
If you missed the memo that was sent out about Trevor Bauer becoming the heir apparent to Andrew Miller for the Indians this postseason, it went like this: When there were crucial innings to pitch in the ALDS — several at a time, possibly — it was going to be Bauer’s gig, not Miller’s.
It didn’t go well.
It made sense at the time, though. Bauer was a whirling dervish of outs and whiffs all season, and he has a famously elastic arm. Miller has struggled with injuries all year, from his knee to his hamstring to his shoulder. The former was a good bet; the latter wasn’t the same bullpen workhorse that he had been.
The Indians played it right, in other words, but they didn’t have the same arsenal. They didn’t have their magic reliever, their clothespin-shaped warrior. Andrew Miller faced five batters this postseason, and he retired one of them. Bauer faced 20 batters, and 40 percent of them reached base. It was a fine gambit for a team trying to make do, but it didn’t work.
The Astros absolutely flattened the Indians by acting like the Astros. They were the team we’ve gotten used to. There were no tricks, no misdirections, no aces up the sleeve. They were simply the Astros, just better.
To which we should respond, oh. Oh, cool. The Astros are better than ever. This is definitely not frightening at all. This is definitely not like the raptors figuring out a Rubik’s Cube in Jurassic Park 5, and everything is fine.
It’s the normalcy that should have everyone else worried. This Astros team didn’t need to use Charlie Morton for four innings of relief in a clincher. They didn’t need Lance McCullers, Jr. to throw 24 straight curveballs to win. They used starting pitchers, and those starting pitchers dominated. They trusted their regular hitters to take a lead, and they did. They would let the bullpen hold that lead, which they did. There were no surprise permutations, no “Guess what! Jeff Francoeur is on the postseason roster*! *we signed him on Aug. 31 when you weren’t looking.” The Astros are the Astros we expected, and it’s terrifying.
Think about the plan the Astros had for this season:
- Have Justin Verlander dominate
- Unlock Gerrit Cole’s full potential
- Enjoy unprecedented rotation depth
- Reach October without a wheezing, gasping bullpen
- Produce at least one MVP candidate out of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, or George Springer
- Employ 73 different gigantic, bald lumberjack-looking dudes who look like a dad that answers the door while his daughter is still getting ready
Only one of those plans was scuttled — the one about the MVP candidate. Except it turns out that Alex Bregman is that candidate, and it’s not like the other three hitters are any worse. Sure, their numbers were down, and all of Correa, Altuve, and Springer spent time on the DL this year, but are you seriously taking the under on their numbers for 2018? Just ask the questions to yourself out loud.
Correa is a 738 OPS guy now: True or false?
Springer is a 780 OPS guy now: True or false?
The days of Altuve hitting .330 or better are over: True or false?
Gotta go false on all of them, and other than the Altuve one (just because batting average is so fickle), I don’t think anything here is controversial. Of course Correa is much better than his 2018 season so far. Of course Springer is at least a little better. And just because they put up those numbers in the regular season, that doesn’t mean they aren’t those players right now.
Which is to say: The Astros might be even better than a 103-win team. They might be better than the 109-53 team that their Pythagorean win-loss record suggested. It’s not that hard to imagine the 2018 Astros, but with a much scarier offense; we might be watching it right now.
Of course, this is the postseason, where small samples rule and narratives are created by writers on deadline, so it’s entirely possible that the Yankees or Red Sox will outscore the Astros 34-8 in a five-game series. What we think players like Correa or Verlander will do in a short series is often at odds with what they’ll actually do.
I don’t think so, though. I really don’t think so.
The good news for us — and the bad news for the Astros — is that they’re guaranteed to face another 100-win team in the ALCS. The last time two 100-win teams met in the postseason, before 2018? Why, you’ll have to go all the way back to the year 2017, with the Astros and Dodgers in the World Series.
Before that, though, you had to go back to 1977. Which is to say that 100-win teams don’t usually bonk heads in the postseason. So if you’re thinking the Astros are a secret juggernaut that probably deserved to win 108 games, that’s fine. Just note that they might meet up with the Red Sox, who actually won 108 games. Or the Yankees, who almost certainly could have. Don’t take this for a prediction that the Astros are going to make the World Series again, let alone win it.
But you wouldn’t be surprised. None of us would. The Astros have a deeper, more rested bullpen than they did last year. They have a deeper rotation than last year. And if you’re counting a weaponized Bregman as an addition to a lineup that’s mostly the same, they have an even better lineup.
The Indians were an excellent team with all sorts of things going right for them. They got steamrolled. In the dust cloud that followed, we noticed something even scarier: The Astros might not have peaked yet.
And, hot dang, is that a terrifying realization for anyone who wants to stop them this postseason.
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