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Sorting out NFL contenders and pretenders: Playoff picture entering Week 7 includes legit teams and frauds - CBS Sports

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We are one-third of the way through the 2023 NFL season. Can you believe it? Through six weeks, we've seen surprises, disappointments, upsets and dominant performances. It's still relatively early, but who do you believe has the wherewithal to go all the way? And which teams will fade as the year goes on?

Below, we will sort out the contenders and pretenders in the NFL through six weeks among teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, complete with Pete Prisco's Week 7 Power Rankings as a guide. Let's start with the best teams in the league. 

Contenders

Kansas City Chiefs (5-1, 1st in AFC West)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 1

The reigning Super Bowl champions are obviously contenders. Now, Patrick Mahomes has not had the best start to the season, but the defense has been pretty impressive. Go back to last Thursday night and look at how Steve Spagnuolo shut down the Denver Broncos' passing attack. No, the Broncos aren't an offensive juggernaut, but K.C.'s cornerbacks dominated.

The Chiefs should be buyers at the trade deadline in my opinion, as that passing attack is Travis Kelce vs. the world, but Kansas City is a legitimate contender. 

San Francisco 49ers (5-1, 1st in NFC West)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 4

San Francisco finally dropped its first regular-season game since Oct. 23 last year. It was about time that happened, but who knew that loss would come to P.J. Walker? Maybe that's not fair, since it was the Cleveland Browns defense that really stood out. 

Brock Purdy came back to earth a bit with just 125 passing yards. Maybe he's not Tom Brady, but he may be the best quarterback San Francisco has had in quite some time. Purdy has plenty of weapons to utilize such as Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and the backing of a top three defense. Week 6 showed they aren't unbeatable, but the 49ers are contenders. 

Miami Dolphins (5-1, 1st in AFC East)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 2

All hail Mike McDaniel. The head coach who has turned Hard Rock Stadium into a virtual dance club. In three games at home this season, Miami has averaged 47.7 points per game, 558 yards of total offense per game and 8.8 yards per play. The Dolphins even played with their food against the Carolina Panthers, going down 14-0 in the first quarter. Of course they came back, and became the fifth team in NFL history to win a game by 21+ points after trailing by 14 points in the first quarter.

I don't have to sell you on Miami's offense. Tyreek Hill leads the NFL in receiving yards, Raheem Mostert leads the league in touchdowns, Tua Tagovailoa is the favorite right now to win MVP and Jaylen Waddle isn't bad either. It comes down to remaining healthy and defense, but with Jalen Ramsey on the way back and Vic Fangio in charge, I have faith the Dolphins aren't some early-season flash in the pan. 

Philadelphia Eagles (5-1, 1st in NFC East)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 5

Like the 49ers, the Eagles blew a double-digit lead on the road, and lost said lead in the final two minutes of the game to register their first 'L' of the season. I guess the Eagles were due for some regression from last year, but Philly is still a contender. 

The Eagles have the No. 2 offense in the league, the No. 9 defense and stars all over the field. Philly allowed Miles Sanders to walk this offseason and still have the No. 2 rushing offense in the NFL. I'm a little worried about the pass defense, but keep an eye on Howie Roseman at the trade deadline. Fly Eagles fly, still studs in the NFC. 

Baltimore Ravens (4-2, 1st in AFC North)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 9

I really like the Ravens despite the fact that they haven't registered that statement win yet. Lamar Jackson is throwing the ball well, Zay Flowers looks like a young star and Baltimore again has a top five rushing attack despite being without J.K. Dobbins. Remember, this is a new offense the Ravens are working through, and it could take off in the coming weeks. 

What makes the Ravens legitimate contenders is their defense. They rank No. 2 in yards per game through six weeks (260.8), and Roquan Smith is a bonafide stud. Baltimore got off to a hot start in the AFC North. Can the Ravens build on it?

Detroit Lions (5-1, 1st in NFC North)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 3

I've been hesitant to confidently declare the Lions as contenders, but I have no choice now. I even made the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 a best bet last week, and was flat-out embarrassed, as Jared Goff led Detroit to a 20-6 victory.

How's this for a stat: The Lions have gone 13-3 since Week 9 of last season. Only the 49ers (14-1) and Chiefs (14-2) have better records over that span. CBS Sports Senior NFL Writer Will Brinson said on the Pick Six Podcast Sunday night that if this Lions team was wearing different uniforms -- say, the Dallas Cowboys' unis -- we would be talking about this team as one of the most elite teams in the NFL.

The reason I was questioning this squad was because of the injuries on defense (Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Emmanuel Moseley), but it hasn't held the Lions back just yet. In fact, Detroit has the No. 7 defense through six weeks! 

Jared Goff has been balling. He's 13-3 in his last 16 starts, and has a 28-4 TD-INT ratio in those 16 games. David Montgomery has been fantastic, Jahmyr Gibbs will surely break out soon, Amon-Ra St. Brown is an elite wideout, Sam LaPorta is the best rookie tight end in recent memory and Jameson Williams will be a deep threat defenses have to account for. There's no way I'll be putting the Lions in the "pretender" category. 

Buffalo Bills (4-2, 2nd AFC East)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 8

My belief in the Bills is very shaky, and it's not because of how they struggled with Tyrod Taylor and the New York Giants. Losing both Tre'Davious White and Matt Milano for what could be the entire season are very serious hits to this defense. Still, this offense can keep up with anybody when it's clicking, and Josh Allen is still a special quarterback.

The Bills should make the playoffs, but they've been inconsistent early on. It's tough to make any grand declarations about this team right now, but Allen has won 11 games in each of the last three seasons. I'll give Buffalo the benefit of a doubt.

Dallas Cowboys (4-2, 2nd in NFC East)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 6

The Cowboys found a way to win a tight one against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night, so you have to tip your cap to them there. Mike McCarthy still makes some confusing decisions like waiting to call a timeout late in the second quarter to lay up for a field goal, but the Cowboys are undoubtedly a top 10 team that will likely have another chance in a couple months to change the narrative when it comes to their performance in the postseason.

Dak Prescott's wide receiving corps hasn't been as good as I expected it to be, Tony Pollard is averaging fewer rushing yards per game than he did last year and the defense lost a couple of playmakers including Trevon Diggs, but the Cowboys are a playoff team that will at least have a shot to make a run. Dallas is riding that fine line of contender vs. pretender. 

Pretenders

Cleveland Browns (3-2, 3rd in AFC North)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 10

I hate to put the Browns in the pretender category because they have an ELITE defense. This unit has allowed the fewest yards (1,002) through five games since 1971, and Jim Schwartz should be picking up votes for Coach of the Year even though he's not a lead man. This defense is going to keep the Browns in every game, but questions remain about the offense.

I want to know if Deshaun Watson will fully recover from his rotator cuff injury. CBS Sports Lead NFL Insider Jonathan Jones reports that the injury to the rotator cuff is a deep bruise in the back of the shoulder. The impacted muscle makes it difficult for the $230M QB to throw the ball with velocity.

It will be exciting to see how the AFC North shakes out and the Browns absolutely could make the playoffs. But I have more faith in the Ravens at this point, and then we don't know what will happen with the Cincinnati Bengals. Maybe the Browns belong in the "TBD" category. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2, 1st in AFC South)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 7

The Jaguars have a lot of things going for them. They've won three straight contests, are multiple games above .500 for the first time since Week 5 in 2018 and have already swept the season series with a divisional opponent. Travis Etienne also just became the first Jaguar to record two touchdowns from scrimmage in consecutive games since Maurice Jones-Drew in 2009, and is having a pretty epic season. The former Clemson star is fourth in the NFL in scrimmage yards! Still, do you think the Jaguars are really Super Bowl contenders? 

The Jaguars defense has forced a whopping 15 turnovers this season, but has the second-worst passing defense in the league through six weeks (270.3 yards per game). Jacksonville may be the best team in the AFC South, but at this point, it's hard to imagine them challenging the Chiefs or Dolphins for the AFC. They have a very important stretch of their season coming up, so we will learn more about this team shortly.

Seattle Seahawks (3-2, 2nd in NFC West)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 13

The Seahawks are statistically middle of the road offensively, and reigning Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith has thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game just once this season -- and needed overtime to do so. In the 17-13 loss to the Bengals on Sunday, Seattle went 1 for 5 in the red zone, which is a losing recipe. Seattle's defense is absolutely improved and honestly fun to watch, but I don't see this team as a Super Bowl contender right now. 

Los Angeles Rams (3-3, 3rd in NFC West)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 12

The Rams are better than their .500 record indicates. Matthew Stafford is No. 3 in the league with 1,677 passing yards, rookie phenom Puka Nacua is tied for the NFL lead with 50 receptions and ranks fourth in receiving yards with 598, Kyren Williams is fourth in rushing yards with 456 and then Cooper Kupp is averaging 133 receiving yards per game since returning to the lineup. L.A. is No. 7 in yards per game (367), but I don't know if they have that 2021 magic to go all the way. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2, 2nd in AFC North)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 22

I was high on the Steelers entering this season, but as everyone knows, the offense has sputtered out of the gate. I agree with the general consensus that offensive coordinator Matt Canada has played a large part in these struggles, because the Steelers possess talent on that side of the ball. Pittsburgh averages 268.2 total yards per game, which ranks third-worst in the NFL -- ahead of just the Giants and improving Bengals. 

The Steelers gutted out wins over the Browns, Las Vegas Raiders and Ravens, but dropped a pretty embarrassing game to the Houston Texans. Fans are hoping for a turnaround after the Week 6 bye, but I don't think anyone views the Steelers as a Super Bowl contender right now. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2, 1st in NFC South)

Prisco's Week 7 power ranking: 14

The Buccaneers are better than many thought they would be, and Baker Mayfield has been playing great football if you take away what happened on Sunday. Tampa Bay also has a solid defense, but ultimately, I don't view this team as a Super Bowl contender. 

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