Welcome to our NFL game predictions page. Every week you will find our estimated win probability and expected spread (Home EPR Advantage) for the upcoming games. We will also keep a running tally on our model has performed compared to the betting markets, specifically evaluating it against the closing spread. We will only count the predictions where the model meaningfully differs from the market, which we’ve defined as when the EPR advantage differs by 2 or more from the spread (i.e. a team has an EPR advantage of 5.5 but is only favored to win by 3 according to the spread).
The win probabilities are calculated using each team’s EPR, home field advantage, and rest advantages. Each team’s EPR is a prediction of how many points we’d expect that team to beat an average team by on a neutral field, so to come up with the expected spread we take the difference in the two team’s EPR and adjust for home field advantage and rest...
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