We're back for another edition of Overreaction Monday, and you know the Week 1 overreactions in the NFL are always the best overreactions.
More this year than ever, Week 1 means almost nothing. There are still 16 games left in every team's season (17, actually, for the Raiders and Ravens, who play Monday night), so there's more time than ever for things that went wrong in Week 1 to go right, or things that went right in Week 1 to go wrong.
That said, you know we're still going to do this. And you know you're still going to read it. Because it's just that good, and you just can't help yourself from overreacting to Week 1. It's human nature combined with the nature of the NFL to form a delicious mixture of soon-to-be-outdated commentary and conclusions.
This week, we're keeping our focus on the quarterback position, because no position lends itself to overreaction more. And we will start in Jacksonville, where the hurricane-relocated Saints "hosted" the Packers and beat them so badly that Aaron Rodgers is going to have to schedule a whole series of fresh news conferences to tell everybody whose fault this all was.
Jameis Winston is going to get paid, big-time, next offseason
In case you didn't see what happened in Packers-Saints: The Saints' defense made defending NFL MVP Rodgers look like a guy who'd skipped the offseason program to host game shows and vacation in Hawaii while trying (and failing) to get traded out of town.
Winston, meanwhile, turned in a memorable first start as the Saints' quarterback. The former Bucs YOLO specialist was -- get this -- 14-for-20 passing for 148 yards and five touchdown passes. Yeah. Five. On 148 yards. So now you're sitting there wondering, "Jeez, Dan. Is that the lowest yardage total ever for a quarterback who threw five touchdown passes in an NFL game?" And the answer is, "Yes, reader. Yes it is."
Winston totaled 44 air yards on his first 13 completions. For the game, he averaged 7.0 air yards per throw, the third-lowest single-game average of his career, and that included his final one, which traveled more than 50 yards in the air. It was as if Winston and coach Sean Payton knew you were watching and thinking, "Dang, Payton's turned Jameis into late-career Drew Brees," and so they signed off with a long bomb the likes of which Brees hadn't thrown since his San Diego days and called it a very satisfying day. The Saints beat the Packers 38-3 and second-year quarterback Jordan Love finished the game for Green Bay in relief of Rodgers. It was, to say the least, an absolutely stunning result.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. I do not expect Winston to have five touchdown passes on 148 yards every week. I do not expect him to go the whole season without throwing an interception. I do not expect the Saints to be as good as they looked Sunday, because no one could possibly be. But I do think it's possible that Payton, as sharp an offensive mind as there is in today's game, has spent the past 18 months working with Winston on honing his game to the point where the talent can bubble to the surface while the old, crippling turnover issues fade into the background just enough to enable the Saints to win games.
And if the Saints have a big year -- if they win their division for the fifth year in a row, for example -- I expect Winston to be a very attractive free agent in a 2022 quarterback market that could include guys such as Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and the aforementioned Rodgers as trade targets. And that would mean a big contract.
The Browns aren't really AFC contenders
The most heartbreaking result of Sunday was delivered, of course, by the league's most persistently heartbreaking team. The Browns came out on absolute fire against the Chiefs in Kansas City, scoring touchdowns on each of their first three drives and building a 22-10 halftime lead against a depleted Kansas City defense. Baker Mayfield was chucking it deep to rookie speedster Anthony Schwartz and hitting them. Nick Chubb was grinding up the Chiefs on the ground. Coach Kevin Stefanski was feeling it, to the point where the Browns went for two on the first touchdown of the game and got it.
This was Cleveland's game all the way. It looked like a loaded, hungry-as-hell team still ticked off about losing to the Chiefs in the divisional round in January. The Browns were set up to win their opener for the first time since 2004. They had this thing in their pocket.
And then Cleveland turned the ball over three times in the second half and lost, 33-29.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. I'm going down with this ship. I still think the Browns have a better roster than the two AFC North teams that won Sunday, and maybe than the one that plays Monday night. I still think Stefanski is sharp and even-handed and the right coach for this team. I still think Mayfield is good enough to win them games as their quarterback if they can keep running it well and the line stays intact. (Though I admit it's a concern that left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. got hurt in this game.)
This is not the first team to get Mahomesed and it won't be the last. The Browns will not be scared the next time they run up against the Chiefs, and they have the firepower to beat them. Are they "better"? No. But they're good enough to beat them head-to-head one of these days. And as beautifully gutsy as the Bengals' and Steelers' comebacks were Sunday, I still think that, over a 17-game season, the Browns will prove to be a legit challenger for the AFC title. I think all of this stuff, though I definitely understand it would be an easier sell if, you know, they hadn't gakked away this game Sunday.
Did anybody look any better in the early window Sunday than Murray and the Cardinals? Maybe the Eagles, but we'll get to them in a second. Murray did everything but steal bases and hit home runs in a 38-13 win over Tennessee.
He was 21-for-32 passing for 289 yards and four touchdowns and ran for another score as the Cardinals dominated the Titans on both sides of the ball in Nashville. Yeah, yeah, Chandler Jones chipped in with five sacks and the defense held the Titans to 248 yards and turned them over three times, but the star of the show was Murray, and he was at his most sensational in this one.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Look, long way to go here, and the thing with Murray is going to be keeping him healthy. He was in this conversation for a minute last season but dropped off late while he was playing hurt. But a dude who was a first-round pick in both baseball and football is capable of a lot of very exciting things, and if Murray stays healthy there's no reason to think he can't keep performing like this in Kliff Kingsbury's custom-designed offense.
Part of the problem with his case is that, as good as Arizona looked, it might still be the fourth-best team in its division (all four NFC West teams won Sunday). This also could be a division that puts all four of its teams in the playoffs. It wouldn't be any kind of major upset for the Cardinals to win it, either. I'll bet that's who Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel's picking if you ask him this morning.
The Jets should have kept Sam Darnold
Raise your hand if you didn't see the Sam Darnold Revenge Game coming. Post-Adam Gase, in a new system, armed with better passing-game targets than he ever had in New York and able to hand it off to Christian McCaffrey? Darnold might not ever be a Hall of Famer, but you have to figure he's got a chance to be better with the Panthers than he was with the Jets. On Sunday, he was.
Darnold went 24-for-35 passing for 249 yards and a touchdown (to fellow former Jet Robby Anderson) in the 19-14 win over his former team, and not to be outdone by Kyler Murray, he ran one in as well. Nothing overly eye-popping, but he was sharp and certainly good enough to outduel Zach Wilson, the new apple of the Jets' eye, in Wilson's shaky first NFL start.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. The Jets don't have anything against Darnold, whom they drafted No. 3 overall in 2018. They just have new people in charge who felt it was worth starting over with a new guy since they were picking No. 2 overall. Cheaper that way, and Wilson is a really talented guy.
Wilson had a rough start -- 20-of-37 passing with two TDs and a pick -- but he had pass-rushers eating through his face mask on just about every dropback and lost his left tackle to injury during the game. He was much better in the second half, and one game isn't enough on which to judge him. Plus, again, it's not as if Darnold was Patrick Mahomes out there.
It was a fun day for Darnold to beat his former team, but better days are ahead for Wilson. And even if Darnold does turn things around in Carolina, it's a bad second-guess to say the Jets should have kept him. They didn't believe in him anymore, and that's no recipe for success.
Hurts and Wentz played at the same time in different cities -- Hurts leading the Eagles to a 32-6 pasting of the Falcons in Atlanta and Wentz coming up short against the Seahawks, 28-16, in his Indianapolis debut. Hurts went 27-for-35 passing for 264 yards and three touchdowns, and he added 62 rushing yards on seven carries. Wentz was 25-for-38 for 251 yards and two touchdowns. He added 23 rushing yards on four carries.
Similar stat lines, but the main difference was the relentless pressure Wentz faced from the Seattle defense, especially in the second half. Wentz wasn't bad, he was kind of just fine. Hurts was fun, though, and the Eagles somewhat crucially won their game instead of losing it.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. First of all, after last season and how he forced his way out of town, what makes us think the Eagles don't want to forget about Wentz? Hurts has plenty of wrinkles in his game to iron out, but guys do iron those out very often. He has the toughness teams want in their starting quarterbacks, and his ability to beat teams with his legs should help cover some of the flaws while he develops.
The Eagles have (likely) three first-round picks in next year's draft and are poised to upgrade at quarterback if they need to, but it's not a major stretch to imagine a world in which Hurts proves he can be their answer. Everything came up Eagles this week. Every other team in the NFC East lost, and the Colts lost while Wentz played the whole game. This last part matters because the second-rounder the Eagles got for him becomes a first-rounder if Wentz plays 75% of Indy's offensive snaps. And it becomes a better first-rounder every time the Colts lose.
Long way to go, as we keep saying, but it was a great start to the season for the Eagles and Hurts, who surely believes he can make them forget about Wentz before long.
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