Red Sox-Astros ALCS Preview, Prediction: Can Boston Win Clash Of Titans?

If you want be the best, you have to beat the best.

That’s where the Boston Red Sox now find themselves.

Despite winning 108 games during the regular season, the Red Sox faced doubts entering their American League Division Series matchup with the rival New York Yankees.

Boston momentarily silenced its doubters by pushing the Yankees aside in relatively demanding fashion to set up an AL title bout with the defending World Series champion Houston Astros.

The Astros, who eliminated Boston in last year’s ALDS, brushed aside the Cleveland Indians in three games.

Before the Red Sox and Astros kick off their best-of-seven series, let’s look at how the two teams matchup.

STARTING PITCHING
Boston
The Red Sox’s starting rotation performed admirably in the ALDS against the Yankees, with three of the four starters going at least five innings while allowing two earned runs or less.

All the questions surrounding ace Chris Sale, who will get the nod in Game 1, were erased when he came out of the chute firing in Game 1 against the Yankees, his fastball registering in the mid-90s all night long. Sale tossed 5 1/3 innings, allowing two runs on five hits while striking out eight. The left-hander also tossed a 1-2-3 eighth inning during Boston’s series-clinching win in Game 4 at Yankee Stadium.

Manager Alex Cora announced Wednesday that David Price, despite his disastrous start in Game 2 against the Yankees, will get the ball in Game 2 against the Astros. The left-hander fell to 0-9 in his postseason career as a starter after the Yankees got to him for three runs in 1 2/3 innings in Boston’s Game 2 ALDS loss. Price has good numbers against the Astros this season, though, going 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts. In those two starts combined, Price notched 17 strikeouts, with 10 coming Sept. 7 at Fenway Park.

With Price going in Game 2, that likely means that Cora will go with right-hander Nathan Eovaldi in Game 3 at Minute Maid Park. Eovaldi has been much better at home this season (4-1, 2.06 ERA) than on the road (2-6, 5.14 ERA), but Cora explained that he feels more comfortable with Price pitching at Fenway Park rather than MMP. After Eovaldi shut down the Yankees at Yankee Stadium in Game 3 of the ALDS, the Red Sox manager has all the reason to have confidence in the righty.

If Eovaldi goes in Game 3, Rick Porcello will start Game 4. The 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner was great in the ALDS, as he rescued the Sox’s bullpen in Game 1 and pitched five strong innings in Game 4 at Yankee Stadium, allowing just one run on five hits.

Houston
The Astros’ starting rotation, and staff in general, has been dominant all season.

Houston led the league in run prevention, allowing around 3.3 runs per game. The Los Angeles Dodgers came in second at around 3.76. The Astros also led the MLB in starters ERA and FIP.

Justin Verlander will get the ball in Game 1 for Houston. The veteran right-hander faced the Red Sox just once this season, allowing three runs in six innings while earning a no-decision. Verlander allowed three runs in 8 2/3 innings in Houston’s ALDS series victory over Boston last season. He recorded a career-high 290 strikeouts this season and has been a postseason horse over his career, going 12-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 23 appearances, 22 of which were starts.

It doesn’t get any easier for Boston in Game 2, as hard-throwing right-hander Gerrit Cole will get the start. Cole was dominant in his ALDS Game 2 start against the Indians, allowing one run on three hits while striking out 12 in seven innings. Cole allowed five earned runs while striking out 15 in 13 innings against Boston this season.

Dallas Keuchel is expected to start Game 3 back in Houston. The 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner was hit hard in his only start versus the Sox this season, giving up five runs on nine hits in six innings. Keuchel was serviceable in his Game 3 start against the Indians, allowing two runs in five innings.

Advantage: Houston

BULLPEN
Boston
The Red Sox’s oft-criticized pen got the job done in the ALDS against the Yankees. After a shaky Game 1 that saw Porcello make an emergency entrance to calm things down, Boston’s bullpen did enough to keep New York’s vaunted offense at bay for the remainder of the series. All in all, the Sox’s pen allowed seven runs in 17 innings during the ALDS. Craig Kimbrel will have to be better if Boston plans to advance. The Red Sox closer had a shaky showing against the Yankees, giving up three runs during his two appearances. Brandon Workman and Eduardo Rodriguez were the only other relievers to allow a run in the series.

Much like their starting rotation, Houston’s bullpen is loaded. The Astros’ pen led the majors in bullpen ERA and FIP, just like their rotation. Manager A.J. Hinch has a number of weapons at his disposable, as was evident by the number of quality relievers (Brad Peacock, Hector Rondon, Joe Smith and Chris Devenski) who were left off the ALDS roster. If Houston’s starters get the ball to Ryan Pressly, Lance McCullers Jr. and Roberto Osuna with the lead, it’s usually game over.

Advantage: Houston

OFFENSE
Boston
Despite the above categories going in Houston’s favor, the Red Sox’s offense should match up relatively well against the right-handed arms of the Astros. The Red Sox feasted on right-handed pitching this season, leading the AL with an .817 OPS against right-handers this season. It, of course, is bad news that Boston probably will have to face Verlander and Cole each twice if the Sox want to win the series, but Boston has the bats to bludgeon the Astros into submission. The Red Sox led the MLB in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. J.D. Martinez could be the key to the series, as Houston’s staff silenced him (.192/.258/.423 vs. Houston) this season.

Houston
Just as the Red Sox crush righties, the Astros hammer lefties. Houston led the AL with an .803 OPS against left-handers while it posted the ninth best OPS against right-handers. Those numbers would appear to present a problem for both Sale and Price who the Astros could face four times in the seven-game series. Jose Altuve (8-for-24) and George Springer (5-for-14) have had good career success against Sale, while Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel also were successful against the Sox ace in last year’s ALDS.

Advantage: Boston

Prediction
Houston in 6
The Red Sox proved many of their doubters wrong when they rolled over the Yankees in the ALDS, but Houston is a much different animal. The Astros’ lineup has few holes in it and should be able to get to the Red Sox’s bullpen in a way the Yankees couldn’t. Couple that with seeing Verlander and Cole four times in a seven-game series and it’s hard to see Boston sending the defending champs packing.

Thumbnail photo via Adam Hunger/USA TODAY Sports Images

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