It’s hard to believe, but there is only one more game to play in this 2022-23 college basketball season. It has been a joyful, volatile ride, but we have a terrific matchup to take us through the finish line. And I have one more chance to finish above .500 against the spread for the 2023 men’s NCAA Tournament.
So it is I present to you my One Shining Prediction. Enjoy the game tonight, everyone, and thanks for riding with me all season long.
2023 NCAA Tournament: 33-33
2022-23 regular season: 45-30
Tonight’s line is via BetMGM.
No. 4 UConn (-7 1/2) vs. No. 5 San Diego State, 9:20 p.m. ET, CBS. Miami is a really good basketball team, but for most of Saturday night, UConn made the Hurricanes look positively meh. The Huskies raced out to a 14-4 lead (courtesy of two 3-pointers from 6-9 junior forward Adama Sanogo), led by 13 at halftime, expanded their lead to 20 early in the second half, and except for one brief period where Miami closed to within eight, was never threatened en route to a 72-59 yawner.
That was impressive enough, but it especially so when you consider the Huskies didn’t even have their A game. Their best player, Jordan Hawkins, was saddled by a stomach bug that limited him to 13 points. Their best playmaker and Glue Guy, Andre Jackson Jr., got into foul trouble early in the first half and had six points and four assists in 22 minutes. All eight of UConn’s rotation players scored, led by Sanogo’s 21 points and 10 rebounds. By the time the championship game starts, Hawkins will have had another 48 hours to rest and recover, Jackson will be eager to use his mulligan, and the rest of the Huskies will be brimming with confidence knowing they were able to contribute on the biggest stage when their team needed them most.
The performance was merely an extension of what UConn has done throughout this tournament. Each of the Huskies’ five wins have come by double digits. They blitzed a really good Gonzaga team by 28 points in the Elite Eight. They have everything a team needs to win a national championship — shooting, size, speed, athleticism, depth rebounding, efficient defense, the ability to score inside and out, and to play in the halfcourt or in transition. And they have a tough-minded head coach who descends from basketball royalty.
San Diego State, meanwhile, has won each of its last two games by a single point, including Saturday’s dramatic triumph over Florida Atlantic that came courtesy of Lamont Butler’s game-winner. The Aztecs play fantastic defense — they’re ranked No. 4 nationally in adjusted efficiency on KenPom — but they showed some vulnerability against FAU. The Aztecs came into the semifinal having held opponents to 17 percent 3-point shooting in the tournament, but the Owls sank 41 percent in their 22 attempts and scored 71 points. SDSU also got just one more rebound even though the Owls are ranked No. 328 in height on KenPom. UConn is 28th in height, and the Huskies are also ranked No. 2 in the country in offensive rebound percentage. So that’s another area the Aztecs are used to dominating but will be playing even (or potentially at a disadvantage) tonight.
There are two ways in which San Diego State can pull off this upset. The first is to make it a grinding halfcourt affair. That is very plausible. The Aztecs have only averaged 10.0 turnovers per game in the tournament, and they have held their opponents to 60.0 points per game. When it comes to setting the pace, the team that wants to play slow always has the advantage over the team that wants to play fast. If nothing else, that would be a reason to believe San Diego State can stay close enough to cover this considerable point spread. UConn is clearly the better team, but 7 1/2 points is a lot of wood to lay in a national championship game.
The other way San Diego State could win is to shoot lights out from 3-point range. That is implausible. The Aztecs averaged 19.9 3-point attempts per game this season, which ranks 264th in the country, and in the tournament, they are making 33.3 percent as a team. Their leading scorer, 6-4 senior guard Matt Bradley, finally broke out of his slump for 21 points on 4 of 8 3-point shooting on Saturday night, but he is going to be facing one of the top perimeter defenders in the country tonight in Jackson. There is no doubt that UConn coach Dan Hurley will tell Jackson that it is his job to make sure Bradley does not get any clean looks, thereby forcing the other Aztecs to make up for it. Those guys have stepped up at times (especially Butler and 5-10 senior guard Darrion Trammell), but to win a national championship, your best players have to be at their best. Jackson will make sure that Bradley is not at his best.
To be sure, there is ample reason why San Diego State is playing in this game. Still, as was the case Saturday night with Miami, the Aztecs will find themselves overmatched by a superior opponent that is performing at maximum capacity. We can search for ways that San Diego State might win this game or at least keep it close, but that would require looking deep into the dirt when the forest is telling us something obvious. UConn will control this game, knock down the requisite free throws to salt it away, and win by double digits to claim the school’s fifth NCAA championship. The pick: UConn
(Photo of Matt Bradley: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images
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