Pete ThamelESPN
One of the most repeated mantras the past few offseasons has been the bemoaning of how Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State have pulled away from the rest of the sport. There were cries of a lack of balance, too much predictability and the sport getting stale.
The tempest to the SEC portion of that theory, of course, has been the 2022 interlopers from Tennessee. The Vols have already rocked the SEC establishment with a 52-49 home victory over the Crimson Tide that resonated as part seminal victory and part exorcism. They debuted in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday as the country's No. 1 team.
This weekend, there's another litmus test for how college football -- still a font of unpredictability -- has changed this season. The No. 1 Vols head to No. 3 UGA for this season's Game of the Century.
ESPN spoke to a total of 15 head coaches, assistants, NFL scouts and staffers about Tennessee, UGA and Alabama as a way to break down both the season's top game and handicap the SEC race. Perhaps a surprise to some, a majority of the coaches -- but certainly not all -- picked Tennessee to win at Georgia despite being an 8-point underdog.
"I won't be surprised if Tennessee scores 50," one coach said. "Georgia's front is average. Their back end is below average. They really miss William Poole [who left the team early in September]. I don't think their corners are special. The [Kelee] Ringo kid, he doesn't run nearly as well as you'd expect. The others are just OK. They're going to run right by those corners."
Tennessee's sudden ambush of the SEC elite -- and potentially the College Football Playoff -- offers evidence to one of the working theories that's evolved during this season. Alabama and Georgia raced ahead of the rest of the sport last season, as they each won their CFP semifinal games by three touchdowns and won the past two titles. But this season, even with Georgia undefeated, it appears the field has caught up to them.
The slight regression of Alabama and Georgia from superior to merely elite leaves the sport poised for a delicious finishing kick. The teams between No. 1 and No. 6 in the college football rankings appear to be more muddled this season, as the inevitability of Alabama and Georgia dominance has been replaced by the specter of mortality.
"At this point, the way they are built, an Ohio State loss [in the regular season] would be more of a surprise than either Georgia losing or Alabama losing again," an NFL scout said.
Here's a breakdown of the SEC's top three playoff contenders, with a special focus on the matchup between Georgia and Tennessee this weekend.
Jump to a section:
Just how good is Georgia? | Can Bama turn things around?
Why Tennessee can beat Georgia
What's the biggest mismatch in Tennessee's favor?
Coach after coach brought up the stress Georgia's corners will be under. Hendon Hooker is the leader for the Heisman Trophy and his top trio of receivers -- Cedric Tillman, Bru McCoy and Jalin Hyatt -- have been demons this season.
Against Alabama, Tennessee repeatedly picked on safety DeMarcco Hellams to the point that everyone in Neyland Stadium knew where the ball was going. Look for Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh to again isolate a weakness and keep pounding at it. That means young corners Kamari Lassiter and Javon Bullard along with reserves Daylen Everette and transfer Tykee Smith will be targeted.
"Where they have the biggest issue is at corner. I think Ringo is really good. But opposite of him, they've shuffled some guys around," another coach said. "They lost [William] Poole, which was a big loss. [Lassiter] has been starting. And after that, there's some freshmen. If there's one weakness to me, it's their depth at corner. When they play someone like Tennessee, that can get exposed. We tried to attack whoever was in at corner opposite of Ringo. I think that would be their only true weakness."
What does Cedric Tillman's return mean?
Perhaps the most impressive part of Tennessee's win over Alabama was that it didn't have its best wide receiver. Cedric Tillman was recovering from tightrope surgery and missed Tennessee's trio of statement SEC wins against Florida, LSU and Alabama. Tillman returned against Kentucky and caught four balls for 22 yards and Georgia fans likely remember his 10 catches and 200 yards in last year's game. In his absence, Hyatt has emerged as the SEC's most dynamic and productive receiver, as he's 243 yards ahead of the SEC's next best receiver with his 907 receiving yards.
"Here's where I think Tillman makes it harder for you," another coach said. "He's a big-body guy. I don't know if Hooker can start in the NFL. I don't know if he's accurate enough. But I think with him, he provides a big catch radius and a 'get it close to me' guy that Hooker needs in one-on-one coverage. If you're going to play him man, he's a big body who can win the one-on-one. If you look back at Hooker earlier in his career on film, he's always had the arm but not the accuracy. What's been impressive is how he's improved, and the offense has accommodated for his strengths."
What makes Hyatt perhaps the sport's breakout player this year?
Hyatt looks pedestrian at just 6-foot and 185 pounds. But he's the No. 2 receiver in Mel Kiper Jr.'s new draft rankings and an NFL scout told ESPN Hyatt is "probably the fastest player in college football." That includes a 4.31 40-yard dash and a 10.46 100-meter time, which helps explain how he's already set a Tennessee single-season record with 14 touchdown catches this year.
What makes Hyatt unique -- and Tennessee's offense difficult -- is his ability to take the defense's top off from the slot. One coach compared this to a basketball team that can stretch a defense with strong outside shooting and clear out the low post for a big man to work.
"When you got a guy who is running down the seam vertically, he's creating a lot of space underneath for routes. When they are really cooking, they get him and Tillman on the same side. Run him vertical and create space for Tillman to run routes. What makes Tennessee good is that you can try and change things up on them, and they're used to all the adjustments. They can react faster than your [defensive players] trying to learn and do something different in a week."
With the 127th-ranked pass defense, how has Tennessee risen so high?
The Volunteers' offense inherently hamstrings their defense, as Tennessee averages 21.3 seconds per offensive play. That's No. 6 in time of possession per play in the country, which usually means either scoring or punting quickly. What opposing coaches have noted is that Tennessee is comfortable playing this way, and it has the pieces like rush edge Byron Young (6.0 TFLs) and strong linebackers Aaron Beasley and Jeremy Banks to create enough disruption.
"They are the opposite of bend but don't break," another opposing coach said. "They are high-risk, high-reward. I think they're very committed to who they are. Their defense is pressure based. I think they can be vulnerable. They can create issues, but be vulnerable at times. Bama showed that. Their back end is just OK. If you can handle the movement, you can create some run seams in there."
Just how good is this version of Georgia?
What's the hallmark of this Georgia team?
The Bulldogs had 15 players drafted in 2022, a record in the seven-round draft era. Replacing all that talent hasn't been as seamless as it appeared it could be when they demolished Oregon 49-3 in the opener. But they have a high-talent level, high-effort level and a productive quarterback in Stetson Bennett, who has impressed opposing coaches.
"Kirby is a master at team concept, handling all the egos and everything," another coach said. "I think that shows up. Even though Georgia replaced a lot of guys, there were a lot of guys who played significant snaps on their defense. They do a little less schematically than Alabama from watching both on film, but Georgia seems a little more dialed in and play more together. They play a little harder than Alabama."
1:27
Heather Dinich and Paul Finebaum break down whether Georgia or Tennessee can survive a loss in their upcoming matchup.
How can Georgia counter Tennessee's tempo?
The best way a coach described the Vols was like the up-tempo Jerry Tarkanian-era UNLV basketball teams. They score fast, can give up scores fast and want to constantly pressure. Georgia can counter that with the football version of the four corners offense. It is designed to control the ball, flash an effective quarterback run game and have the country's best tight end tandem in the Swiss Army knife Brock Bowers and 6-foot-7, 270-pound Darnell Washington. For Georgia to win, the path is both through and behind those tight ends.
"I think Bowers is the best player in college football," another coach said. "He can do everything. He could also be considered by some as their best running back [27.3 yards on three carries]. When he's lined up in the tight end position, the way college football is now, they all align off the ball. Like a wing. He lines up. He can block, run routes and now they're handing him the ball. It changes the way you have to play defense, the matchups he creates. You almost have to treat him like a wide receiver. OK, that's great until he becomes a blocker and he has a nickel on him and he blows him off the ball. You're going to put a defensive back on him. He's going to big-boy the defensive back and catch passes the whole game. He's truly a matchup problem. There aren't many people who have big safeties who can deal with him. When we played them, I said, 'Look at this problem. Look at this problem. Look at this problem.'"
How much has Stetson Bennett improved?
A lot. Coaches noted it appears offensive coordinator Todd Monken has loosened the reins on Bennett and let him rip the ball around more this season. One coach observed that he "creates more plays, extends them with his feet" and his accuracy has improved to 67.5% from 64.5%.
"There's a perception that you can only do so much with him, that he's limited," another coach said. "They don't feel like that about him there. They trust him to make every single throw. He can touch the whole field. You can tell they are confident in him as a coaching staff."
What's holding Georgia back?
Simply put, a lack of explosive skill players. Outside of Bowers, there's a lack of high-end skill guys who keep coordinators up at night. That's why so much onus has been on Bennett this season, as Georgia has no player in the SEC's top 15 in rushing -- they have four backs over 200 yards. The only wide receiver in the top 15 in receiving yards in the SEC is Ladd McConkey at No. 15.
"I just don't know if they have anyone outside Brock Bowers that really, really scares you at the wide receiver position right now," a coach said. "They have guys, but they are just guys. There's better throughout the SEC. From that standpoint. If you can stop the run, I don't think the issue is Stetson. It's having enough weapons around him. There's no George Pickens or Jermaine Burton and all those guys like last year."
What's an underappreciated aspect of UGA?
A few coaches went out of their way to compliment Monken. One coach detailed why Monken has shown to be next level, even with the offense having some limitations.
"That's why I think the playcalling and coaching aspect really, really gives them an edge," the coach said. "You may watch the first few games [on film] and you're defending a play. When they play you, they give you the same formation with a completely different wrinkle off the same play. The first half of the play feels the same, then there's an adjustment and it's a brand-new play real fast. Just the way that they set plays up. He does a good job mixing up. You can't say, 'When this guy comes in, this play is coming.'"
What will Nolan Smith's absence mean?
Smith, a star edge rusher and a likely first-round NFL draft pick, is out for the year with a torn pectoral muscle. This will be countered somewhat by the return of Jalen Carter to the interior of UGA's defensive line. Carter is the country's top interior defensive lineman and perhaps the most talented player at any position in the country, as some scouts view him as a potential No. 1 overall pick. He hasn't produced that way this year, but he wreaked havoc against Florida after a missing nearly a month with a knee injury. But there's no denying Smith's loss.
"He's their best pass-rusher, one of the best team leaders," a coach said. "He's very active in creating turnovers, as he's a versatile athlete who they'd move around a lot. He's athletic enough to drop into the flats. He's one of the few returning guys who started all year on that historic defense last year. It's a huge loss for Georgia."
Can Alabama turn things around?
What has been holding Alabama back?
This has been a bizarro world for those of us accustomed to the Crimson Tide being a relentless, robotic and unflinching machine. Alabama is No. 125 of 131 teams in penalties per game, averaging 8.2 per contest. That means on average, it is giving away 72 yards per game. The other jarring statistic is the 21 dropped passes, which is one drop per 8.2 targets and puts the Tide No. 124 in the country, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Along with a jarring lack of discipline, there's also a talent gap compared to prior Alabama teams.
"Alabama isn't as dominant as it was three years ago, as this is the lowest talent level that I've seen there in recent years," an NFL scout said. "They have Bryce Young and Jahmyr Gibbs and Will Anderson, who are all high-end. But after that, it's steady and just typically good college players. There aren't Trevon Diggs, Patrick Surtain and Xavier McKinney, when we were all throwing high grades out there. There's mid-tier and midround guys, and that's creating an even playing field. Even at receiver, they have Burton, who is steady and solid but not the same dynamic level of playmaker we're used to at receiver."
What can Georgia learn from Alabama's defensive no-show against Tennessee?
The Georgia defensive system has evolved in the seven years since Kirby Smart left Alabama and took over in Athens. But there's some baseline principles that are similar enough schematically to where Georgia will closely watch Alabama's failures in giving up 567 yards and 12.1 yards per pass to the Vols.
"It's a real advantage to go second," another coach said. "I just felt like Alabama was a lot of passive looks and they dropped eight. I'm not sure that's the way to beat them. The way to beat them is to get after Hooker a little bit. I feel like UGA and Bama are similar enough on defense. They've seen a way to defend it that was either good or bad and build on it."
What's improved about Bryce Young this year?
The returning Heisman Trophy winner has less ammo than recent Alabama teams. It's telling that Alabama's best tailback (Gibbs) and wide receiver (Burton) are both transfers who arrived this year. But considering Alabama has had six wide receivers drafted in the first or second round since 2020, some type of drop-off seemed inevitable. "The quarterback is dangerous, as he's more of a creator than Mac Jones was," a coach said. "Their wide receiver play, well, it wasn't like I saw DeVonta Smith out there. The offensive line was still learning how to play together, you could tell they were building chemistry. Young has both intelligence and can create, so you're put in this dilemma. Do you pressure him? He's got the ability to get the ball out quickly. Or do you add coverages, and he's going to find a vertical escape and score a touchdown running. He's got versatility and a knack to create plays."
If Georgia and Alabama played later this year, who would win?
An SEC title game rematch from 2021 was widely expected this season. If Georgia and Alabama win this weekend, we'll likely get it. The two teams split last season, with Alabama dicing up Georgia in the SEC title game and the Bulldogs outlasting the Tide in the national title game.
"I don't know who'd win," another coach said. "I really don't. I think it'd be a good matchup. I think Alabama may be a little more talented from top to bottom. I think Georgia may be a better team. I just feel like Georgia plays better together. I think Georgia has a good mix of team guys that are doing the right things all the time and some talent, too, obviously. They also are rarely making mistakes. Alabama, top to bottom, may be a bit more talented, but they have less of those kinds of role guys."
Added another: "I would probably say Georgia. I just think it seems to me like they have a little more grip on their identity. There's a little more of ... the thread runs through that program -- offense and defense and special teams. It still seems like Alabama is searching for their identity a little bit."
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