NFL playoff scenarios for Week 17: How this week’s results could change the playoff picture - The Athletic

With just two weeks remaining in the NFL season, both the AFC and NFC will have a great opportunity to give fans full hearts or heartbreak.

The AFC has one spot remaining with a clear three-team race, though the Steelers have about a two-percent chance of backing their way in. The NFC has a five-team race for two spots with the Giants being more than 85 percent likely to earn a bid as they need just one win in their final two games. And the team with the most likely odds to grab the last AFC wild-card spot, the Miami Dolphins, just lost Tua Tagovailoa to the concussion protocol, leaving his status for this weekend and the remainder of the season unclear.

Heading into Week 17, five teams have clinched playoff spots in the AFC and four in the NFC. The scenarios for the other playoff hopefuls are almost endless, and with neither bye locked up and three divisions still up for grabs, there is plenty more than just wild-card berths on the line this week. Only the Tennessee Titans have absolutely nothing to play for this week, as their fate depends on their Week 18 result against Jacksonville.

• Buffalo earns the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a Week 17 win against the Bengals and a Chiefs loss.

• Buffalo’s Week 17 opponent, the Bengals, capture the AFC North with a win Monday night and a Ravens loss or tie vs. the Steelers or with a tie against Buffalo and a Ravens loss.

• The Dolphins clinch a playoff berth with a win at the Patriots and a Jets loss, or by tying the Patriots, the Jets losing and the Steelers tying or losing.

• The Eagles clinch the NFC East this with a win vs. the Saints or a Cowboys loss or tie at the Titans. They also will secure the NFC’s top seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs with a win or by the Cowboys and 49ers losing or tying and the Vikings losing.

• The Buccaneers win the NFC South by beating the Panthers on Sunday.

• The Giants will clinch a playoff berth with a win in either of their two remaining games. And even without winning this week, the Giants would get in if a combination of the Seahawks, Commanders, Lions and Packers lose.

Let’s look at how the playoff picture could shift with each result this week:

Cowboys at Titans, 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday

What if the Cowboys win and Eagles lose?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	6.2 percent	+4.6 percent

What if the Titans lose?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	22.8 percent	+0.0 percent

What if the Titans win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	23.0 percent	+0.2 percent

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	0.0 percent	-1.6 percent

Saints at Eagles, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Saints win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	9.3 percent	+6.5 percent

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	75.0 percent	-17.4 percent

What if the Eagles win?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	100.0 percent	+7.6 percent

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	0.0 percent	-2.8 percent

Jaguars at Texans, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Jaguars win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	78.7 percent	+0.5 percent

What if the Texans win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	76.1 percent	-2.1 percent

Broncos at Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Broncos win?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	2.5 percent	-32.7 percent

What if the Chiefs win?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	41.8 percent	+6.6 percent

What if the Chiefs win and Bills lose?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	75.6 percent	+40.4 percent
	17.2 percent	+9.2 percent
	7.2 percent	-49.6 percent

Bears at Lions, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Lions win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	40.6 percent	+7.6 percent

What if the Bears win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	4.6 percent	-28.4 percent

Dolphins at Patriots, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Dolphins win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	84.4 percent	+16.8 percent
	0.0 percent	-10.4 percent

What if the Patriots win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	20.7 percent	+10.4 percent
	42.0 percent	-25.6 percent

Panthers at Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Bucs win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	100.0 percent	+19.2 percent
	0.0 percent	-17.6 percent

What if the Panthers win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	50.1 percent	+32.5 percent
	44.7 percent	-36.1 percent

Browns at Commanders, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Browns win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	8.5 percent	-20.8 percent

What if the Commanders win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	50.4 percent	+21.1 percent

Colts at Giants, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Colts win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	79.9 percent	-6.2 percent

What if the Giants win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	100.0 percent	+13.9 percent

Jets at Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Jets win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	44.7 percent	+25.8 percent
	7.7 percent	-15.0 percent

What if the Seahawks win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	53.6 percent	+30.9 percent
	0.0 percent	-18.9 percent

49ers at Raiders, 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the 49ers win?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	5.2 percent	+2.1 percent

What if the 49ers win and Eagles lose?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	16.3 percent	+13.2 percent

What if the Raiders win?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	0.0 percent	-3.1 percent

Vikings at Packers, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Vikings win?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	6.5 percent	+3.3 percent

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	2.9 percent	-25.4 percent

What if the Packers win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	39.5 percent	+11.2 percent

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	0.0 percent	-3.2 percent

What if the Vikings win and Eagles lose?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	20.2 percent	+17.0 percent

Steelers at Ravens, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday

What if the Steelers win?

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	5.1 percent	+3.1 percent

TEAM	DIVISION ODDS	CHANGE
	80.9 percent	+7.5 percent
	19.1 percent	-7.5 percent

What if the Ravens win?

TEAM	DIVISION ODDS	CHANGE
	67.2 percent	-6.2 percent
	32.8 percent	+6.2 percent

TEAM	PLAYOFF ODDS	CHANGE
	0.0 percent	-2.0 percent

Bills at Bengals, 8:15 p.m. ET Monday

What if the Bills win?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	86.7 percent	+30.5 percent
	13.3 percent	-22.6 percent
	0.0 percent	-8.0 percent

What if the Bills win and Chiefs lose?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	100.0 percent	+46.8 percent

What if the Bengals win?

TEAM	1-SEED ODDS	CHANGE
	64.4 percent	+28.5 percent
	25.5 percent	+17.5 percent
	10.1 percent	-46.1 percent