Last year, Rory McIlroy posted the third-lowest score (271) in U.S. Open history, but still finished runner-up to winner Wyndham Clark. McIlroy will now head to the 2024 U.S. Open on Thursday from Pinehurst No. 2. Since his last major win in 2014, he has the most top-10s at majors (20) in the world, but no victories to show for it. At 10-1 in the latest 2024 U.S. Open odds, McIlroy only trails Scottie Scheffler in the 2024 U.S. Open field. Scheffler is the World No. 1, with McIlroy No. 3. Sandwiched in between is PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele. He's also at 10-1 among the U.S. Open 2024 contenders, as is Bryson DeChambeau, who won this major in 2020.
Two golfers who have yet to win a major follow, Viktor Hovland at 12-1 and Ludvig Aberg at 14-1. Before locking in your 2024 U.S. Open picks or Scottie Scheffler props, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.
The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including three straight Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now with the U.S. Open 2024 field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 U.S. Open predictions
One major surprise: Justin Thomas, a 35-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Thomas has a notable U.S. Open history, as he made his major debut here in 2014, tied a major round record with a score of 63 at the 2017 U.S. Open, and posted the lowest round (65) ever recorded at the major when played at Winged Foot in 2020. Thomas is a two-time major champion, so he's proven himself on this kind of stage and is coming off a strong showing last month at the PGA Championship.
Thomas finished eighth in that tournament, which ended a streak of seven straight major starts in which he finished 37th or worse. Thomas' touch with his irons and wedges should give him an advantage at Pinehurst, which has firm and fast conditions. He ranks in the top 12 in the strokes gained categories: tee-to-green (1.398), approach the green (0.697) and around-the-green (0.445). With Thomas also ranking fourth in birdie average (4.43), and playing at a course where breaking par is quite the accomplishment, he's a golf sleeper to utilize in PGA Tour bets.
The model has also examined where Scottie Scheffler finishes. Scheffler enters this event on the type of run that hasn't been seen in decades. He's the first golfer with five wins in a PGA Tour season prior to the U.S. Open since Tom Watson in 1980. One of those came last week at the Memorial, which could be a sign of momentum as well as a reason many will fade him with their 2024 U.S. Open bets. This is the 109th season of the PGA Tour, and no golfer has ever won on tour and then won the U.S. Open in back-to-back weeks.
For all of his dominance, it's easy to forget that Scheffler has only excelled at one major, the Masters. He's 0-for-14 at the other three majors and only notched top-25s in half of his six career U.S. Open starts. The two-time Masters champion will look to translate his historic success on tour to the year's third major, as his performance will arguably be the main storyline for the 2024 U.S. Open. The model just locked in its Scottie Scheffler U.S. Open picks here..
How to make 2024 U.S. Open picks
The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2024 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the U.S. Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the PGA Championship.
2024 U.S. Open odds, field
Get full 2024 U.S. Open picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Scottie Scheffler 11-4
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Xander Schauffele 10-1
Bryson DeChambeau 10-1
Viktor Hovland 12-1
Ludvig Aberg 14-1
Collin Morikawa 14-1
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Jon Rahm 25-1
Patrick Cantlay 28-1
Cameron Smith 28-1
Max Homa 28-1
Wyndham Clark 33-1
Justin Thomas 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Cameron Young 40-1
Dustin Johnson 40-1
Jordan Spieth 40-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 40-1
Sahith Theegala 45-1
Tom Kim 45-1
Tony Finau 45-1
Tommy Fleetwood 45-1
Jason Day 45-1
Sungjae Im 50-1
Min Woo Lee 50-1
Tyrrell Hatton 50-1
Si Woo Kim 55-1
Will Zalatoris 55-1
Shane Lowry 60-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Sam Burns 60-1
Dean Burmester 60-1
Keegan Bradley 60-1
Byeong-Hun An 70-1
Brian Harman 75-1
Patrick Reed 80-1
Sepp Straka 90-1
Stephan Jaeger 90-1
David Puig 90-1
Russell Henley 90-1
Adrian Meronk 90-1
Jake Knapp 100-1
Justin Rose 100-1
Billy Horschel 100-1
Chris Kirk 100-1
Aaron Rai 100-1
Nicolai Hojgaard 100-1
Thomas Detry 125-1
Eric Cole 125-1
Phil Mickelson 125-1
Rickie Fowler 125-1
Tom McKibbin 125-1
Akshay Bhatia 125-1
Tiger Woods 125-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125-1
Austin Eckroat 150-1
Victor Perez 150-1
Taylor Pendrith 150-1
Daniel Berger 150-1
Denny McCarthy 150-1
Cameron Davis 150-1
Emiliano Grillo 175-1
Taylor Moore 175-1
Ryan Fox 175-1
Tom Hoge 175-1
Harris English 175-1
Eugenio Chacarra 175-1
Adam Schenk 175-1
Adam Hadwin 175-1
Erik Van Rooyen 200-1
Nick Taylor 200-1
Kurt Kitayama 200-1
Rikuya Hoshino 200-1
J.T. Poston 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 200-1
Beau Hossler 200-1
Lucas Glover 200-1
Seamus Power 225-1
Grant Forrest 225-1
Adam Svensson 225-1
Davis Thompson 225-1
Harry Higgs 250-1
Gary Woodland 250-1
Mark Hubbard 250-1
Matthieu Pavon 250-1
Richard Mansell 250-1
Webb Simpson 250-1
Greyson Sigg 250-1
Ben Kohles 300-1
Brendon Todd 300-1
Tim Widing 300-1
Sam Bairstow 300-1
Peter Malnati 300-1
Sam Bennett 300-1
Matteo Manassero 300-1
Gordon Sargent 300-1
Jason Scrivener 300-1
Justin Lower 350-1
Casey Jarvis 350-1
Chesson Hadley 350-1
Nicolas Echavarria 350-1
Nick Dunlap 350-1
Zac Blair 350-1
Frankie Capan III 400-1
Max Greyserman 400-1
Matt Kuchar 400-1
S.H. Kim 400-1
Robert Rock 400-1
Chris Petefish 400-1
Rico Hoey 400-1
Wells Williams 500-1
Sung Kang 500-1
Charles Reiter 500-1
Federik Kjettrup 500-1
Ashton McCulloch 500-1
Ryo Ishikawa 500-1
Isaiah Salinda 500-1
Mcclure Meissner 500-1
Brandon Wu 500-1
Jackson Buchanan 500-1
Michael McGowan 500-1
Jim Herman 500-1
Brian Campbell 500-1
Logan McAllister 500-1
Carson Schaake 500-1
John Chin 500-1
Benjamin James 500-1
Omar Morales 500-1
Luke Clanton 500-1
Neal Shipley 500-1
Gunnar Broin 500-1
Stewart Hagestad 500-1
Carter Jenkins 500-1
Francisco Molinari 500-1
Brandon Robinson Thompson 500-1
Taisei Shimizu 500-1
Chris Naegel 500-1
Willie Mack III 500-1
Hiroshi Tai 500-1
Parker Bell 500-1
Takumi Kanaya 500-1
Colin Prater 500-1
Andrew Svoboda 500-1
Bryan Kim 500-1
Santiago De La Fuente 500-1
Riki Kawamoto 500-1
Joey Vrzich 500-1
Edoardo Molinari 500-1
Martin Kaymer 750-1
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