In making last week's picks, I went with a lot of favorites. That was a good thing straight up as I went a decent 10-6.
The bad news was my against-the-spread record was a terrifying 6-10.
That's pathetic. I should have learned my lesson. I hate picking a lot of favorites, but guess what?
I am leaning that way again.
Let's hope it evens out. The one underdog I really like a lot this week is the Buffalo Bills against the New England Patriots. I don't think they will win the game – they could – but I think they keep it close.
Let's hope for a better record this week ATS and straight up. How about 11-5 for both?
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
The Eagles aren't playing well through a ton of injuries, and this is a tough challenge on a short week. The Green Bay offense hasn't looked crisp yet, but this is the game where it will. Aaron Rodgers finally has that big game. He lights up the Eagles.
Pick: Packers 30, Eagles 20
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-4)
The Titans looked bad last time out in their loss to the Jaguars, but they've had time to rest. Even so, the Falcons have to get it going and they are the better team. Losing Keanu Neal will hurt the defense, but not against this offense. Falcons win it.
Pick: Falcons 26, Titans 17
Cleveland Browns (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
This is almost a must-win for the Browns. They would fall to 1-3 with a loss here and be in a big hole in the division. They haven't looked crisp at all on offense, while the Ravens have with Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore defense hasn't been the same, but I think it shows up here and Jackson has another good game but it's tight.
Pick: Ravens 23, Browns 20
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)
This is a game with two 3-0 teams. Did I just write that? Yes, the Bills are undefeated as they ready to play the Patriots. They are good on defense, but face their biggest challenge here. I think they can handle it. Can Josh Allen handle the Patriots defense? I think he does just fine, but in the end the Patriots will win a close one.
Pick: Patriots 23, Bills 21
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Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Detroit Lions
This is a game between two undefeated teams as well. The Lions do have a tie, but they are off to a good start. The Chiefs have already won two road games, so they can handle the road. Their players will look even faster here in this one. The Chiefs roll up another big number with Patrick Mahomes.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Lions 24
Carolina Panthers (+4.5) at Houston Texans
The Panthers are playing consecutive road games and Kyle Allen will again be the starter at quarterback. They sacked Kyler Murray eight times last week and I would expect that front to get after Deshaun Watson here as well. Carolina will keep it close, but the Texans win it.
Pick: Texans 21, Panthers 20
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
The Raiders are on the road again after a terrible showing last week at Minnesota. The Colts were impressive in beating the Falcons as Jacoby Brissett is getting better by the week. The Oakland defense has issues, so look for a Colts romp here.
Pick: Colts 29, Raiders 17
Los Angeles Chargers (-16) at Miami Dolphins
This is a long trip for the Chargers for an early game. That's always challenging. This week it won't be. The Dolphins are terrible. Yes, they showed some fight last week, but they are way undermanned. Chargers win this easily.
Pick: Chargers 31, Dolphins 10
Washington Redskins (+3) at New York Giants
Can Daniel Jones build on his first start in a division game? He was impressive against Tampa Bay, and he gets the Redskins on a short week. The Giants defense has issues, though, which should make this a shootout. Look for a lot of points as the Giants take it.
Pick: Giants 31, Redskins 30
Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks are coming off a bad home loss to the Saints. But they should rebound here. The Arizona defense is bad and Russell Wilson will have a big day throwing it. This will be ugly.
Pick: Seahawks 33, Cardinals 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-10)
The Rams are 3-0 and playing well on both sides of the ball, while the Bucs are coming off a loss and face a tough road trip here. Look for Jared Goff to light up the Bucs secondary much like Daniel Jones did last week. Rams easy.
Pick: Rams 35, Bucs 17
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Chicago Bears
Is this a big game? Of course it is. That's not good news for the Vikings and Kirk Cousins. The Bears are playing on a short week, but that defense will shut down Cousins. The Bears won't get much on offense either, but they will win a tight one.
Pick: Bears 17, Vikings 16
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Denver Broncos
Lost in Gardner Minshew-mania is how impressive the Jaguars front was last week against the Titans in recording nine sacks. This is a Denver offensive line that isn't very good. Look for that front to get all over Joe Flacco and Minshew will play well. Jaguars will win a tough road game.
Pick: Jaguars 20, Broncos 13
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
The Cowboys are rolling right now, but this is a big step up in competition at a tough place to play. The Saints got a big road victory last week against the Seahawks with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. But this time, even at home, I think the Cowboys are too good right now. Dak Prescott comes up big again.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Saints 23
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
What a dog of a game we have on Monday night. Both teams are 0-3 and the Steelers are starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback for Ben Roethlisberger. Somebody has to win, right? I'll go with the home team and Rudolph gets his first NFL victory as a starter.
Pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 20
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