The seemingly impossible comeback is nearly complete. The Celtics became just the fourth team to rally from a 3-0 deficit in NBA postseason history and they are the first team to host a Game 7 after doing so. The Heat won the first three games of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals, including the first two in Boston as the Heat return to TD Garden for Game 7 on Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET. No NBA team has won a series after trailing 3-0. Gabe Vincent (ankle) is questionable for Miami, while Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) is questionable for Boston.
The road team has won four of six games in the East Finals, and the Heat hope to continue that trend. Miami seemed to have Game 6 wrapped up at home on Saturday before Derrick White's put-back as time expired forced a Game 7. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 7.5-point favorite, while the over/under is 204 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds. Before locking in any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -7.5
- Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 204 points
- Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -305, Heat +240
- MIA: The Heat are 21-27-1 against the spread in road games
- BOS: The Celtics are 29-22 against the spread in home games
- Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Heat can cover
Miami won't be fazed by the atmosphere at TD Garden in Boston. The Heat are 2-1 in the building during the series, scoring more than 1.18 points per possession in those three games. Miami has a stellar 33.6% offensive rebound rate in games played in Boston, and the Celtics are also just 5-5 at home during the postseason. In addition, Miami is well-coached by Erik Spoelstra, and there were positive signs in Game 6 despite the loss.
The Heat committed only five turnovers in the game and were 14 of 30 from 3-point range. Miami struggled mightily inside the arc in a way that isn't indicative of talent deficiency, and the Heat are scoring more than 1.16 points per possession in the playoffs. The Heat are also winning the turnover battle in the series, and Miami has a 30.2% offensive rebound rate against Boston that allows Miami to win the overall possession battle. See which team to pick here.
Why the Celtics can cover
The Celtics outscored Miami by 30 points in Game 5 and Game 6 before Saturday's last-second victory and have reminded people of their 57-win form from the regular season. Boston was the overwhelming favorite entering the series before dropping the first three games. The Celtics were tied for the best record at home during the regular season at 32-9 as they look to become the first NBA team to rally from a 3-0 deficit.
Jayson Tatum is averaging 28.3 points over the last three games for Boston. Jimmy Butler shot 5 of 21 from the field in Game 6, and even though Miami shot 46.7% (14 of 30) from beyond the arc, it wasn't enough to put Boston away in Miami. Jaylen Brown had 47 total points and has shot at least 50% from the field over the last two games, including posting 26 points and 10 rebounds in Game 6. See which team to pick here.
How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 216 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season.
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