It is the nature of an overreaction column that you have to correct yourself from week to week. You might recall last week, one of our declarations was that "the Bengals are AFC North favorites," and I said it was not an overreaction, because they'd just waxed the Ravens to move into a first-place tie in the division.
Then came Week 8, and -- sorry, Bengals fans -- we need to take the column in the opposite direction. Just the way overreactions work. Not much I can do about it. Here we go:
The Bengals are pretenders, not contenders
The no-contest most inexcusable loss of the day was Cincinnati's 34-31 defeat to a Jets team that was starting its backup quarterback and without its best receiver. A week after completely throttling Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to become the week's fresh-contender media darling, the Bengals gave up 34 points to a team that hadn't scored 30 in a game since Week 12 of 2019.
They blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead to a team that was 0-38 over the past five seasons when trailing in the fourth quarter. They gave up 405 passing yards to Mike White, who was making his first career start. The only quarterback in NFL history to throw for more yards in his first start was Cam Newton, who threw for 422 in his 2011 debut. It was the first 400-yard passing game by a Jet since Vinny Testaverde in 2000.
The loss dropped Cincinnati a half-game behind idle Baltimore (and only a half-game ahead of Pittsburgh) in the AFC North. There was nothing good about this performance.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Joe Burrow has been so good so far that you're far less shocked about the escape-job touchdown pass he threw to put his team up 11 points with 7:29 to go than the interception he threw three minutes later. But that interception was the killer, as it happened 14 yards from the Bengals' own goal line and the Jets punched it in for a go-ahead touchdown. Burrow will beat himself up over that, but this was a total system failure.
The vaunted Cincinnati defense didn't look right from the outset, as White went right down the field on them for a touchdown on the opening drive. The interception by Burrow could not have been timed worse. The penalty on the play that would have forced a punt and let Burrow have a chance with a couple of minutes to go was the kind of thing the Bengals always used to do -- not the act of this year's this-time-it's-different bunch. All ugly.
But I have to say the larger body of work for Cincinnati this season is positive, and every team is allowed a stinker. The Packers got waxed by the Saints in Week 1, remember? Give me another couple of weeks of lousy games and I'll back off the Bengals. But their 2021 résumé still says contender more than it says pretender, and Burrow strikes me as the kind of guy who can use this for fuel.
The Browns' offense is broken
Sunday's 15-10 loss to the Steelers was the fourth game this season (and third in a row) in which the Browns have failed to score more than 17 points. The fact that they've won two of those four games is the only thing keeping their season afloat. Baker Mayfield is playing hurt. Kareem Hunt isn't playing at all. Odell Beckham Jr. ... well, the box score says he has been playing, but you wouldn't know it to watch the games. (I kid, of course -- I know Beckham's playing hurt, too). Right tackle Jack Conklin left the game because of an injury.
And yes, the Steelers' defense is good. But the Browns' offense hasn't looked right since that 47-42 loss to the Chargers in Week 5, and that was supposed to be the side of the ball on which they expected to be elite.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION When the offensive line is healthy, Cleveland's run game looks fine. Sunday wasn't its best day, but the Steelers don't make life easy on opposing run games. The main problem is that the passing offense looks like a bunch of checking down to tight ends, playing field position and asking the defense to hold 'em. Not sure how that's sustainable over a 17-week season, especially now that Cleveland is in solo last place in a tough-looking AFC North.
Kevin Stefanski and his staff are good enough coaches to figure something out. The short-handed victory over Denver in Week 7 was impressive, and the Browns almost pulled this one off in spite of their offense. But whether it's sitting Mayfield until he's healthy, finding ways to get the wide receiver more involved or just adjusting something scheme-wise, they have to do something. This doesn't look like a problem that's going to fix itself.
Dolphins coach Brian Flores is on the hot seat
The Browns are getting a lot of attention in the "most disappointing team of the year" conversation, and that's fair. They won 11 games last season and had high hopes. But to me, the Dolphins are the most disappointing team -- in large part because they've been much, much worse than the Browns have.
Sunday's 26-11 loss in Buffalo was Miami's seventh in a row following its one-point victory over New England in Week 1. The Dolphins are tied with Houston for the worst record in the AFC, and only the winless Lions have a worse record in the entire league.
A team that was supposed to be on the ascent is instead moving backward, and suddenly the issue of whether the Dolphins are truly committed to the quarterback they picked fifth overall last year isn't even the biggest story of their already-lost season.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Flores' Miami tenure has shown promise, sure, but it has also left a trail of fired assistant coaches, about-faces on player-acquisition decisions and a general inability to stick to the plan.
His players seem to believe in him, and I don't think Dolphins ownership is going to want to give up on a coach in whom they believed so strongly just a couple of months ago. But if the Dolphins keep losing and losing, sure, it's absolutely possible we add Miami to the list of potentially available head-coaching jobs along with Chicago, Denver, Jacksonville and a few others.
The Saints are a real NFC contender
The Saints aren't going to celebrate the fact that they're now 3-1 against Tom Brady's Buccaneers, because the "1" was a playoff loss and the "3" were all regular-season wins. Nevertheless, Sunday's 36-27 victory over the Bucs was incredibly impressive, considering that starting quarterback Jameis Winston left with a "significant" knee injury and the Saints were already badly undermanned on offense.
The win improved the Saints' record to 5-2, including victories over the first-place Bucs and the first-place Packers. They sit one half-game behind the Bucs in the NFC South.
0:41
P.J. Williams gets the huge pick-six with under two minutes remaining securing the Saints' win.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Sure, the Saints would have the tiebreaker over the Packers (and, for now, the Bucs) when it comes to playoff seeding. But you have to get in the tie to use the tiebreaker. Their schedule still includes road trips to Tampa and Tennessee, and home games against the Bills and Cowboys -- not a rush of pushovers by any means.
If Winston truly is out for an extended period of time -- and if Taysom Hill continues to need time in his recovery from a concussion -- it's hard to see Trevor Siemian keeping them in contention against the better teams. You have to love the way they're playing on defense (they were ranked fourth on that side of the ball by ESPN's Football Power Index entering Sunday's action), but the offense was already very limited, and sliding down the depth chart at quarterback isn't going to help that.
The Raiders are the AFC West favorites
The 5-2 Raiders won without playing this week, as the Chargers dropped a surprise home game to the Patriots to drop to 4-4. The Broncos won to improve to 4-4, but that was their first win since September and it came against woebegone Washington.
The 3-4 Chiefs are on Monday Night Football this week against the Giants -- a game they should win, but they aren't exactly locked in at the moment. Meanwhile, the Raiders are 2-0 since coach Jon Gruden's resignation and seem to enjoy playing for interim coach Rich Bisaccia. Vegas' offense is humming, and it gets a visit to the Giants next week coming off the bye before it faces Kansas City in Week 10.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Could the Raiders win this topsy-turvy division? Of course. But it's premature to label them "favorites." They already lost once to the Chargers, for one thing, so they have an uphill tiebreaker battle there. And this is absolutely a team that has faded in the second half of recent seasons after hot starts. It's obviously not completely fair to hold the sins of past Raider teams against this one, but it's largely the same group and has to prove it can finish.
I still think the Chiefs will be heard from before this is all over, and the Chargers have too much talent not to pull out of their current lull. I'll put the Raiders in strong contention in a tough division, but I'm not yet ready to call them the team to beat.
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