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Cowboys vs. Dolphins odds, line, spread, start time: 2023 NFL picks, Week 16 predictions from proven model - CBS Sports

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In one of the best matchups on the Week 16 NFL schedule, the Miami Dolphins (10-4) will host the Dallas Cowboys (10-4) in a pivotal cross-conference matchup. Both of these teams have legitimate title aspirations but haven't always played their best football against other top teams in recent years. This is an opportunity for both of these franchises to earn a critical, confidence-building win ahead of the NFL playoffs.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins are favored by 1 point in the latest Dolphins vs. Cowboys odds, while the over/under is 48.5 points via SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Cowboys vs. Dolphins picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model has set its sights on Dallas vs. Miami. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the game:

  • Dolphins vs. Cowboys spread: Dolphins -1
  • Dolphins vs. Cowboys over/under: 48.5 points
  • Dolphins vs. Cowboys money line: Dolphins -118, Cowboys +102
  • Dolphins vs. Cowboys picks: See picks here
  • Dolphins vs. Cowboys live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Dolphins can cover

Miami has won four of its last five games and the lone loss was an inexplicable collapse at home against the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football in Week 14. The Dolphins rebounded with a 30-0 win over the Jets last week, their seventh win by at least 14 points this season, and now Mike McDaniel will be looking to kill the narrative that Miami can't beat top teams.

His offense ranks first in the NFL in points (441) and total yardage (5,797) through 14 games and his defense ranks 14th in points allowed (291) and fifth in yards allowed (4,108). Now they'll take on a Cowboys defense that has shown its underbelly in recent weeks, giving up 35 points to the Seahawks three weeks ago and 31 points to the Bills last week. See which team to pick here.

Why the Cowboys can cover

Dallas has dominated this head-to-head series in recent years, winning six of the last seven meetings and covering five times during that stretch. The Cowboys had rattled off five consecutive wins prior to their loss in Buffalo, beating Philadelphia and Seattle during that stretch. They are only ahead of the Eagles via the tiebreaker, so they cannot afford a loss on Sunday. 

Veteran quarterback Dak Prescott has been an MVP contender throughout the season, passing for 3,639 yards, 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has racked up 103 receptions for 1,306 yards and eight scores, while running back Tony Pollard has rushed for 848 yards and five touchdowns. The Cowboys have covered the spread in six of their last nine games. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Dolphins vs. Cowboys picks

The model has simulated Cowboys vs. Dolphins 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Dolphins vs. Cowboys, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Cowboys vs. Dolphins spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 178-129 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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