mariota, Mitchell Trubisky, and P.J. Walker completed 66.1% of their passes with 7.9 yards per attempt and a 4:0 passing touchdown to interception ratio. This could be a quiet bounce-back spot for the struggling Jackson. Since Week 4, he’s been the QB16 in fantasy points per game, with his passing metrics falling into the toilet. Over that span, he’s 31st in PFF passing grade, 33rd in yards per attempt, 17th in big-time throw rate, and 26th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Jackson remains a QB1.
Tom Brady: Brady’s real-life quarterback play and his fantasy production haven’t matched up. The Buccaneers offense has been a tick-off all season with injuries and missed opportunities. Brady is seventh in PFF passing grade, tenth in big-time throw rate, 19th in adjusted completion rate, and holds the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). These numbers don’t line up with a quarterback that’s QB22 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 5, the Ravens have been a much improved secondary, ranking 13th in pass defense DVOA with the 14th-lowest yards per attempt allowed. They are, however, 17th in DVOA against deep passing. Brady is third in PFF deep passing grade and ninth in deep ball accuracy rating, but he’s also 26th in deep adjusted completion rate. These metrics scream that deep ball regression is coming. Is it in Week 8? Possible. Brady remains a QB1 despite his lackluster fantasy numbers and the tough-on-paper matchup.
Running Backs
Week 7
Gus Edwards: Ok. Edwards looked good in his first game action of the 2022 season. He played 36% of the snaps with 16 carries for 66 yards and two scores. Among 75 running backs with at least 15 carries, he ranks 59th in yards after contact per attempt and 45th in PFF’s elusive rating, so let’s not get carried away. Edwards also saw competition for red zone touches with Kenyan Drake and didn’t run a route in Week 7. Arizona is a beatable defense on the ground. They rank 15th in rush success rate, 26th in explosive run rate, and 26th in second-level yards (19th – open field yards) allowed. Edwards is a game script dependent RB3.
Justice Hill: Hill played 31% of the snaps with five rushes for 26 yards (zero targets). He ran the most routes among the running backs with a 35% rate. Without a red zone role and on a team that doesn’t utilize their backs in the passing game, Hill is best left to the waiver wire.
Kenyan Drake: The Drake waiver frenzy and hope lasted about half of a week. Drake played 27% of the snaps turning his 11 carries into five rushing yards. Drake challenged Edwards in the red zone in Week 7 with one less touch, but that could easily flip more in Edwards’ favor in Week 8. Drake is a low-end stash only. He’s not worth considering for your lineup, even in the deepest of leagues.
Week 7
Weeks 4-7
Leonard Fournette: Fournette is still rocking along as the RB8 in fantasy points per game. Since White’s inclusion in the backfield rotation (Week 4), Fournette has averaged 17.8 touches and 80.1 total yards. He’s also seen less than 15 touches in two of his last four games. His snaps have hovered in the 60-62% range in three of his last four games. Fournette could be headed for a bounceback week against Baltimore, but there are concerns. The Ravens have allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards, but they have also faced the sixth-fewest rushing attempts. Baltimore can be run on, as they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per carry. The Ravens are also 24th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. The biggest worry for Fournette is that his offensive line has been terrible, ranking 28th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. Another worrisome factor for Fournette is that he hasn’t been particularly elusive. Among 58 running backs with 25 or more carries, he ranks 55th in yards after contact per attempt, 47th in breakaway run rate, and 48th in PFF’s elusive rating. His heavy target share in the Bucs’ offense could help save him, though, as Baltimore has given up the third-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs. Fournette remains an RB1.
Rachaad White: White played a season-high 43% of snaps in Week 7. While he did see a season-high six carries last week was the first game since Week 3 in which he didn’t have at least four targets through the air. Since Week 4, White has averaged 35% of the snaps with 7.5 touches and 38.3 total yards. His value as a touchdown or bust low-end PPR flex is found through the passing game because he’s still among the worst rushers in the league. Among the same sample of backs as Fournette, the only player with a lower yards after contact per attempt is Kenyan Drake. With his 26 rushing attempts, White has only managed one run of ten or more yards, and he still hasn’t recorded a breakaway run.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans: Evans is the WR11 in fantasy points per game. He has garnered a 19% target share with 33.2% of the team’s air yards. Evans is 19th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He leads Tampa Bay with a 41.7% end zone target share. Evans is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 who will run about 72% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (71% catch rate, 57.5 passer rating) and Marcus Peters (64.5% catch rate, 92.5 passer rating). The matchup this week against the Ravens’ outside corners is no joke, but it’s impossible to bench Evans with his downfield role (leads the team in deep targets) and touchdown equity in the Bucs offense.
Chris Godwin: In the three games Godwin has played at least 80% of the snaps this season, he has seen a 26.1% target share with 29.1% of the team’s air yards. In those three games, he has logged at least ten targets and seven receptions in each outing. Godwin is 26th in PFF receiving grade and 35th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Godwin will run about 73% of his routes in the slot against Damarion Williams (74.1% catch rate, 135.3 passer rating). Williams is the weak link in the Baltimore secondary. Expect Brady to zero in on it and pepper Godwin with another ten-plus target game. Godwin is a top-ten wide receiver.
Russell Gage: Gage has been ruled out.
Julio Jones: Jones has been listed as a game-time decision. I doubt he plays, but if he does, he still isn’t worth starting. Jones could easily be a part-time player splitting routes with Scotty Miller.
Rashod Bateman (undisclosed) misses practice Tuesday https://t.co/sDfgwODdSC via @jesseg628 #RavensFlock
— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) October 25, 2022
Rashod Bateman: Last week, Bateman returned to the lineup, and while his 56% snap rate doesn’t look impressive, he saw a 75% route run rate, so Baltimore was utilizing him on passing plays and not in meaningless run-blocking situations. In the four games in which Bateman has played at least 50% of the snaps, he’s seen a 20.8% target share with a 67.1 PFF receiving grade and 3.01 yards per route run. Among wide receivers with 15 or more targets, that would place him 51st in PFF receiving grades and second in yards per route run. Bateman is a WR3 that’ll run about 85% of his routes against Jamel Dean (48.5% catch rate, 49.9 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (80% catch rate, 147.9 passer rating). Monitor Bateman’s practice reports. If he misses this game, Duvernay’s outlook will change.
Devin Duvernay: In the four games, Bateman has played close to a full complement of passing down snaps, Duvernay has faded into the background with a 10.9% target share averaging 40.8 receiving yards. In a low-volume passing offense, Duvernay is nothing more than a WR4/5 who will run about 61% of his routes on the perimeter against Dean and McCollum.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton: If Cameron Brate remains sidelined, Otton will be the full-time tight end in Week 7. In the two games, he’s been in the starter’s chair, he’s played at least 81% of the snaps with a 12.2% target share and 83.5% route run rate. He averaged six targets, five receptions, and 53.5 receiving yards as the TE10 and TE12 in fantasy scoring. Baltimore is 24th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the highest catch rate and fourth-most receiving touchdowns to the position. If Otton draws the start, he’s a TE1.
Mark Andrews (ankle) does not practice Tuesday https://t.co/qecmcHRb6w via @jesseg628 #RavensFlock
— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) October 25, 2022
Mark Andrews: Andrews leads all tight ends in target share (31.6%), endzone targets per game, and weighted opportunity. He’s second in receiving yards per game and third in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Tampa Bay might be 14th in DVOA against tight ends, but they have surrendered the ninth-highest catch rate and 11th-most receiving yards per game. Andrews is a top-two tight-end option weekly. Monitor Andrews’ practice reports this week as he didn’t practice on Tuesday (ankle). If Andrews misses this game, Isaiah Likely would enter the streaming / low-end TE1 conversation in Week 8.
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pace and playcalling notes
- This is certainly not the sexiest game on the slate, but the play volume here will shock people. Since Week 4, the Jaguars have led the NFL in neutral pace while the Broncos are 11th.
- The passing volume, despite its ugliness, will be hefty. Over the same span, Denver is 11th in neutral passing rate while Jacksonville is 14th.
- The Broncos are fifth in red zone passing rate, while the Jaguars have leaned on their backs inside the 20 (eighth in red zone rushing rate).
Quarterbacks
DEN QB: The Broncos have expressed optimism that Russell Wilson could be back soon. We’ll see through practice reports this week if that comes to fruition or if we get another round of Brett Rypien.
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence is a low-end QB2 in an absolutely brutal matchup. The Broncos are third in pass defense DVOA with the lowest yards per attempt and passing touchdown rates allowed in the NFL. They have yielded the lowest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Lawrence is the QB11 in fantasy points per game this season, but that’s partially due to the dreadful state of the quarterback position and his three rushing touchdowns (second-most among quarterbacks). Lawrence will be under siege during this game. Denver is third in blitz rate and seventh in pressure rate. Among 36 quarterbacks with at least 25 pressured dropbacks, Lawrence is 30th in pressured PFF passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, and 26th in QBR while pressured.
Running Backs
Week 7
Melvin Gordon: Gordon led the backfield last week with 51% of the snaps, 13 touches, and 50 total yards. With Mike Boone on the injured reserve, Gordon could absorb a few more routes weekly. Gordon remains an inefficient player who ranks 48th in evaded tackles, 39th in yards created per touch, and 52nd in breakaway runs (only one). The matchup this week against the Jaguars vaults Gordon despite his shortcomings, into RB2/3 territory. Since Week 4 Jacksonville’s run defense has been abysmal ranking 11th-highest in rush success rate, 26th in rushing yards per game, 30th in rush EPA, and 24th in explosive run rate allowed. Gordon should flirt with 15-20 touches this week.
Latavius Murray: After Nathaniel Hackett’s brief flirtation with Murray as a lead back, he only logged 39% of the snaps last week with ten touches (23 total yards). Hackett still felt it worthwhile to use Murray in the red zone over Gordon, which is hilarious. Hackett being a hack will continue to be a thing, but Murray is a low-end stash or a desperation flex this week. As elderly as Gordon has looked, Murray has been worse. Among 58 running backs with 25 or more carries, Murray is 54th in yards after contact per attempt (Gordon, 44th) and 51st in PFF’s elusive rationing (Gordon, 40th).
Travis Etienne: It’s wheels up for Etienne. The runway was cleared last week, but now with James Robinson shipped off, there’s no one looming behind Etienne. Last week he saw RB1 usage. Etienne played 80% of the snaps with 15 touches that he turned into 119 total yards. Etienne also saw an 11.6% target share while absorbing a 45.5% route rate which could continue to climb. Since Week 4, Etienne is 12th in yards after contact per attempt, second in breakaway rate, and 12th in PFF’s elusive rating. Denver can be run on. Since Week 4, their run defense ranks 21st in rushing yards per game, 17th in EPA per rush, and 14th in explosive run rate allowed. Etienne is a top 12-15 running back this week.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton: The last two weeks for Sutton have been rough as the WR68 and WR67 in fantasy, but this could be a good “get right” spot. Even with the back-to-back duds, Sutton is the WR31 in fantasy. He still has a 24.8% target share (21st) and 32% of the team’s air yards (21st). Sutton is 40th in yards per route run, fourth in deep targets, and seventh in red zone targets, so the high-value usage has been there despite bad quarterback play knocking him down. Since Week 5, the Jaguars are 20th in explosive pass rate allowed, so there’s an avenue for Sutton to have a nice game. If Shaquill Griffin isn’t back this week, Sutton will run about 85% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (61.1% catch rate, 85.3 passer rating) and Tre Herndon (50% catch rate, 125.0 passer rating). Sutton is a WR2/3.
Jerry Jeudy: With Sutton battling with the Jets’ stout outside corners last week, Jeudy saw a 24.4% target share. Expect the targets to move back in Sutton’s direction this week, but that’s not to say Jeudy should be left for dead. Jeudy has a 20.1% target share (37th) this season with 12 deep targets (sixth), and six red zone looks (23rd). Jeudy is 32nd in yards per route run, but his best asset has been his YAC ability (minimum 15 targets). He’s seventh in YAC per reception (minimum 15 targets) and now faces a pass defense that’s allowed the fifth-most YAC while ranking fifth in missed tackles. Jeudy will run about 69% of his routes from the slot against Darious Williams (61.5% catch rate, 91.6 passer rating. Williams has permitted the 16th-highest yards per snap (minimum 50 coverage snaps). Jeudy is a WR3.
Christian Kirk: Kirk is a low-end WR2/WR3. He’s the WR18 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 22.7% target share (27th) with increased red zone involvement (nine red zone targets, seventh-best). Lawrence’s game manager role and a touch matchup trickle down to Kirk. Kirk is still 29th in yard per route run (minimum 15 targets), but his catchable target rate has dipped to 74.1% (59th). He’ll run about 73% of his routes against K’Wauan Williams inside (75% catch rate, 88.8 passer rating).
Zay Jones: Jones has seen a boatload of targets, but he’s done relatively little with them. Jones is 21st in targets per game (7.8) among wide receivers, but he’s 66th in yards per route run and 74th in fantasy points per target. Despite eight or more targets in four of six games played, Jones has only surpassed 60 receiving yards or finished as a top 36 wide receiver twice. He’ll run about 63% of his routes against Patrick Surtain (55.3% catch rate, 65.6 passer rating) and Damarri Mathis (76.7% catch rate, 95.4 passer rating). Jones is a WR5.
Marvin Jones: Marvin Jones only has two games inside the top 40 wide receivers this season. He’s only seen three red zone targets (55th) all season. With his 17.6% target share and 1.36 yards per route run, he’s a WR6. He’ll run about 88% of his routes against Surtain and Mathis.
Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich: Dulcich has been worked into the offense quickly. Since Week 6, he’s drawn a 17.1% target share with a 74.4% route run rate. Over the last two games, he’s been the TE11 and TE7 in weekly scoring. He’s garnered three deep targets, and a red zone look in this short stretch. Dulcich is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 this week. The Jaguars are 21st in DVOA against tight ends with the fifth-highest yards per reception allowed.
Evan Engram: Engram is a TE2 this week. He remains the lackluster volume factory. Engram is 11th in target share, seventh in routes run, and eighth in raw target volume at the position. He’s only the TE14 in fantasy points per game, as he’s 24th in PFF receiving grade, 16th in yards per route run, and 25th in fantasy points per target. The Broncos have been tough on tight ends, ranking fifth in DVOA, giving up the fifth-lowest yards per reception and 13th-fewest fantasy points per game.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pace and playcalling notes
- These two sloth-like offenses will drain the clock. Both are outside the top 24 in neutral script pace (since Week 5, CAR 26th, ATL overall 25th).
- Each team is desperately in love with their run games when the score is close as they are both top-12 in neutral rushing rate (since Week 5, CAR 11th, overall ATL first).
Quarterbacks
P.J. Walker: Time to give credit where credit is due. Walker has played well in his small run as the Panthers’ starter. Among 43 quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks, he’s 43rd in aDOT but also fourth in PFF passing grade, first in big-time throw rate, and 14th in adjusted completion rate. He has finished as the QB30 and QB14 in weekly fantasy scoring. Walker is a mid-QB2 this week. The Falcons’ pass defense has thrown up the white flag in submission this year. After brief flashes as an above-average pass defense in the early going, they have cratered into mediocrity. Atlanta is 32nd in pass defense DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game, and 27th in explosive pass rate while giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Marcus Mariota: The Falcons are desperately trying to cover up Mariota as much as possible. Since Week 3, he’s thrown the ball more than 24 times once. Mariota has three top-12 fantasy finishes this year, all fueled by his rushing. In each of those games, he rushed for at least 50 yards, with rushing touchdowns in two of them. Among the same 43 quarterback sample as Walker, Mariota is 23rd in PFF passing grade, 26th in big-time throw rate, and 38th in adjusted completion rate. Mariota is the QB19 in fantasy points per game. That’s how he should be valued weekly as a mid to low-end QB2 who can hop into the top 12 if his rushing equity hits the high water mark. Carolina has allowed the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and tenth-lowest passing touchdown rate. They might rank 22nd in pressure rate but also 11th in blitz rate. If the blitz gets home, Mariota is in trouble. Mariota is 30th in adjusted completion rate and 33rd in yards per attempt against the blitz (minimum 20 blitzed dropbacks).
Running Backs
Week 7
Weeks 1-7
| Player | Yards after contact/attempt (Rank) | Breakaway Rate (Rank) | PFF elusive rating (Rank) |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4.27 (3rd) | 17.5% (49th) | 142.2 (3rd) |
| D’Onta Foreman | 3.63 (17th) | 56.1% (5th) | 75.1 (25th) |
**Minimum 15 carries**
Chuba Hubbard: Before Hubbard left the game due to injury, he played 63% of the snaps with eight rushing attempts (Foreman, four) and 11 routes run (Foreman, eight). Hubbard was operating as the 1A in this committee. Even with the missed time in the game, he still led Foreman in rushing attempt percentage, target share, and route run rate. The above efficiency metrics are small samples, no doubt, but still, eye-opening for both of these backs. Hubbard finished the game with 11 touches for 73 total yards and a score as the RB21 for the week. Hubbard is an RB3 with upside in a plus matchup. The Falcons have the second-highest rush success rate allowed while also sitting at 29th and 22nd in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. They have given up the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game as they have faced the sixth-fewest rushing attempts per game. Teams have been happy to pass all game, but the Panthers look like they are deploying the Bears model. Run, Run, Run, and then maybe pass the ball. The Panthers’ run blocking has been among the best in the league, ranking 11th in adjusted line yards and seventh in open field yards.
D’Onta Foreman: Looking at the above small sample numbers, Foreman has continued to run like a person on a mission. Last year Foreman was 15th in yards after contact per attempt, 12th in breakaway rate, and 19th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). Foreman played 54% of the snaps last week with 17 touches and 145 total yards as the RB17. Foreman will be the 1B in the backfield, at least if last week’s usage is continued in Week 8. That doesn’t mean he can’t be useful for fantasy, with the Panthers looking to run as often as they have. Foreman is also an RB3 with a lower floor. He could easily see 12-15 touches this week.
Weeks 5-7
Tyler Allgeier: Since assuming the lead role in this backfield, Allgeier has averaged 14.7 rushing attempts and 48.7 rushing yards per game. He’s had zero passing game role despite running routes on 60% of Mariota’s dropbacks. Last week he finally got into the end zone and finished as the RB27 in fantasy scoring. He was the RB56 and RB39 in fantasy in his two previous weeks. Among 76 running backs with at least 15 carries, Allgeier is 41st in yards after contact per attempt, 46th in breakaway rate, and 60th in PFF’s elusive rating. He is a boring boom-or-bust flex option or RB3/4. The Panthers are an above-average matchup for Allgeier. They are 21st in rushing yards per game, 19th in explosive run rate, and tenth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.
Caleb Huntley: Huntley is Allgeier’s ugly little sibling in fantasy. He also has zero passing game role, without even the hint of any upside there, as he hasn’t been running any routes. Huntley is the 1B in this backfield, averaging ten carries and 38.3 rushing yards since Week 5. His red zone role is slightly overstated as he gobbled up six of those red zone carries in Week 6 while only seeing one in the other two games combined. Huntley is also a plodder, ranking 34th in breakaway runs, 32nd in yards created per touch, and 30th in evaded tackles. Huntley is an RB4 or deep league flex.
Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore: Moore showed signs of life last week. He absorbed a 45% target share (nine targets), finishing with seven grabs, 69 receiving yards, and one score as the WR9. Moore has suffered through wretched quarterback play all year. Walker has at least the distinction of a 79.1% on-target rate, which is worlds away from Baker Mayfield‘s 64.1%. Moore has a 27.8% target share (11th) this season with a 39.4% air yard share (fourth). With A.J. Terrell on the shelf with a shoulder injury and Casey Hayward on the IR, Moore will run about 73% of his routes against Cornell Armstrong (62.5% catch rate, 137.0 passer rating) and Darren Hall (76.9% catch rate, 120.4 passer rating). Moore is a WR2.
Drake London: London is a saddening case. He is a ridiculous talent held back by a run-obsessed head coach. Seems to be a theme with Atlanta, right? London hasn’t finished inside the top 36 wide receivers in weekly scoring since Week 3. Since Week 4 among wide receivers with at least ten targets, London has run the sixth-fewest routes per game (19.2) while recording an 85.6% route run rate. Thank you, Arthur Smith, for muting not one but two elite talents into the abyss. London is fifth in PFF receiving grade and 22nd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). London will run about 87% of his routes against Donte Jackson (78.4% catch rate, 95.2 passer rating), Keith Taylor (85.7% catch rate, 110.1 passer rating), and C.J. Henderson (70% catch rate, 96.9 passer rating) (if Jaycee Horn isn’t back). London is a WR4.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts: Pitts suffers from the same Smith-itis. Among tight ends with 15 or more targets, he’s 12th in PFF receiving grade and 11th in yards per route run. Pitts has run 19.2 routes per game. He’s the only tight end with a route rate above 60% (76.7%), below 22.9 routes per game. Pitts has only seen more than five targets twice this season and surpassed 30 receiving yards once. Again, this is not a Pitts problem but a result of the offensive system he is tied to. Pitts is a TE2 until (if) this offensive design changes. Carolina is 26th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the third-highest catch rate.
Chicago Bears vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pace and playcalling notes
- If Dallas continues their Week 7 plan with Dak Prescott back, they’ll continue to lean on their ground game. In his first game back, the Cowboys operated at 29.4 seconds per snap and went 50/50 run/pass. That pace mark would be 29th overall this season.
- Chicago ranks 19th in neutral pace this season with the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields: Since Week 4, Fields is the QB9 in fantasy points per game. Much of this is related to his 67.3 rushing yards per game over this span. Over his last four games, he’s been volatile, but he’s pushing the ball downfield. He ranks 29th in PFF passing grade and 32nd in adjusted completion rate (ouch) but he’s also 12th in big-time throw rate, fourth in aDOT, and eighth in yards per attempt. Since Week 4 he’s ninth in EPA per play and 13th in EPA + CPOE composite. Dallas has a strong secondary holding opposing quarterbacks to the third-lowest success rate per dropback, fourth-fewest passing yards per game, and seventh-lowest explosive pass rate. Fields is a QB2 that will again have to get it done with this rushing. That’s possible though against a defense that is 24th in explosive run rate allowed.
Dak Prescott: In his first game back, Prescott wasn’t asked to do much. He was, however, effective, ranking 14th in PFF passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, and tenth in adjusted completion rate. The Bears have outperformed preseason projections for their pass defense, but there’s an opportunity for Prescott to post a nice stat line this week if Dallas takes the training wheels off. Chicago is 12th in pass defense DVOA and second in DVOA against short passing, but there are cracks in their armor. The Bears are also 25th in DVOA against the deep ball and have allowed the ninth-highest success rate per dropback. Prescott should have time in the pocket against a defense that’s 32nd in blitz rate and 18th in pressure rate. Prescott is a QB1 with upside if Dallas lets him rip it this week.
Running Backs
Week 7
David Montgomery: After the Bears stated they would ride the hot hand moving forward, Montgomery saw his snap rate drop to 56% after consistently resting in the 70-80% previously when fully healthy. Montgomery logged four red zone opportunities, but that’s more circumstantial than substance, as he and Herbert were rotating drives. Montgomery’s second touchdown of the season in Week 7 helped him save his week as the RB24. Montgomery remains a decent doubles hitter that lacks home run power. He’s seventh in evaded tackles and eighth in juke rate but outside the top 50 backs in breakaway run rate. Another worrisome sign for Montgomery is that Herbert cut into his route rate. With a declining pass-game role, Montgomery is a middle-of-the-road RB3. Dallas is an average matchup for backs ranking 18th in second-level yards, 19th in rushing yards per game, and 24th in explosive run rate allowed.
Khalil Herbert: Herbert is coming off a season-high 41% of the snaps with Montgomery in the lineup. Herbert handled 13 touches, turning them into 87 total yards. Herbert is Chicago’s version of Tony Pollard, but the difference is that the Bears are allowing the talent to rise to the top. While Herbert might not take over this backfield with the dependable Montgomery around, he’s still getting more run as of late. Herbert is one of the best rushers in the league. He’s sixth in yards after contact per attempt, 20th in breakaway run rate, and 11th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Herbert is also eighth in fantasy points per opportunity. Herbert is an RB3 with the upside to hop into the RB2 territory in any given week.
Week 7
Tony Pollard: Pollard is coming off the first game of the season in which he out-snapped Elliott (60% vs. 49%). Thank you, Dallas. I know it won’t last, but let’s take a second to soak in this moment. This beautiful moment. Ok, back to reality. Pollard is lightning in a bottle ranking second in yards after contact per attempt, 11th in breakaway rate, 23rd in PFF’s elusive rating, and 11th in yards per route run. Since Week 2, he’s averaged 11.7 touches and 76.4 total yards. He’s the RB36 in fantasy points per game, with five top-30 scoring weeks in his last six games. Pollard is an RB2 with a beautiful matchup. Chicago is 29th in rushing yards per game, 18th in EPA per rush, and 27th in explosive run rate. The Bears have yielded the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott is the RB25 in fantasy points per game, but he should be considered nothing more than a touchdown-dependent RB3 moving forward. He’s averaged 16.5 touches and 67.9 total yards this season while relying on touchdowns (four total, eighth-most). He saved his day last week with two scores, but his role is slowly starting to dry up. Over the last three games, he has drawn only one target through the air, and finally, in Week 7, the route run rate flipped in Pollard’s direction. Elliott is 50th in yards per touch, 43rd in juke rate, and 54th in yards created per touch. I would love to say the juicy matchup with the Bears’ run defense vaults him into RB2 territory, but outside of his two luck-boxed touchdowns in Week 7, he face-planted against the Lions’ hapless run defense with 3.8 yards per carry.
Wide Receivers
Darnell Mooney: Since Week 4, Mooney has come back to life. He’s the WR29 over that span, with at least 50 receiving yards and five targets in each game. Since Week 4, he’s 27th in raw target volume, 23rd in PFF receiving grade, and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Over the last four games, Mooney is fourth in target share (31.5%) and first in air yard share (52.2%). Mooney will run about 61% of his routes against DaRon Bland (84.6% catch rate, 71.5 passer rating) with Jourdan Lewis on the IR. Mooney is a sneaky upside WR3. Bland is a fifth-round rookie who runs a 4.53 forty. Mooney should be able to torch him.
CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR22 in fantasy, drawing a 32.2% target share (third) and 32.4% target per route run rate (fourth). He’s fifth in air yard share (39.0%) while leading the team with ten deep targets (13th). Lamb is 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’ll run about 59% of his routes in the slot against Kyler Gordon (79.5% catch rate, 112.9 passer rating). Gordon’s play has improved, but since Week 3, he’s still 23rd in yards per snap allowed (minimum 25 slot coverage snaps). If Prescott takes advantage of the Bears’ deep passing issues, Lamb will be the beneficiary. He’s a WR1.
Michael Gallup: Gallup has not looked like the same receiver since returning. Among 96 wide receivers with at least 15 targets, he’s 79th in PFF receiving grade and 86th in yards per route run. He’s failed to draw more than seven targets or surpass 50 receiving yards in any game. He’s only drawn a 16.3% target share with 23.5% of the team’s air yards. He’ll run about 88% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (58.3% catch rate, 84.4 passer rating) and Kindle Vildor (55.6% catch rate, 75.1 passer rating). Gallup is a risky WR4.
Noah Brown: Since Gallup’s return in Week 4, Brown has only once finished inside the top 48 fantasy wideouts. Brown has seen a 17.3% target share over the last four games, with 20.5% of the team’s air yards. Since Week 4, he’s the WR81 in fantasy with 1.33 yards per route run. Brown will run about 58% of his routes against Johnson and Vildor. He’s a WR6.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: It’s time. I’ve blown that last remaining hope candle for Kmet out. He’s the TE37 in fantasy points per game. He’s only managed a 13.6% target share (19th) with one red zone target. He hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards in any game this season. Don’t play Kmet. The Cowboys have allowed the lowest yards per reception to tight ends while giving up the 12th-fewest receiving yards.
Dalton Schultz: In Prescott’s first game back, Schultz saw a 20% target share which is encouraging, but as a reflection of his overall health, he only ran a route on 57% of dropbacks. We need to monitor his practice reports again this week. I don’t buy the Cowboys’ reports of him being at full health. Schultz is 31st in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Schultz is a TE2 in a rough matchup. The Bears are seventh in DVOA against the position holding tight ends to the fifth-lowest receiving yards and eighth-lowest yards per reception (one touchdown).
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