We're on to the seventh weekend of the 2023 NFL season and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 7 slate. But just in case you need some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal on Sunday. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out on Sunday, including some player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news that you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Sunday's winners
Can Philadelphia stop Miami's ground game?
The Dolphins have the most efficient running attack in the NFL by a mile. Their 0.22 expected points added per designed carry blows away the rest of the league. In fact, the Eagles actually rank second in the category (0.06) but are closer to the 22nd-ranked Saints (minus-0.09) than the Dolphins. But Philadelphia looks like a team that can slow Miami's run game. It ranks second in run stop win rate (36%) and sixth in yards per carry allowed (3.6).
The only problem? Philadelphia's run-stuffing excels on interior runs (hello, Jordan Davis), where the Eagles have allowed just 3.4 yards per carry (third-best). The Dolphins, meanwhile, run outside more than anyone else (39% of the time). Philadelphia's outside run defense isn't bad, but it isn't as good, allowing 4.9 yards per carry (13th-best).
Who is the luckiest -- and unluckiest -- team so far?
I think this luck table created by Tom Bliss of the NFL's analytics group is informative. It measures the win probability added (or lost) through four measures that teams either have little to do with or have little to no value in predicting future success: interceptions dropped by opponents, passes dropped by opponents, opponent field goals/extra points and fumble recoveries by either team.
Luck dashboard updated thru week 6:
— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) October 17, 2023
- LAC leads in WPA and benefitted from highest WPA play of '23 (MIN dropped game winning TD with 7 secs left which was intercepted)
- CLE benefitted from 2nd highest WPA play (missed game winning FG by SF) pic.twitter.com/yD7M0IH7Re
The results? The Chargers have been the luckiest the team, earning 166% in win probability added -- more than 1.5 wins -- through those four factors. The Vikings (minus-134%) have been the unluckiest. So are most of us overrating the Chargers and underrating the Vikings? I think so.
How concerning is Jawaan Taylor's penalty habit?
Through 11 games, the Chiefs tackle has been flagged 11 times. That is more through six weeks than any player at any position since at least 2000, as far back as our penalty data goes.
Taylor, who has committed a penalty on 2.7% of his snaps, has cost the Chiefs 6.6 expected points added via his 10 accepted flags (or 7.2 EPA if you count his additional declined penalty). In other words, Taylor's flags alone have cost the Chiefs a touchdown in net points this season.
Should the Chargers stick with their two-high coverages?
It's no secret that two-high coverages are on the rise in the NFL. Leaguewide, they have increased every season since 2018, from 36% that year to 44% in 2023. And no one is pushing the limit more than the 2023 Chargers, who are running two-high coverages 63% of the time (highest of any team in a season in that span, if they keep up this pace all year).
But ... it's not working. The Chargers' opponents' 0.30 expected points added per play against two-high is the second-worst in the NFL currently, while their single-high coverage is allowing minus-0.02 EPA/play, 11th-best in the NFL.
Long gone are the days when two-high coverages made an impact against Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, too. Since the start of last season, he has a 76 QBR against single-high coverage and a 79 against two-high. He'll just throw shorter passes -- 6.8 air yards against single-high in that span, compared to 7.9 vs. two-high -- and take what the defense gives him.
What is causing New England's offensive implosion?
There's clearly a lot wrong with the Patriots' offense. Quarterback Mac Jones, coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien all deserve their fair share of blame, but there are some eye-popping individual player metrics that indicate poor play by non-Jones players, too.
Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded minus-85 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, worst among all running backs in the league.
Not one, not two, but three New England players rank in the bottom five of our Receiver Tracking Metrics' open score, which measures a player's ability to get open relative to expectations: JuJu Smith-Schuster (24 out of 100), Hunter Henry (27) and DeVante Parker (30). Only Indianapolis' Alec Pierce (23) is worse in the metric than any of the Patriots' trio.
Vederian Lowe has the worst pass block win rate at tackle (71%) of any qualifier at the position.
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Is Rhamondre Stevenson a top-20 fantasy RB vs. Bills?
Field Yates breaks down his fantasy ranking for Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 7.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders (43.2% rostered)
Over the past three games, Samuel has averaged 6.3 targets and 16.9 fantasy points. He has an excellent rapport with quarterback Sam Howell, as the pair has connected for 27 completions this season. The Giants' defense runs man coverage on 50.3% of opponent dropbacks, 10th-most in the NFL -- and it just so happens that Samuel has been the most productive Commanders receiver against man coverage so far this season.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (41.2% rostered)
Rice leads Chiefs wide receivers with 245 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 21 receptions. In three of his past four games, he had at least five targets and scored at least 11 fantasy points, and his stock is only growing in that offense. It should be a great matchup for the rookie against a Chargers defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders (33.0% rostered)
Howell has scored at least 18 fantasy points in four of his past five games. He is completing 68% of his pass attempts, so he can be trusted in fantasy lineups, especially if you have Anthony Richardson or Justin Fields on your roster and are in search of viable alternative options. New York is allowing 7.4 yards per attempt and has given up eight passing TDs, both bottom-10 numbers in the league.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers (22.4% rostered)
If you are streaming the tight end position, you shouldn't pass on Musgrave -- especially with six teams on a bye. He has scored at least 9.0 fantasy points in two of his past three games and will now face a Broncos defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. It's possible Musgrave becomes the third opponent tight end to score 20 or more fantasy points against Denver's defense.
Royce Freeman, RB, Los Angeles Rams (4.8% rostered)
Rookie Zach Evans, who was drafted in the sixth round in April, has received a lot of attention after Kyren Williams' ankle injury, but let's not forget about Freeman. He's a better pass-protector and has more experience than Evans, so Freeman should play a role in the Rams' backfield since Los Angeles ranks fifth in pass attempts.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Eagles cornerback Darius Slay will have an interception
Slay has only one interception this season, but he has broken up four passes and is coming off back-to-back seasons with three. He can sit low on the hip of wide receivers, almost baiting the quarterback to throw the ball. Slay looks to undercut crossers and in-breakers, which are the timing throws for Tua Tagovailoa in Miami's pass game. I think Slay can steal one from Tagovailoa, who has thrown five picks this season.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love will run for a touchdown
Love has just one rushing touchdown on the season, but I see opportunities for him coming against the Broncos. Keep an eye on him in the red zone, where the man coverage rate jumps for NFL defenses. Denver has played 18 snaps of goal-line man coverage, the most in the league this season. So it's a good time to call for a boot concept, with Love getting on the edge.
Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby will have two sacks
Crosby has 5.5 sacks on the season, and I expect that number to jump on Sunday against the Bears and rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent. Yes, Chicago rookie tackle right Darnell Wright has played well, posting a pass block win rate of 86.7%, but I still like the matchup for Crosby here. He can win late in the down when Bagent looks to eject from the pocket. Crosby is 12th in the league in pressure rate at 13.5% and 14th in pass rush win rate at edge at 21.7%.
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco will run for more than 75 yards
Pacheco has topped the 75-yard rushing mark only once this season, but I think the Chiefs will see lighter run fronts against the Chargers. Look for Brandon Staley's defense to lean on two-high shells, which should open the door for Pacheco in the Chiefs' zone-run game. The Kansas City back is 11th in rushing through six games with 387 yards.
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Yates: Pacheco has graduated to lineup-lock status
Field Yates is locking Isiah Pacheco into lineups and likes his Week 7 matchup against the Chargers.
Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III will rush for two touchdowns
Walker has run in multiple touchdowns in two of his five games this season, and he is tied for third in the NFL with six rushing scores. The matchup fits here with the Cardinals' defense, too -- Arizona has allowed seven red zone rushing scores, which is tied for the third-most in the league. Plus, Walker also has the home run ability to score a long one.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (neck) is questionable, but his chances are not considered great from what I'm hearing. He hasn't taken any team reps this week and hasn't yet been cleared for contact. Washington has prepared for both Jones and Tyrod Taylor this week.
With Davante Adams publicly frustrated with his diminished role, don't be surprised if the Raiders' top receiver gets a healthier target share on Sunday against Chicago. As one person with the team told me, the Raiders' offense has missed some opportunities to get Adams the ball and "he will get his organically," pointing out that Patriots coach Bill Belichick (last week's opponent) emphasizes taking away the opponents' No. 1 receiving option. Belichick didn't want to let Adams get going, hence the five targets (one more than the previous week).
Not only are his targets down, but he has also taken over-the-middle hits too often, which could add to the frustration. But this could be a get-right week for Adams.
The Bears are hoping Bagent can shock some people Sunday vs. the Raiders with Justin Fields not playing. As one person with the team told me, Bagent -- an undrafted quarterback out of Division II Shepherd -- is the kind of heady player who could stick in the NFL for a long time, most likely as a backup. "He really came in and battled his tail off [last week]," the person said. He proved to be a fast learner in the preseason, and he knows the full offense. So while this could be an adventure, the Bears do seem to trust him.
When I checked on Julio Jones' availability for the Eagles offense this weekend, I was told that hasn't been decided yet. But the veteran receiver has given himself a chance by looking in shape over the past two practices and acclimating after signing this week. How much can he handle on short notice? Expect a scaled-back role if the Eagles activate him from the practice squad.
There's cautious optimism in Cleveland that quarterback Deshaun Watson will be able to play Sunday against the Colts, but the team wants to see how his right shoulder responds to Friday's increased workload. A core issue with the injury over the past few weeks has been velocity on his throws.
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