10 Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks (2023) - FantasyPros

It all comes down to this. All of the offseason fantasy football draft prep. All of the mock drafts. All of the time you’ve spent preparing for your 2023 fantasy football drafts will come down to the next few weeks. Are you ready? As always, we’re here to help. Our analysts have put in the work to identify players they are targeting in drafts. You can find a few of their favorite fantasy football draft picks below. And for all of their targets and avoids, check out our articles from each analyst.

Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks

Justin Fields (QB – CHI)

He ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns last year, but Fields is going later than he should in most early drafts, possibly because people aren’t sure what sort of quarterback he will be. Fields may never again match last season’s 160 rushing attempts, but there’s untapped passing upside for a quarterback who threw for more than 200 yards only twice in 15 starts last season and never had more than 28 pass attempts in any game. It’s not hard to imagine Fields following the Jalen Hurts career path, where excellence as a runner is established early, and proficiency as a passer soon follows.

-Pat Fitzmaurice

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)

As one of the league’s premier pure rushers, Nick Chubb quietly amassed an impressive 1,525 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry again) and 13 touchdowns in 2022, finishing as the RB6 overall with a top 10 backfield opportunity share (64%). From Weeks 1-12, he was the RB4 overall and in points per game. However, his production tailed off towards the end of the season with the return of Deshaun Watson to the lineup, dropping him to RB23 overall in Weeks 13-17.

However, with Watson expected to raise the ceiling of the Browns’ offense with a full offseason back to football, Chubb’s fantasy production should remain more consistent throughout the 2023 season, making him a near-bust-proof draft pick. Last season alone, Chubb was just one of 3 running backs to finish inside the top-36 in every single game (Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler).

Chubb is currently the betting market’s favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +600 odds per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Additionally, with the departure of running backs Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson, Chubb could see an increase in opportunities in the receiving game. He demonstrated his ability in this area with a strong Week 18 performance, playing a season-high 75% snap share, running a route on 71% of dropbacks, and catching five-of-six targets (22% target share) for 45 yards. Chubb finished Week 18 as the RB1 overall.

Unproven 2022 fifth-rounder Jerome Ford is currently pegged as the No. 2 RB and has missed most of training camp with lower body injuries.

-Andrew Erickson

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

So many people are terrified to draft Taylor because of the contract-related feud pitting Taylor and his agent against Colts owner Jim Irsay and the Indy front office. But all of the acrimony has created a glorious buying opportunity, and I’ve been able to scoop up Taylor around the second-round/third-round turn. Taylor has no leverage in his standoff with the team. He’s going to play in Week 1. Trust me.

The consensus No. 1 pick in 2022 fantasy drafts, Taylor disappointed investors last season due largely to ankle problems that caused him to miss six games and clearly hindered him in several others. Forget about last year’s letdown and try to remember that Taylor scored 32 touchdowns in his first 32 NFL games. He led the league in rushing in 2021 and averaged 127.7 yards from scrimmage per game that season.

Rookie QB Anthony Richardson’s rushing ability could give Taylor’s efficiency a turbo boost since defenses will have to honor the possibility of Richardson keeping the ball on run-pass options (RPOs) and running himself. Imagine being a linebacker, seeing Richardson tuck the ball into Taylor’s breadbasket and having to discern whether the speedy, 244-pound Richardson is actually handing the ball off or keeping it and running himself. One false move, and either Taylor or Richardson is presented with a gaping hole in the defense.

Fade all the pessimism; I love Taylor’s outlook for 2023.

-Pat Fitzmaurice

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)

I know my standing with Tony Pollard as my RB1 isn't the most popular take, but I won't back down from loving players with otherworldly efficiency, especially ones that step into a lead role. We have long pinned to see Pollard in a lead-back role, and now once we finally get it, people are backing off their Pollard love. Last year Pollard authored an RB8 finish while ranking 30th in snap share (50.9%) and 34th in opportunity share (48.1%). Pollard is a fantasy monster that will be unleashed in 2023. Last season he was top-five in breakaway run rate, yards created per touch, yards per route run, and yards per touch. Pollard will cede some snaps to another back this season, whether that's Malik Davis, Rico Dowdle, or another replacement level shmo. This won't deter Pollard from his destiny as a top-three running back in fantasy in 2023. His ceiling is Austin Ekeler 2.0.

-Derek Brown

Cam Akers (RB – LAR)

Akers led the NFL in rushing over the final six weeks of the 2022 regular season and ranked RB4 in half-point point per reception (PPR) scoring over that stretch. He had more than 100 rushing yards in each of his last three games. Now two years removed from the torn Achilles that wiped out most of his 2021 season, Akers doesn’t have much in-house competition for carries, and the Rams’ 2023 schedule is littered with opponents that had mediocre run defenses last year.

-Pat Fitzmaurice

Christian Watson (WR – GB)

At this point, I should get “Christian Watson stan” tattooed on my chest. My love for Watson is never-ending. After a slow start last year due to injuries and the need to develop a rapport with his rookie-hating pouty former quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Watson’s talent finally bubbled to the top. In Weeks 10-18, Watson had six games in which he played at least 80% of the snaps. In those games, he earned a 23.4% target share, 42.9% end zone target share, and a 26% target per route run rate. He rolled up 3.07 yards per route run during that string of games. Watson ranked 14th in open score last year, immediately behind Garrett Wilson. If Jordan Love hopes to have a successful season as the new starter in Green Bay, he’ll need to lean on Watson heavily. Watson has monster WR1 upside.

-Derek Brown

Drake London (WR – ATL)

As a rookie, London had a 29.4% target share. He also had a 32.4% target rate, meaning he was targeted on 32.4 of all his pass routes and averaged 2.07 yards per route run. Yes, London’s target share spiked after TE Kyle Pitts got hurt during the latter part of the season. But there’s really no one in the Atlanta offense other than London and Pitts who will see a lot of targets this year. And London is just scratching the surface of his abilities. He turns 22 later this month, and London wasn’t even of legal drinking age when he showed up at the Falcons’ training camp a year ago.

-Pat Fitzmaurice

Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)

Jerry Jeudy impressed tremendously down the stretch when healthy. No player scored more fantasy points in (PPR) with a sub-75% overall route participation or posted higher yards per route run versus man coverage than Jeudy last season. He also finished 13th in target rate per route run (23%).

And in Jeudy’s last six games, he earned a 25% target share and finished fifth in receiving yards overall. From Week 10 onward, the Broncos wide receiver led the NFL in yards per route run (2.71). He was averaging the 10th-most fantasy points per game from Week 7 onward in half-PPR (13.5).

Over Jeudy's final five weeks (when he was playing a full allotment of snaps after injury) - Weeks 14 onward...the WR3 overall in points per game (half-PPR) and WR4 in full PPR.

Obviously, any upgraded quarterback play is great for Jeudy because he easily projects as the No. 1 WR on the offense from a volume perspective. And last year, he finally showed that he could score fantasy points finishing as the WR21, after failing to crack the top-45 his first two years in the league. With great route-running and separation skills to boot, Jeudy’s stock should continue to rise.

-Andrew Erickson

Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)

Diontae Johnson is slated for a massive bounce-back campaign. He didn't score last season - likely a fluke - and that’s being held against him. Even though DJ ranks: 5th in total targets (460), 7th in receptions (281) and 9th in target share (25%) over the past 3 seasons. Johnson's ability to command targets based on his 28% target share and seventh-ranked 137 targets in 2022 suggests he is a prime candidate for positive regression in many facets. His combined downfield targets and red-zone targets were the most of any player not to score in 2022. Those trends don't tend to carry over from year-to-year. Buy-low on the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game from last season. His WR30 ADP is insulting.

-Andrew Erickson

Darren Waller (TE – NYG)

Waller will likely be my highest-rostered tight end this year in all formats. The upside case for Waller is worth going overweight for, because it isn’t being priced into his ADP. Is injury risk present? Sure, but that fear is what’s pushing him down draft boards. If you don’t want to follow me down this road, I get it, but if Waller stays healthy, he will be one of the best value picks of 2023. Waller’s talent hasn’t diminished, and his situation could create a perfect storm for him to rival Travis Kelce. Last year, Waller was 13th in receiving grade, 12th in yards per route run, and first in yards per route run against man coverage (per PFF). The last time we saw Waller flanked by league-average wide receiver talent, he was first in targets (145), first in target share (28.7%), and the TE2 in fantasy points per game. Waller the baller will be back in 2023.

-Derek Brown

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