Reassessing Michigan's NCAA Tournament path after wild opening weekend

ANN ARBOR -- By the time the Wolverines unpacked their bags back in Ann Arbor on Sunday, they found themselves in an unexpected position. Virginia, the NCAA Tournament's No. 1 overall seed, had lost on Friday. No. 3 seed Tennessee lost on Saturday. On Sunday, another top seed, Xavier, went down, as did No. 2 seeds Cincinnati and North Carolina. Just like that, Michigan, a 3 seed, was the highest seed left in not just the West Region but the entire left side of the bracket.

A major earthquake has rocked the March Madness field, and Michigan is among a handful of favorites whose house is still standing. The Wolverines get No. 7 seed Texas A&M in Thursday's Sweet 16 matchup.

Expectations have changed only slightly for Michigan, however. Remember, U-M was among the top five favorites to win the entire thing before the Tournament started. Its odds in that regard have held steady (10/1) despite the chaos. A baby blue-colored roadblock has been removed, but Gonzaga is still the favorite to get to the Final Four out of the West.

There's a reason ESPN ranked Michigan 15th out of the 16 teams remaining. MLive reached out to the author for comment and learned the subjective re-seeding was based on how the teams had played in the Tournament so far. And it's no secret that Michigan was not sharp in Wichita.

The Wolverines shot a combined 39.6 percent in their two games, failing to crack one point per possession after doing so in nine straight games -- all wins -- leading up to the Big Dance. Turnovers were a problem against Montana, but not so much against Houston.

"We're doing some things that -- I don't know," John Beilein said after the Houston game, struggling to find the right words. "We've got to address them and try to get better. We've only lost seven games. But those seven losses, I felt we did some things that just don't make sense." Beilein referenced foul trouble and unforced giveaways. "We've got to shake off some of those jitters."

Duncan Robinson was more blunt: "I don't think these last two games we really played that well."

The Wolverines' defense has carried them so far, but they've been unable to turn those stops into baskets. Other than Charles Matthews, no Wolverine has found his groove offensively. Moritz Wagner, plagued by foul trouble, attempted just 15 shots in the two games. So much of what Michigan runs is contingent on Wagner's presence, and he played just 23 minutes against Houston.

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman caught fire in New York during the Big Ten Tournament. He's 1-of-12 from 3 so far. Point guard Zavier Simpson hasn't carried over his brilliant playmaking from New York.

"When I looked at the video, we had a lot of open shots," Beilein said on his radio show Monday night, later adding, "Sometimes they miss more than they make. But they come back to the median."

Michigan, of course, made enough shots in Wichita to earn a trip to Los Angeles.

Survive and advance. Michigan has done what so many other favorites couldn't last weekend. This week, the margin for error figures to get smaller. To stay in this Tournament, Michigan needs to play like it did to get here.

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