2021 NFL expert predictions, odds and spreads: Picks for Week 12, including Bucs at Colts and Rams at Packers - The Athletic

What’s a week in the NFL without a few big upsets? The 2021 season has quickly become the year of the underdog and the under; at least, that’s how games have gone recently. Except last week came with some really surprising results. Another seven dogs covered last week with five winning outright, including the Texans over the AFC-leading Titans and Indianapolis thrashing Buffalo at home. In the NFC, Detroit continues to fight (against the spread, more importantly) while Arizona again survived without Kyler Murray.

Take a look at some of the top betting data from Week 11 here:

Underdogs went 7-8 last week, the first time in four weeks they’ve finished below .500. Give these dogs credit for doing more than just covering; Underdogs continue to wreak havoc on bettors and books alike. Last week, five dogs won outright with an average margin of victory at 10.8 points per game. We’re up to 66 outright underdog victories through 11 weeks, so pick your ‘locks’ accordingly.

Houston was the heaviest underdog to win outright last week, topping the AFC-leading Titans 22-13 after closing as 10-point underdogs. Tyrod Taylor ran for two touchdowns, and the Texans’ defense intercepted Ryan Tannehill four times to pull the upset. The Colts also won outright as a 7-point underdog.

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