With the 2022-23 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
The Nets ranked 26th in the NBA in post-All-Star points per game, and while Philadelphia's offense was significantly more efficient, it's worth noting that the slow pace the 76ers play with allowed them to rank only 12th in that same statistic. Methodical, half-court offense is a good way to win in the playoffs... but that doesn't mean it's going to lead to gaudy point totals. It's also likely going to take the 76ers a game or two to adjust to Brooklyn's unconventional defensive personnel. The Nets theoretically have the players to play almost any defensive scheme. They have the wings to switch, the rim-protection to drop and the help-speed to double. Philadelphia will find the answers eventually. That's usually what happens when one team has significantly better players. But the Nets were tailor-made to serve as a first-round annoyance. Expect a low-scoring Game 1. The pick: Under 214.5
Boston has won the last four games Jayson Tatum has played against Atlanta by at least nine points each. As the Heat proved last postseason, defenses that can consistently switch are a problem for Trae Young because it deprives him of his ability to hunt for matchups, drive into floaters and throw lobs. Switching is less of a concern for Dejounte Murray given his comfort making tough shots, but Boston's army of perimeter defenders will at least make him uncomfortable. Ironically, the Hawks might have been better served falling to No. 8 and facing a Milwaukee Bucks team they've already faced in a playoff setting. Boston just presents a variety of matchup problems that the Hawks likely won't be able to overcome. The pick: Celtics -9
Julius Randle is a game-time decision for Game 1, but even if he plays, his recent postseason history is suspect at best. If De'Andre Hunter could shut him down at full strength, what is Evan Mobley going to do to the compromised version of him? This is simply a poor matchup for a Knicks team that relies really heavily on scoring near the basket. Mobley and Jarrett Allen are arguably the best rim-protecting duo in the NBA. Until the Knicks prove they can score on those two, I'm taking the Cavs. The pick: Cavaliers -5
Steve Kerr tends to exercise caution when it comes to players returning from injury. Remember, he brought Stephen Curry off of the bench for the first four games of the 2022 postseason, and he played him only around 43 combined minutes in the first two games of Golden State's series against Denver. That is roughly the minutes limit we should expect for Andrew Wiggins on Saturday, as The Athletic reported. Curry could post gaudy individual stat lines in that time, but expect Wiggins to struggle a bit more against a raucous Sacramento crowd. Wiggins should be his old self by the end of the series, but temper your expectations for Game 1. The pick: Wiggins under 11.5 points
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