After pulling off first-round upsets, the Miami Heat and New York Knicks meet in Game 1 of their best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinal series on Sunday. The Heat (44-38), who survived the play-in tournament and entered the postseason as the No. 8 seed, outmuscled and stunned the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games in the first round. The Knicks (47-35), who finished third in the Atlantic Division to earn the fifth seed, dominated the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round to advance in five games. The Heat were 17-24 on the road this season, while the Knicks were 23-18 at home.
Tipoff from Madison Square Garden in New York is set for 1 p.m. ET. New York is a 5-point favorite in the latest Heat vs. Knicks odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 208. Before locking in any Knicks vs. Heat picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the third week of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Knicks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Knicks vs. Heat:
- Knicks vs. Heat spread: Knicks -5
- Knicks vs. Heat over/under: 208 points
- Knicks vs. Heat money line: Heat +170, Knicks -205
- MIA: The Heat are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall
- NY: The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on three or more days rest
- Knicks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Knicks can cover
Power forward Julius Randle, who is questionable with an ankle injury, has been hobbled during the postseason after being an offensive force during the regular season. He scored 13 points, dished out six assists and grabbed four rebounds in the Game 5 win at Cleveland on Wednesday. He produced a double-double in the series opener, scoring 19 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. For the postseason, he is averaging 14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and three assists.
Shooting guard Josh Hart is one of four New York players averaging double-digit scoring in the postseason. He scored 19 points and grabbed seven rebounds in the 102-93 Game 4 victory over Cleveland. Although he followed that up with just four points in Game 5, he was dominant on the boards, garnering 12 rebounds. He had a double-double in Game 1 with 17 points and 10 rebounds. In five regular-season games against Miami, Hart averaged 11.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.2 steals, splitting his time between Portland and the Knicks. See which side to back at SportsLine.
Why the Heat can cover
Despite that, New York isn't a lock to cover the Heat vs. Knicks spread. That's because Miami has been on fire despite losing point guard Tyler Herro (hand) and shooting guard Victor Oladipo (knee) to injury. Leading the way is small forward Jimmy Butler, who nearly single-handedly brought down the top-seeded Bucks in the first round. In the Game 5 close-out win, he helped the Heat rally from double-figures down in the fourth quarter to force overtime and then pull out the win, scoring 42 points and grabbing eight rebounds. He had 56 points and nine boards in Game 4. In five playoff games, Butler is averaging 37.6 points, six rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals in 37.2 minutes of action.
Helping Butler is center Bam Adebayo, who is listed as probable after injuring his hamstring. He had a triple-double in the Game 5 win over Milwaukee, scoring 20 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out 10 assists. He registered a double-double in the Game 3 win with 12 points and 11 rebounds. For the postseason, Adebayo is averaging 17.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, five assists and 1.6 steals in 31.6 minutes. See which side to back at SportsLine.
How to make Heat vs. Knicks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 210 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. See who to back at SportsLine.
So who wins Knicks vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 71-38 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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