We got some action on the Hot Stove even with the MLB season rapidly approaching. The Padres added 28-year-old right-hander Dylan Cease from the White Sox for three prospects and a veteran reliever. Cease was the AL Cy Young runner-up in 2022 and leads all MLB pitchers with 97 starts over the past three seasons. In that span, he’s posted a 3.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings, which is why he was thought by many to be the top pitcher on the market.
So what do we make of this trade?
White Sox trade Dylan Cease to the Padres for Drew Thrope, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, and Steven Wilson
For the last 24 hours, it felt as if it wasn’t a matter of if Dylan Cease would be traded this week but when. A deal between the White Sox and either the Rangers or Yankees seemed inevitable, and then the Padres came in out of nowhere and stole Cease away just eight hours before their team plane boards for Seoul to kick off their season in Korea against the Dodgers.
Well, “stole” probably isn’t the right word since the Padres had to part with three of their top 10 organizational prospects, all of whom were ranked inside the top 100 prospects by various scouting services.
Before we get to the prospects, we should focus on the star of the show. Cease will now play out the final two years of his current contract in San Diego, which is a far better situation for him than on a fledgling team in Chicago. For starters, he’s now on a playoff contender, which has to be good for morale. He also moves from the 17th-most hitter-friendly park, according to Statcast Park Factors, to the 29th-best. That’s pretty good news for a pitcher. He will now pitch in front of an infield defense that ranked 6th in Statcast’s Outs Above Average last year, compared to a White Sox defense that ranked 20th. However, the White Sox did have Nicky Lopez (9 OAA) taking over for Elvis Andrus (6 OAA) and Paul DeJong (9 OAA) taking over for Tim Anderson (-2 OAA), so their infield defense would likely have been much improved up the middle.
There is also an argument that Cease will move from one of the weakest offensive divisions to one of the best. While teams no longer face their own division as much as they did in the past, it will most likely make for a harder schedule. In fact, according to The Athletic, the White Sox were set to have the 7th-fewest games against teams with a winning record in 2023.
Yet, all of it is likely a moot point since the issue for Cease has never been the stadium he pitches in or the opponent he faces. The issue is command. Cease has some of the best raw stuff of any pitcher in baseball, but he often has trouble commanding it. The right-hander had a 10.1% walk rate in 2023, which was his third double-digit walk rate in the last three years. His 62% strike rate was below league average, as was his 41% zone rate and 15.5% called strike rate. What’s more, he allowed the worst Ideal Contact Rate (Barrels + Solid Contact + Flares/Burner divided by batted ball events) of his career, with a 43.2% rate that was 4% worse than the league average. He also had his lowest swinging strike rate and PutAway rate in three years.
If that continues, then it won’t matter how good the stadium he pitches in is or how good the infield defense is behind him. If you believe that Cease will improve his command this season, then this trade boosts his value, but if you were skeptical that he could harness his arsenal then his value doesn’t change much with this deal.
Depending on who you talk to, either Drew Thorpe or Jairo Iriarte is the centerpiece of the return. The 23-year-old Thorpe was also the main prospect who came to San Diego from the Yankees along with Michael King and others in the deal for Juan Soto, so it’s curious that the Padres would be willing to part with him so quickly. The right-hander posted a stellar 2.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 182/38 K/BB ratio across 139 1/3 innings (23 starts) last season between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset in New York’s system. He was also ranked as the 73rd-best prospect overall on FanGraphs pre-season Top 100 and was ranked 64th by ESPN along with being the 4th-best prospect in San Diego’s farm system. He features one of the best change-ups in the minor leagues, but his fastball is just 92 mph, and there are some real questions about the rest of his arsenal. He’s essentially MLB-ready now, but there were rumors on Tuesday that the White Sox were planning to sign Michael Lorenzen to fill Cease’s spot in the rotation, so it’s not yet clear when the White Sox will give Thorpe a chance to crack the MLB roster.
Jairo Iriarte is a 22-year-old right-hander who ranked ahead of Thorpe on FanGraph’s Top 100, coming in at 61st overall but was behind him on both ESPN and MLB Pipeline’s rankings. Still, he’s an intriguing prospect who pitched to a 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 128/45 K/BB ratio in 90.1 innings across High-A and Double-A last year. He features a 96 mph fastball with 15” of vertical break and 6.8 feet of extension, both of which are above average. He also features a slider that he added sweep to last year and a change-up. While the change-up is a work in progress, the slider is a plus swing-and-miss pitch. There is some concern that he’s just 160 pounds on his 6'2" frame, but he has the arsenal to wind up a more dynamic pitcher than Thorpe.
Samuel Zavala is the final prospect piece headed back to the White Sox. While he doesn’t feature on any Top 100 lists, he was the 9th-ranked prospect in the San Diego system and the 18-year-old could easily find himself inside the top 100 by the end of this season. In 2023, he hit .267/.420/.451 in 101 games in A ball with 14 HR, 71 RBI, 22 doubles, and 20 stolen bases. That’s an impressive line given his age at the level, and his near 20% walk rate shows a good feel for the strike zone. While there is some concern about his future hit tool, the outfielder remains young and was once thought to be one of the more polished hitters in the lower minors.
Steven Wilson is the last player headed to the White Sox. The 29-year-old threw 53 innings out of the bullpen for the Padres in each of the last two years, posting a combined 3.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 110/47 K/BB ratio in those 106 innings. He relies on his sweeper, which he throws 60% of the time, to limit hard contact but doesn’t miss many bats. His lack of strikeout upside makes it unlikely that he would factor into the late innings in Chicago but they don’t have many other options and weirder things have happened.
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