The first week of the NFL season is always so unpredictable. So I will be happy with my first week of picks after seeing what transpired in Week 1.
I went 7-8-1 straight up, which stinks. I went 8-8 against the spread, which is so-so. But the great news is that I went 5-1 with my best bets as part of the Pick Six Podcast. And if not for me adding the Jacksonville Jaguars late, it would have been a clean sweep. Even that looked good for a while, too.
So let's get back at it in what I call get-even week in the NFL. Teams that looked bad in Week 1 probably won't look that way in the second week, while the reverse is likely true for some of the winners. It won't always play out that way, but I think it will this week in a lot of the games.
Time to get the straight-up record back on track but, most of all, let's stay hot with the best bets.
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
This is the game of the week with Justin Herbert against Patrick Mahomes. That is a treat anytime they meet, and Arrowhead will be rocking on Thursday night. The Chiefs rolled against the Cardinals with Mahomes lighting things up. But the Chargers can rush the passer with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Look for a high-scoring game with the Chiefs winning a close one.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Chargers 30
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Dolphins and Ravens both won in impressive fashion last week, but now Miami goes on the road for the first time. The Dolphins dominated the Ravens last year at home, but this will be different. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson get the best of the Dolphins.
Pick: Ravens 27, Dolphins 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Browns will be facing a familiar quarterback this week in Joe Flacco. He wasn't good last week in the Jets' loss to the Ravens. The Browns got a close win against Carolina last week, but they are home in this one and Jacoby Brissett will play better in his second start for the Browns. They go to 2-0.
Pick: Browns 24, Jets 13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Commanders are coming off a home victory over the Jaguars where Carson Wentz drove them to the game-winning score late. The Lions looked good on offense against the Eagles, but the defense was terrible. This could end up being a shootout. Washington is the better team, and I think that will show up. Commanders take it.
Pick: Commanders 31, Lions 27
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Colts haven't won in Jacksonville since 2014 and lost there last year in the final week to cost them a playoff spot. They are also playing consecutive road games, while Jacksonville is playing its home opener. That's a big edge to the Jaguars. The Colts rallied to tie the Texans last week, but this time around they won't rally to win. The Jaguars will get their first victory.
Pick: Jaguars 26, Colts 23
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Bucs are playing consecutive road games after a Sunday night game, which is always tough. But they are also banged up on offense in a big way. The Saints' defense gets after Tom Brady when his line is healthy, which it is isn't. Look for the Saints' defense to come up big here after struggling last week. The Saints take it.
Pick: Saints 23, Bucs 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Giants did some good things in rallying late to beat the Titans on the road. Saquon Barkley was special. He will again carry the team here against a Carolina team that lost last week to the Browns. The Giants go to 2-0. Can you believe it?
Pick: Giants 23, Panthers 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots are playing consecutive road games after a terrible showing in Miami. The Steelers are playing their home opener after upsetting the Bengals. But the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt, which matters in a big way. The defensive dynamic changes. The Patriots will hang around in this one as the offense finally shows some life. They will then win it late.
Pick: Patriots 21, Steelers 20
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Rams will have been rested for 10 days after a terrible showing against the Bills. Sean McVay is too good a coach for that loss to linger. The Falcons played well in losing to the Saints in a game they probably should have won. This is a long trip against a good team that will be focused. Rams take it big.
Pick: Rams 31, Falcons 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Seahawks are 1-0, while the 49ers are 0-1. Who saw that after Week 1? Seattle played well in upsetting the Broncos on Monday night, but now they head out on a short week. That's a challenge. The 49ers didn't play well in the bad conditions at Soldier Field in losing to the Bears, but that will change here. Trey Lance gets it going.
Pick: 49ers 29, Seahawks 23
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals get a break in facing Cooper Rush rather than Dak Prescott. It took Joe Burrow a while to get going against Pittsburgh after sitting out much of training camp, but he got the rust off in the second half. I think that carries over. The Cowboys are too limited on offense. The Bengals win it.
Pick: Bengals 27, Cowboys 20
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-10)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Broncos are playing their home opener after losing Monday night to the Seahawks in a game they should have won. The Texans played well in tying the Colts last week, but this will be a bigger challenge on the road. I think they can hang around in this one, but the Broncos will win it late.
Pick: Broncos 24, Texans 21
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Raiders lost to the Chargers, but played well. The Cardinals lost to the Chiefs, and played terrible football. Now they head out on the road for the first time. The Cardinals just don't have the feel of being a good team. Derek Carr lights them up.
Pick: Raiders 34, Cardinals 17
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
The Packers were awful in losing to the Vikings, while the Bears shocked the 49ers in a driving rain storm. This is the get-right game for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers and the passing game will get it going, and the defense will dominate Justin Fields and the Bears' offense.
Pick: Packers 34, Bears 14
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-10)
Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)
The Titans are coming off a brutal loss to the Giants where they blew a big lead. Now they head north to play a Bills team that will have been rested for 11 days. That matters. Buffalo has had problems with the Titans in recent years, but that won't be the case here. Josh Allen continues to roll up big numbers.
Pick: Bills 33, Titans 19
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)
This is one of the best games of the week, with two 1-0 teams coming off impressive victories. The Minnesota defense was outstanding last week against the Packers, but this is a different style of offense. The Eagles will roll to a lot of points here, but the Vikings will get theirs too. This will be a shootout with the Eagles getting the best of it.
Pick: Eagles 32, Vikings 26
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