No team has looked better than Golden State through the opening stages of the NBA Playoffs. With a chance to put its first-round series against Denver to bed in the form of a dominant sweep, our NBA betting picks are expecting more of the same.
The playoff waters have proven too deep for the Denver Nuggets who now face a dreadful 0-3 series hole to the Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors — who enter tonight's matchup as 4-point road favorites — have returned to title-contending form and can put a stamp on a dominant Round 1 series with another win at Ball Arena tonight.
Will Golden State complete the first-round sweep or can the Nuggets dig deep to extend their season? Read our NBA picks and predictions below to find out.
Warriors vs Nuggets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Books opened with the Nuggets as 3.5-point home dogs, a line that has since shifted to Warriors -4.5 at the time of writing, although some books are offering Golden State at -4. Meanwhile, the opening total of 224.5 has mostly stood pat across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Warriors vs Nuggets predictions
Predictions made on 4/24/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Nuggets game info
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Warriors vs Nuggets series odds
Warriors: -20,000
Nuggets: +5,000
Warriors vs Nuggets betting preview
Key injuries
Warriors: James Wiseman C (Out).
Nuggets: Jamal Murray G (Out), Michael Porter Jr. F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Golden State is 3-0 ATS in this series and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with Denver. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Nuggets.
Warriors vs Nuggets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Golden State's current form has officially put the league on notice. Through three first-round games, the Warriors have torched Denver's defense to the tune of a 127.4 offensive rating — that's best in the playoffs by a wide margin (76ers, 120.4).
While Steph Curry has been effective in his glorified sixth-man role (25.7 ppg in 25.1 mpg), Jordan Poole has played headliner to the deadly scoring trio of Curry, Poole, and Klay Thompson (76.4 combined ppg). Making an all-time playoff entrance, the 22-year-old guard is averaging 28.7 points on absurd 67/59/81 shooting splits. Real video game stuff.
While slowing down this Warriors team in current scorching form is a tall task for any defense, the problem is made worse by Denver's inability to keep up on offense.
Without Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, Denver simply lacks the scoring depth needed to keep up with Golden State — especially with the emergence of Jordan Poole. Nikola Jokic notwithstanding, one-off inconsistent performances from guys like Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, or Monte Morris won't be enough.
While regression to the Warriors' offense is inevitable, it may not matter for today's tilt. Denver looks depleted on both ends of the floor and Golden State's late Game-3 barrage in an otherwise tight game may have been the final blow.
Aside from playing in their own gym, we haven't seen anything else from the Nuggets that would suggest a last stand performance from them in Game 4.
Denver will fight, but in no case will it be enough. Lay the number.
Prediction: Warriors -4 (-110 at WilliamHill)
Covers NBA betting analysis
Over/Under analysis
In line with Golden State's offensive prowess through three games, the Over is also 3-0.
These squads have played to three totals in the low 220s, and have toppled each by an average of 8.2 points per game, thanks in large part to Golden State's scoring totals of 118, 126, and 123.
Today's 224.5-point total is a couple of points higher, but don't let that deter you from going back to the well.
Golden State aside, Denver has done more than enough to help push these games Over the total. After scoring just 107 and 106 in Golden State, Denver upped that to 113 in its return to Ball Arena on much better shooting splits (50/42/82). Expect a similar scoring output today with their season on the line.
Golden State, on the other hand, should have no problem getting back to the 115-120 mark against a defense it's torched all series long, even away from home (55% shooting, 45% from deep in Game 3).
Backing the Under today is in large part a fade against that rolling Warriors offense. Do so at your own risk.
Prediction: Over 224.5 (-118 at bet365)
Best bet
This playoff stomping shouldn't overshadow what was an incredible MVP campaign from Nikola Jokic, but within the confines of this first-round matchup, this Nuggets team doesn't stack up.
Barring a superhero performance from Jokic in Game 4, the Warriors will take care of business and put this series to bed.
Pick: Warriors -4 (-110 at WilliamHill)
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