John Elway has been evaluating quarterbacks on a case-by-case-by-case-by-case-by-"Case" basis ever since Peyton Manning's retirement in 2016, and Broncos fans have become increasingly perturbed by the Hall of Famer's struggle to effectively address the position he played so well.
It's already worth wondering if Elway will have to case the land again next spring, even if it's way too early to deem Case Keenum's tenure an open and shut ... case. But early returns? Not great.
Denver is off to a 2-2 start after beating two teams it should (Seattle, Oakland) before losing to two that appear superior (Baltimore, Kansas City). But the Broncos were in position Monday night to upset the high-flying Chiefs ... had Keenum merely hit wide-open Demaryius Thomas, who was streaking down the boundary, for what looked like an easy 28-yard go-ahead TD with 16 seconds remaining.
But Keenum overthrew Thomas, the type of play a quarterback like him — one who doesn't have eye-popping physical tools to make many things happen on his own — can't afford to miss in a game Denver would ultimately lose 27-23.
"There’s a few, especially those type of plays that I’ll lose a little sleep over," Keenum said, "thinking about it, laying at night in bed. It’s a tough one. It stings.”
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It probably stings more for Broncos fans, wondering if Elway should have mounted a 98-yard drive to get Kirk Cousins rather than pivoting to Keenum, who was lured by a far more reasonable two-year, $36 million offer that costs $10 million less annually than Cousins' pact in Minnesota. (Yet Cousins is playing much better right now, so on some level, you get what you pay for.)
The decision to opt for Keenum doesn't end the second guessing of Elway, who could have also easily made a move to get Sam Darnold in the draft or had his choice of Josh Allen, Josh Rosen or Lamar Jackson. Any could have benefited from a redshirt year (or at least redshirt weeks) behind Keenum.
And let's be fair to Keenum, a good guy who's navigating a new city, playbook and locker room. He's also dealing with hugely outsized expectations after a career year for the Vikings, a team Keenum led to the NFC title game last season while posting personal bests in wins (11), completion rate (67.6 percent) passing yards (3,547), touchdown throws (22) and QB rating (98.3) — all of those figures multiple standard deviations away from the undrafted journeyman's career norms.
Now Keenum's regressing to the mean, hitting on 61.7 percent of his attempts and posting a passer rating of 72.1, which ranks 31st among qualifying NFL QBs. He's thrown an interception every week (for a total of six) and hasn't connected on a TD pass since firing three in Week 1.
There's still time to turn it around. Keenum is backed by a very good defense, a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber receivers and a better-than-expected run game, just as he was in Minnesota — where he also got off to an uneven start before helping the eventual NFC North champs reel off eight wins in a row.
But with three of the Broncos' next four games on the road — broken up by a Week 6 visit from the juggernaut L.A. Rams — it's not hard to envision this thing going south in a hurry ... followed by calls for intriguing backup Chad "Swag" Kelly ... followed by wishes to trade for Teddy Bridgewater ... followed by screams to draft Oregon's Justin Herbert or Auburn's Jarrett Stidham.
Of course, if it comes to that, Elway may have to make a case he should get another crack at turning this team around.
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Follow Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis
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