The 143rd running of the Preakness Stakes tells a familiar story.
On Saturday, a Bob Baffert-trained horse once again seeks to win the second stretch of the Triple Crown, needing to fend off fresh contenders and a messy environment in the process.
Justify didn't have much of a problem at the Kentucky Derby from the seventh post and drew the same slot at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.
Baffert's star pupil blazed through the slop to get a win and break a curse in the process, which has him far above the field before the race. Here's everything to know and a prediction.
Preakness Information
When: Saturday, May 19; post time at 6:20 p.m. ET
Where: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore
TV: NBC
Live Stream: NBC Sports App,
Post Positions and Odds
1. Quip: 14-1
2. Lone Sailor: 20-1
3. Sporting Chance: 40-1
4. Diamond King: 20-1
5. Good Magic: 13-4
6. Tenfold: 33-1
7. Justify: 11-25
8. Bravazo 18-1
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.
Picks for Top Horses and Jockeys
1. Justify (Jockey: Mike Smith)
There isn't much of anything capable of stopping Justify at this point.
Justify didn't just win the Kentucky Derby—down went the "Curse of Apollo" in the process, a longstanding streak of horses unable to win the race after not racing as a two-year-old.
Impressive, and a unique way of saying Justify is fresher than most major contenders hoping to take down a Triple Crown. He's also heavier than most, including American Pharoah, as Baffert isn't shy about pointing out to onlookers.
“He’s just got that big, powerful body, that big, long stride,” Baffert said, according to Childs Walker of the Baltimore Sun. “He’s so efficient. He just does it easily, and I’m sure those other horses were thinking, ‘Dude, we can’t keep up with him!’ ”
The weight and strength here saw Justify cruise through the mud at the Kentucky Derby, so the fact it has rained in Baltimore for most of the week should be a moot point.
Don't forget Mike Smith up top, owner of five triumphs in Triple Crown races. Maybe keep in mind Baffert is four-for-four with his Derby winners at the Preakness, too. The tandem here and swell of factors working in their favor make Justify the easy choice.
2. Good Magic (Jockey: Jose Ortiz)
It's up to a familiar face to take down the favorite.
Good Magic finished just a few lengths behind Justify at Churchill Downs and drew a favorable fifth post for Saturday in Baltimore, hence the notable odds heading into the event.
Likewise, jockey Jose Ortiz has some solid experience in Triple Crown races, winning the Belmont Stakes in 2017. He's also confident going into the event because he saw how the Kentucky Derby played out and sees a similar scenario Saturday.
Here's what Ortiz told reporters, according to a press release from Paulick Report:
“It's a small field and if we have a clean trip, I'm sure we could turn the tables on [Justify] on Saturday. We just have to make up 2 1/2 lengths. It's not like he beat us 10 or 20 lengths. [A wet track] is not a disadvantage for me or for my horse. We ran in the Derby and we were beaten 2 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track. Both horses like it; Justify just had a better day that day.”
Good Magic, a Chad Brown-trained colt, lost a duel with Saturday's heavy favorite. The conditions will be the same in Baltimore, but less traffic to clog the lanes could enable Good Magic to really test Justify for the full duration of the event.
3. Quip (Jockey: Florent Geroux)
Here is where things get tricky for a Triple Crown contender over the final two races.
Look at the Rodolphe Brisset-trained Quip, a colt who sat out the Kentucky Derby while specifically targeting the Preakness.
It's more dangerous than it seems for Justify, as Quip took down the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby in March before a second-place finish at the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby a month later. There's also the fact those around the colt say Quip won't have a problem out of the first gate.
“It takes all the pressure off when you know you have a good gate horse,” Brisset said, per Paulick Report. “He broke his maiden from the ‘1' hole. He's got enough tactical speed to be right up there. We'll see what happens. The main thing for me is to make sure the saddling goes all right in the paddock. He schooled perfect yesterday. We are lucky enough that the paddock at Oaklawn is pretty much the same as here. We schooled twice at Oaklawn and he ran very good there.”
Florent Geroux isn't the most established jockey compared to some of the names already mentioned, but directing a colt who can explode out of the first gate in a smaller field could make life easy for the man up top.
Fresh or not, there probably isn't enough here for Quip to place better than third. But a small field means plenty of room for Quip to make some noise.
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