The fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers look to even up the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday night when they host the second-seeded Boston Celtics in Game 4 as solid home favorites at the sportsbooks.
The home team is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread so far in the series, winning by an average of nearly 23 points.
NBA point spread: The Cavaliers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total is at 206.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 108.6-98.0, Cavaliers (NBA picks on every game)
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Why the Celtics can cover the spread
The Celtics are a much better team than they showed in Game 3, especially on the defensive end. They surrendered their highest point total since getting routed 116-92 in Game 3 against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs and rebounded to at least cover the spread as six-point underdogs despite falling 104-102 in Game 4 of that series.
Boston is still 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, while Cleveland has covered the spread in consecutive games only once since the end of the regular season. Game 4 should be much closer.
Why the Cavaliers can cover the spread
The Cavaliers have to feel pretty good about their chances now after bouncing back with a dominant performance in Game 3 on Saturday. They helped out LeBron James, which was the most important part, as all five starters scored in double figures for the first time since Game 4 versus the top-seeded Toronto Raptors in the second round.
That balance has been important for Cleveland and will be moving forward. As long as role players like Kyle Korver (14 points), George Hill (13), JR Smith (11) and Jordan Clarkson (nine) can keep hitting from the outside—they each connected on at least three three-pointers—James will have a shot at returning to the NBA Finals.
Smart betting pick
This is the biggest game of the series for obvious reasons. If the Celtics win, they head home with a 3-1 series lead. If the Cavaliers win, they return to the role of favorites, and James will be in prime position to win his eighth straight conference championship between playing for them and the Miami Heat.
Look for the latter to happen, as Cleveland wins and wins big to cover the spread for the second time in a row.
NBA betting trends
Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
The total has gone under in five of Boston's last six games.
The total has gone under in four of Cleveland's last five games.
All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.
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