SportsPulse: From San Antonio, our college basketball experts break down Loyola Chicago's chances of pulling off the unthinkable and getting to the national championship game. USA TODAY Sports
SAN ANTONIO — By the end of Saturday, four teams will be two and a national championship matchup will be set. The One Shining Moment annual highlight reel will almost be set, and it’s sure to be loaded with all the fantastic mayhem of this year’s NCAA tournament — the first No. 16 seed (UMBC) to stun a No. 1 (Virginia), Michigan freshman Jordan Poole’s 30-foot buzzer-beater, and of course lots of Sister Jean moments.
But before then, there’s plenty to examine. Here are five story lines for the national semifinal games.
Loyola-Chicago (11) vs. Michigan (3), 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS
Kansas (1) vs. Villanova (1), approx. 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS
1. Sister Jean’s Loyola-Chicago Ramblers are not just happy to be here.
The last three times No. 11 seeds reached the Final Four (LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006 and VCU in ’11), they lost and went home without reaching the title game. Not only is this Loyola team good enough to beat Michigan, the Ramblers are good enough to win the whole thing on Monday.
Much can be made of their patient, spread offense that relies on a different hero each game, and much can be made of how three of Loyola’s four wins in this tournament were won on last-second game winners (no other team has that type of late-game experience and proven poise in March Madness).
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But the real thing to look at here is how coach Porter Moser and his not-so-average Cinderella team has maintained the same “not finished” mindset through all the history they’re carving out. The big stage won’t shake them. They prepare and play with a maturity that shows that they believe they belong.
2. How will John Beilein create matchup problems for Loyola?
As many solid teams as Loyola faced in the South Regional to get to San Antonio — No. 6 Miami, No. 3 Tennessee, No. 7 Nevada and No. 9 Kansas State — no team has been as good as Michigan (especially on defense) and none of those teams featured an Xs and Os genius such as Beilein, who will utilize every edge his team has.
Michigan’s Moe Wagner will have to be on his A-game, and Beilein will likely have various sets that make Loyola’s freshman big man (Cameron Krutwig) step out of the paint more than he’s comfortable. “He definitely causes a matchup dilemma,” Loyola’s Moser said Friday.
More than that, it will be how Belein uses his guards’ athleticism to frustrate Loyola’s potent backcourt. Zavier Simpson and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman will have to stymie Missouri Valley player of the year Clayton Custer. And look for some post-up situations for bigger guards Duncan Robinson, Isaiah livers and Charles Matthews.
SportsPulse: USA TODAY Sports' Scott Gleeson and Lindsay Schnell make their predictions for who will win the Final Four matchup between Kansas and Villanova. USA TODAY Sports
3. Jalen Brunson vs. Devonte’ Graham.
Brunson and Graham shied away the story line that it’s two Wooden Award finalists and game-deciding point guards against each other. And as much as this will be a team game, whichever player of the year-caliber guard plays better will be the difference-maker in the battle of No. 1 seeds.
While Graham could face trouble with Brunson’s post-up moves, Brunson could have problems staying in front of Graham, who is more of a lethal outside shooter. Brunson’s efficiency has been the determining factor for Villanova all tournament, so any way Graham can limit that, as he had to do in the Big 12 against elite guards, will be huge.
4. Malik Newman’s Most Outstanding Player swagger.
Newman has taken the load off of Graham and other scorers, while becoming Kansas’ best player in this tournament. His 32 points, including 13 cin overtime, helped the Jayhawks survive a title-contending Duke team the Elite Eight. But Newman can affect the game in more ways than just his offense. He helped contain Grayson Allen against Duke, and could play a similar role in stopping Villanova's nation-leading offense — which ignites on the perimeter.
5. Villanova’s bigs vs. Udoka Azubuike.
No offense to any other player in the Final Four, but Azubuike might be the most important. The 7-footer’s play against Villanova’s two big men, Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall, will be a gigantic subplot. Because while both of these No. 1-seeded teams thrive on the perimeter, the game could likely be decided in the post.
Azubuike will have to stay out of foul trouble to give an undersized Kansas a chance to win, and any edge he can provide with his scoring in the paint could amplify a Jayhawks group that has many weapons from behind the arc.
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