The Miami Heat are hosting the Denver Nuggets in a primetime affair on Friday night. This will be a crucial contest for the Heat as they look to avoid dropping their fourth straight home game and falling down 3-1 in the 2023 NBA Finals. In Game 3, the Nuggets outmatched Miami 109-94. Denver is dominating down low, owning a +48 margin in the paint during the series.
The game from Kaseya Center in Miami will tip off at 8:30 p.m. ET. Denver is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Nuggets vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 211. Before making any Heat vs. Nuggets picks, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine NBA expert Matthew Severance has to say.
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over his past 164 NBA picks, he is 106-57-1 against the spread, returning $3,379 for $100 players. Anybody following him has seen huge returns.
Now, Severance has set his sights on Nuggets vs. Heat and just locked in his picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Nuggets:
- Nuggets vs. Heat spread: Denver -3.5
- Nuggets vs. Heat over/under: 211 points
- Nuggets vs. Heat money line: Denver -165, Miami +140
- MIA: The Heat are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games following an ATS loss
- DEN: The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games
- Nuggets vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Nuggets can cover
Forward Aaron Gordon plays a major role for Denver. Gordon is tasked with defending the opposing team's best player due to his lateral quickness and length. The Arizona product finishes with force in the lane and hovers around the rim. Gordon is averaging 13 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in the 2023 NBA playoffs. In his last outing, he had 11 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists.
The Nuggets have plenty of valuable role players that provide terrific minutes. Guard Christian Braun provides this group with outstanding effort and fight. Braun plays gritty defense and has a knack for causing turnovers. The Kansas product also is relentlessly cutting to the rim. In Denver's Game 3 win, he racked up 15 points and four rebounds. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
Guard Gabe Vincent is a smooth-scoring threat in the backcourt. Vincent has a nice jumper on the perimeter with solid court vision as a facilitator. The 26-year-old is third on the team in points (13.6) along with 3.7 assists per game in the playoffs. Additionally, he's shooting 40% from downtown. In Miami's Game 2 victory, Martin finished with 23 points and made four 3-pointers.
There are a few snipers on the outside for this group. Guard Duncan Robinson excels at moving without the ball to create separation from defenders. He's averaging 9.0 points while making 44% of his 3-pointers. In Game 2, he totaled 10 points and made two 3-pointers. Guard Max Strus is also a sharpshooter. Strus thrives as a catch-and-shoot option. He has scored in double figures with at least two 3-pointers in two of his last five outings. See which team to pick here.
How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks
Severance is leaning Under on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread to back, at SportsLine.
Who wins Nuggets vs. Heat, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the expert who has returned $3,379 to $100 players over his last 164 NBA picks, and find out.
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