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Mandel’s Mailbag: What’s the real impact of Big Ten CFB and CBB no longer on ESPN? - The Athletic

For years and years, it was a weekly rite of passage. Lee Corso would don the head gear and wave good bye from the College GameDay set, at which point ESPN would take us to a crowd shot in Evanston or West Lafayette for whatever C-list Big Ten game they’d stuck in the early window.

It will be the end of an era starting next season, as the Big Ten and Disney families wave their goodbyes. And by the season after that, we may hear Rece Davis say something like, “Coming up next, it’s Tennessee at Texas.”

But that won’t be remotely as jarring as turning on CBS in the middle of the day and hearing the familiar that familiar SEC on CBS theme music playing over a crowd shot of … Beaver Stadium?

And don’t even get me started on trying to find an Indiana-Minnesota game on Peacock.

(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)

What is the real impact of the Big Ten not being on ESPN in 2024? While the Big Ten possibly loses prominence on the most important media outlet in the sport, it’s not like GameDay is going to ignore the Midwest and L.A. markets. The College Football Playoff show has to cover the rankings, so it’s not like Ohio State is going to be ignored. However, while no one cares, I’d imagine sports like basketball lose viewers if games are parked on FS1 instead of ESPN. — Dan K., Minneapolis

If ESPN isn’t a part of the Big Ten’s new deal, that has to bode well for the Big 12 and Pac-12, right? How much space will ESPN have left to fill if it isn’t broadcasting any B1G games? In that same vein, how much space will Fox have left to fill, given that it’ll be giving up a couple of key games to CBS and NBC? — Andrew G., Fort Worth, TX

I agree with Dan that for football at least, the significance of ESPN losing the Big Ten is largely symbolic. I don’t buy the conspiracy theories that ESPN will start treating the Big Ten the way it did the NHL. It’s not going to suddenly ignore huge brands like Ohio State and Michigan. Maybe GameDay comes to town less often, but turning that show into a glorified SEC Nation is only going to alienate a huge chunk of the viewership.

It’s more that this marks the end of a roughly 25-year period where ABC/ESPN monopolized college football. Even though it still has the CFP and every other major conference, it’s hard to say that’s still the case without rights to one of the two most important conferences. It’s also likely a preview of things to come when ESPN’s CFP contract ends after 2025. The expanded CFP will almost certainly be shared between ESPN, Fox and perhaps even CBS/NBC.

The Big Ten is much more likely to feel the ESPN void during basketball season. It’s been my experience that, if you walk into any restaurant or airport bar in America on a weeknight in February, the TVs by default are showing whatever hoops games happen to be on ESPN and ESPN2 that night. So the Big Ten may be largely out of sight, out of mind during that period. But I can’t emphasize enough how insignificant regular-season college basketball is to TV. CBS, which is reportedly set to pay $350 million per year for around 13 Big Ten football games, currently has an annual 13-game Big Ten basketball package for which it pays … $10 million.

As for Andrew’s question, ESPN losing the Big Ten is the best news Pac-12 fans have received since … I’m struggling to think of the last time there was good Pac-12 news. Negotiations are already underway for its next deal, and suddenly ESPN has cash to burn and time slots to fill. Also: It now has incentive to make a strong enough offer to perhaps convince Oregon/Washington/Stanford to sign at least a short-term Grant of Rights. It would not be ideal for ESPN to lose more programs to a conference it no longer holds any rights to.

The Big 12 should benefit too. However, as much as Big 12 fans hate me pointing this out, its deal is not up for another year. There may not be as many choice time slots left. Both conferences, however, would be smart to move some of their better games to Thursday and Friday nights, where there’s less competition and fewer power leagues willing to do so.

Before last season, Kenny Pickett would’ve been a late-round draft pick at best. He turned things around big time his final year of college ball to become a first-round pick. Can you think of any candidates this year who could find similar success, going from nobody to superstar seemingly overnight? — Neil S., Pittsburgh, PA

That’s a tough one. You rarely see the Joe Burrows or Kenny Picketts coming.

But NC State’s Devin Leary might fit the bill. Injuries limited him early in his career, and while he put up big numbers last season (3,433 yards, 35 touchdowns, five interceptions), he’s not very well known outside the ACC. I could see him getting the Pickett treatment if he leads the Wolfpackpreseason No. 13 in the coaches poll — to their long-awaited breakout season.

Washington State’s Cam Ward may be your best bet for the Burrow-type transfer who takes people by storm. He comes from FCS Incarnate Word, where he threw for 4,648 yards, 47 TDs and 10 INTs for a playoff team last season. Notably, his head coach there, Mike Leach protégé Eric Morris, is now Washington State’s offensive coordinator. I’d expect him to put up big number in Pullman, though recent WSU QB history suggests his best way to get noticed is to grow a mustache.

And speaking of Leach, I’d almost count on a huge season from Mississippi State’s Will Rogers, because that’s what Leach QBs do once they’re into their third year as starter in that system. All of his stats improved from 2020 (69.1 percent completions, 5.7 YPA, 11 TDs, 7 INTs) to 2021 (73.9 percent, 6.9 YPA, 36 TDs, 9 INTs) and should do so again. Of course, he could throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns, and Mississippi State may still finish fifth in the SEC West.

Going into this season, Ohio State may have the best player in the sport at QB (CJ Stroud), RB (TreVeyon Henderson) and WR (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), depending on how you rank Stroud and Bryce Young. Has any school ever had the best player at all three offensive skill positions at the same time? Where does that trio rank in history? — Bradley S., Lewis Center, OH

I know we’ve all tried to wipe the awful 2020 season from our collective memory, but Alabama did have a Heisman-winning receiver (DeVonta Smith), the second-highest Heisman QB (Mac Jones) and highest-finishing Heisman running back (Najee Harris). My guess is that’s as close as anyone’s ever going to come to that sort of trifecta. Because forget having the best player at all three positions on the same team; what are the chances of having a season with a definitive “best” player at all three positions, regardless of team?

I went leafing back through previous seasons’ All-America teams, and I could only find one time this century I would have felt confident naming a “best” at each position. It was 2014, when the three Heisman finalists were a QB (Marcus Mariota), RB (Melvin Gordon) and WR (Amari Cooper). In every other season there was always room for debate with at least one of those positions.

So to mimic that, Stroud, Henderson and Smith-Njigba would have to finish 1-2-3 in the Heisman, and the next guy would have to be a distant fourth. I fail to see how that’s possible for three guys from the same offense. In particular, the notion that Henderson will blow every other running back out of the water feels like a stretch. The guy is certainly a highlight machine, but as a freshman he had two 100-yard rushing games against Power 5 opponents. I’m sure he’ll take a sophomore leap, but will he truly distance himself from the likes of Texas’ Bijan Robinson, Kansas State’s Deuce Vaughn and Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen?

Maybe it’s because the 2019 Joe Burrow LSU machine was just a year earlier, or maybe because 2020 did not feel like a real season, but take a minute to appreciate the rarity of that Jones-Smith-Harris Alabama offense. The Tide averaged 49 points a game against a schedule that consisted of 13 Power 5 opponents. Jones had a 77.4 completion percentage, and threw for 4,500 yards, 41 TDs and 4 INTs. Smith caught 117 passes for 1,856 yards and 23 TDs. And Harris had 1,891 yards from scrimmage and scored 30 TDs.

If Ohio State’s trio can somehow replicate that, they’re probably winning the national title.

Which MAC team will be pulling off a major upset this season, instead of merely collecting their hard-earned $1 million from a Power 5 school (recall that Western Michigan should be ACC Champs). — Tom B., Princeton, NJ

I’d consider it a major letdown for #MACtion if there’s only one.

Give me Kent State at Washington, Miami of Ohio at Northwestern (this one’s happened before) and NIU vs. Vanderbilt.

If Larry Scott’s Pac-16 had gone through in 2010, what would college football look like today? — Johnmark S.

Great question.

Say what you will about Scott (and I’ve said plenty of critical things), he was a decade ahead of his time with that one. Had it gone through, it likely would have accelerated the consolidation of big brands we’re seeing now. Even without getting Oklahoma and Texas, the Pac-12 in 2012 briefly pulled ahead of the Big Ten and SEC in annual TV revenue. At 16, it would have eclipsed them by a considerable margin. And there’s no way then-commissioners Jim Delany and Mike Slive would have sat back and let that happen.

The sitting target in that scenario would have been the ACC, whose schools did not sign a Grant of Rights for the first time until 2013. The SEC would have gone out and grabbed Florida State, Miami and Clemson (though Clemson was not as obvious then as it is now). The Big Ten probably still takes Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland. But with the West Coast schools off the table (we’ll circle back to that in a second), it probably makes a stronger Eastern push. Possibly Pitt and Syracuse go there instead of the ACC, and of course, Delany always coveted his alma mater North Carolina. Also, if the ACC got blown to bits, then Notre Dame, at the very least, would have become a partial Big Ten member instead.

In that scenario, there would have been four or five Big 12 and six or seven ACC schools left behind. Likely the remnants of the ACC and old Big East/future AAC would have merged or absorbed one another. Unclear about Kansas/Kansas State/Iowa State, etc. The old Big East would have nabbed Kansas for basketball in a heartbeat. The others may be in the Mountain West. Or perhaps Baylor and friends would have stuck together and added TCU, Utah and Boise State.

Now, what I can’t possibly say is, had the Pac-16 also entered into a 12-year contract, would Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA still be trying to get to the Big Ten and/or SEC today? Would that conference still have fallen so far behind, or would the presence of Texas in particular have helped the Pac-16 Network get on DirecTV and make a lot more money than the actual Pac-12 Network did?

Personally, I still have a hard time imagining Texas ever would have gone along with punting on Longhorn Network in the first place.

Notre Dame beats Ohio State to start the year. What are the program ramifications on both sides? — Adam Z.

Oh, it’s going to be a vintage overreaction game either way, but an Irish upset would certainly make for more interesting subplots. Here’s where we’d likely stand:

  • National media: Wake up the echoes — Notre Dame is a national championship contender once more.
  • Local media: Marcus Freeman shows why he’s a better coach than Brian Kelly.
  • Notre Dame message boards: Marcus Freeman is the new Nick Saban.
  • National media: Are we really sure Ryan Day is that great a coach? He’s been trending in the wrong direction the longer he gets from Urban Meyer.
  • Local media: Tough one for the Buckeyes, but they can still win the Big Ten.
  • Ohio State message boards: Fire Ryan Day and his entire staff NOW.

Stew, please explain how your reaction here. The news about the Big Ten being on Fox, CBS and NBC in the first three TV windows has no impact on the Pac-12 After Dark window, and yet you once again ignored the Big 12 while propping up the Pac-12. Why is your commentary always centered around boosting the Pac-12 and ignoring the Big 12? — Louis S.

Isn’t it fairly obvious? I hate the entire Big 12 and love the entire Pac-12.

A Week Zero matchup in a foreign country sounds cool in theory, but I can’t imagine most neutral observers are particularly excited to watch Nebraska take on Northwestern in Dublin for any reason other than it signaling the return of college football season. If you could have any two programs face off to open up the season in any foreign venue, what are some matchups you’d want to see and where would you want to see them played? — Joseph D., Los Angeles

I would very much want it to be two SEC schools, mostly because I want the foreign country to experience SEC fans in the flesh. Which schools match with which locations is not as important, but here are a few possibilities.

LSU vs. Florida in Tokyo. There was an annual college football game in Tokyo from 1977-93, including Notre Dame-Miami in 1979, Barry Sanders’ last game of his Heisman season in 1988 and David Klinger throwing for a then-record 714 yards against Arizona State in 1990. But no SEC team ever played there. We need to change that.

LSU needs to be one of the teams, so that LSU fans can introduce locals to gumbo, jambalaya and the Tiger Bait chant. I picked Florida somewhat randomly, though come to think of it: Are Tokyo residents familiar with jorts?

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State in London. I assume it would be at Wembley, but boy, I’d really love it if they could retrofit Wimbledon into a football field. The thought of that famously quiet and polite crowd being overtaken by drunken State fans with cowbells would be pure delight.

Alabama vs. Auburn in Paris. This one’s fresh in my head. When you drive into the city from the airport you pass right by Stade de France, the 80,000-seat marvel that hosted this year’s Champions League final (admittedly, not well). Let’s cram a bunch of French soccer fans together with Iron Bowl-intensity level Alabama and Auburn fans. Nothing could possibly go wrong.

Is there a specific reason that you keep acting like Oklahoma is the only team in the country to lose good players? Why do you continue to ignore that they brought in a bunch of good players? Also, USC has no defense to speak of and won four games last year, yet you keep giving them a ton of credit. Explain. — Scott C.

Isn’t it fairly obvious? Clearly, I hate Oklahoma and love USC.

What fanbase gives you the most crap in the comment section? — Jacob W.

See above.

(Photo: Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)

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