SAN ANTONIO – A little more than 17 hours into this last Saturday in March, the Loyola Ramblers will cease to be a mid-major basketball program. There are no such designations when two teams are competing for something as precious as a spot in the NCAA Championship team. Instead, the court at the center of the Alamodome will contain two great teams.
The 2018 Final Four is the first in a while to contain four 30-win teams, and it would be a mistake to write off a chunk of the Ramblers’ wins because they were recorded in the Missouri Valley. The Valley was the No. 8 conference this season. And they dominated that league.
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Michigan did not find its dominance until late in the season, when a program known for its offensive beauty embraced a defense-first approach that has led the Wolverines to the No. 4 ranking in defensive efficiency and to the championship of the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA West Region. Loyola may return to the mid-major kingdom after this weekend, when they can celebrate the improbability of becoming only the sixth Final Four team from their level since George Mason’s breakthrough in 2006. But for now the Ramblers are one of four teams with a chance to win the 2018 NCAA Championship.
Final Four matchup:
How to watch
The Final Four matchup between Loyola and Michigan will tip at 6:09 p.m ET. It will air on TBS and will be live-streamed on NCAA.com and the March Madness app.
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago
| Coach: Porter Moser, first Final Four |
| Overall record: 32-5 |
| Scoring leader: Clayton Custer, 13.2 ppg |
| Rebounding leader: Donte Ingram, 6.3 rpg |
| Assists leader: Clayton Custer, 4.2 apg |
| Famous non-athlete alum: Actor Bob Newhart |
Michigan
| Coach: John Beilein, 2 Final Fours |
| Overall record: 32-7 |
| Scoring leader: Moe Wagner, 14.3 ppg |
| Rebounding leader: Moe Wagner, 6.9 rpg |
| Assists leader: Zavier Simpson, 3.7 apg |
| Famous non-athlete alum: Actor Margo Martindale |
Best individual matchup: Michigan PG Zavier Simpson vs. Loyola PG Clayton Custer
Simpson has made himself into a tremendous on-ball defender, and his ability to disrupt the start of the Ramblers’ attack will be essential to the Wolverines’ defensive success. The Ramblers’ do not create a lot of offensive off the dribble, so it’s more important for UM to pressure the passer and force him to initiate offense from uncomfortable or unworkable positions.
Custer is the highest scorer by a smidge on a team that has five players averaging between 10.3 and 13.2. The Ramblers are not worried about who gets points, so long as the players getting them wear maroon uniforms. They do a phenomenal job throwing defenses off balance with their movement and getting the ball flowing to the rim. But if Simpson can foul up that machinery from the start, Loyola will have difficulty generating the necessary offense to win.
Critical coaching decision
Moser will have to decide about the ideal way to defend Michigan center Moe Wagner, who might be the most versatile big man in Division I. It’s especially challenging because Ramblers center Cameron Krutwig is a freshman and will be up against someone with an experience advantage. Krutwig handled himself, though, against Nevada’s positionless approach and was able to play 22 minutes and contribute nine points and seven rebounds.
The question for Loyola is whether to stretch out to the 3-point line and perhaps give up the straight-line drives that Michigan’s spread offense can produce, or to sag back to make Krutwig available to help against penetration but perhaps give Wagner open 3-pointers. Florida State allowed Wagner open shots; he is a .396 shooter from long range but was 0-for-7 in that game. Houston allowed him some room to shoot and he hit 2-of-4 from deep, but he was bothered inside and wound up with only nine shots.
Loyola does a fantastic job choking off penetration because its defensive help is so good. If the Wolverines have another rough day from distance they might struggle again to get their offense moving.
Most eye-popping stat: 110
By the time they take the court for the first of the national semifinals, Michigan and Loyola will have gone a combined 110 days without losing a game. Michigan last was defeated on Feb. 6 by Northwestern. Loyola’s most recent loss came at Bradley by a single basket. They are college basketball’s two hottest teams, with a combined 27 consecutive victories. Oh, and remember when so many wondered if the Big Ten’s tournament teams would suffer for having played their tournament a week earlier in order to hold the event in Madison Square Garden? Both the Wolverines and Ramblers won their conference tournaments on the same day, March 4, then waited 11 days to open in the NCAAs.
Get to know: Loyola center Cameron Krutwig
He's the closest thing this Final Four has to a one-and-done. There are only two freshman starters on the four teams, an unusually low number, but Krutwig has been in the Ramblers’ lineup for 33 of the team’s 37 games and is one of the five on the team to average double-figures in scoring. He’s also a big man in his band: the Six Cheersmen, who made a recording of Christmas music that he keeps handy on his Twitter account, He sings on Paul McCartney’s “Wonderful Christmastime” and such old classics as “Let it Snow” and “White Christmas.” As to whether it’s any good: He’s 6-9, 260 pounds. So he’s obviously a combination of Bing Crosby, Sam Cooke, Luther Vandross and Bruno Mars.
The pick: Michigan
The Wolverines have better size, athleticism and depth. The advantage Loyola has because of its togetherness and precision is mitigated against an opponent that has become just as adept at playing in unison but does it with bigger and more agile players. Both teams are willing to play at a slower pace, which could help Loyola because more possessions usually advantages the team with greater talent. Wagner must play better than he has for much of this tournament; he is averaging 12.5 points and shooting .473 from the field. Those numbers will not get it done in games this big.
One hesitates to say the Wolverines have a significant advantage in Beilein because Moser has done such a magnificent job, but it’s possible that right now there is no coach doing it all better than Beilein. And he has been in this game before, which never hurts. Veteran coaches are 9-5 against first-timers in the past 15 years.
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