When it comes to draft analysis, people are usually happy to hear about prospects — what they’re good at, what they struggle with, where they fit — before the draft and hostile to it after, because of course, we can’t know how good a player will be before they’ve ever set foot on an NFL field.
But we do it because that’s part of sports, and one method to make sense of who did well in this weekend’s NFL Draft and who didn’t is to use our Consensus Big Board, which compiles the opinions of over 60 evaluators. While there’s a lot of disagreement over individual prospects between each evaluator, the sum total of the knowledge of all of these evaluators can be instructive.
In 2014 and 2015, the Consensus Big Board was almost exactly as efficient as the draft itself in evaluating talent. The most recent year we have for players that have entered second contracts is 2016, which gives us a good time to see if the board was...
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