As much as we all wish this was an elaborate April Fool’s joke, it’s sadly just another swing that comes along with being the king of combat sports.

Confirmed Sunday by UFC president Dana White, an injury has forced Tony Fergurson to withdraw from his UFC 223 main-event matchup with Khabib Nurmagomedov, and he will now be stripped of his interim lightweight title. Replacing Ferguson is UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway, who will now meet Nurmagomedov for the UFC lightweight championship.

It’s an unprecedented shuffling of the cards that arguably feels like a stacked deck, but, like a Hawaiian champion who came before him, Holloway is reminding us of what it takes to be one of the best pound-for-pound fighters.

Max Holloway (19-3 MMA, 15-3 UFC)

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’11” Age: 36 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 69″
  • Last fight: TKO win over Jose Aldo (Dec. 2, 2017)
  • Camp: Hawaii Elite MMA (Hawaii)
  • Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Excellent

Supplemental info:
+ UFC fetherweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Manages distance well
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Moves laterally/attacks off angles
+ Excellent variety of shot selection
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ 83 percent takedown defense rate
+ Deceptively counters clinches/grappling
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Underrated ground game
^ Slick submissions in transition

Khabib Nurmagomedov (25-0 MMA, 9-0 UFC)

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Staple info:

  • Height: 5’10” Age: 29 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 70″
  • Last fight: Decision win over Edson Barboza (Dec. 30, 2017)
  • Camp: American Kickboxing Academy (San Jose, Calif.)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Excellent

Supplemental info:
+ 2x world sambo champion
+ 2x Russian combat sambo champion
+ M-1 Selecton champion
+ 8 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Improved striking game
^ Deceptively heavy hands
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Superb underhook awareness
+ Diverse takedown acumen
^ Chains attempts seamlessly
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ 34 passes in 8 fights
+ Underrated guard and submissions
+ Powerful ground striker

Summary:

As I alluded to in the intro above, the shuffling of UFC 223’s main event has left us with a matchup that no one saw coming.

Nurmagomedov, an undefeated phenom who was favored to beat former interim champion Ferguson, will now welcome the featherweight champ to the lightweight division. Holloway, who was forced to withdraw from a featherweight title fight with Frankie Edgar last month, was more than willing to take the opportunity with just six days’ notice.

Stacked circumstances aside, Holloway is a consummate professional who will bring a different challenge to the fold.

Displaying solid striking and footwork fundamentals since storming onto the UFC scene, Holloway compliments his game with his natural gifts of speed and length, attributes that will be his best friend in this fight.

Showing consistent technical evolutions from fight to fight, the Hawaiian embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attack. Whether he is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the current featherweight king makes for a hard read on the feet.

When feeling in stride, Holloway looks to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway can hypothetically take a fight in many different directions.

Still, if Holloway doesn’t show an answer for Nurmagomedov’s pressure early, then he will probably be on the wrong end of a short fuse.

Enter Nurmagomedov.

An aggressive combat sambo champion who found a home at American Kickboxing Academy, Nurmagomedov has steadily developed his striking throughout his UFC tenure. Incorporating a heavy dose of feints, Nurmagomedov draws out his opponents’ reactions so that he can create openings for his approach.

From shovel hooks to overhand rights, it is Nurmagomedov’s commitment to his punches that make them so potent. And in his last battle with Edson Barboza, we saw the Dagestani fighter tighten up his defense, demonstrating a tighter shell and smoother flow than we’re accustomed to seeing from him.

Nevertheless, Nurmagomedov usually does not look to strike long, as we know where his intentions lie.

The question, however, remains: Will Nurmagomedov be able to pin down the fleet of foot Holloway?

An agile mover who can change direction at the drop of a dime, Holloway may be more difficult to get a beat on than Nurmagomedov initially expects. Ricardo Lamas and Jeremy Stephens, two sizeable featherweights with more than serviceable takedown ability, both had issues when it came to corralling Holloway for takedowns.

I see speed and movement being Holloway’s friend early, but Nurmagomedov’s style of entry is a simple one that is hard to deny.

Primarily predicating his offense off of the establishment of an underhook, Nurmagomedov is OK with failing on his first shot so that he can push his opposition to the fence. And once he’s in close, it usually doesn’t take long for Nurmagomedov to get what he wants.

Whether he is hitting trips and tosses from the bodylock or going through his single-leg repertoire of high-crotch hoists to snap-downs, the Dagestani can do it all. However, to his Hawaiian foe’s credit, Holloway does an exceptional job at defending takedowns against the fence, displaying a knack for breaking grips and separating his hips from danger. And considering a beaten and battered Barboza was able to thwart off takedowns from Nurmagomedov come the third round, I suggest leaving room to be surprised here.

That said, if Holloway fails to find answers fast, then he may be in for a long night at the office. Holloway’s get-up game and improvements aside, Nurmagomedov is a master when it comes to transitional grappling, crushing his opponents’ spirits through unforgiving wrist-rides, looking to pick posts and collapse their base anytime they attempt to stand.

Holloway has an underrated submission grappling game the includes a dangerous guillotine choke, but I don’t like his chances of going technique-for-technique with Nurmagomedov on the mat.

The oddsmakers don’t seem to like the Hawaiian’s chances either, opening Nurmagomedov -505 and Holloway +365.

Although a line that wide against a world champion can feel a bit steep, I can see why it’s handicapped that way. Nurmagomedov was favored at over 2-to-1 odds to beat Ferguson, a proven destroyer at 155 pounds who I was picking to win previous to Sunday’s cancellation. And despite Holloway being on an impressive 12-fight winning streak, these are far from ideal circumstances to test this level of styles match.

For me, this ultimately comes down to Holloway’s speed vs. Nurmagomedov’s power, a story that I feel will unfold in the first round.

Holloway’s takedown defense is an underrated attribute, but the truth is, we still haven’t seen him face this caliber (or weight) of grappler, much less perform on this short of notice. Nurmagomedov, on the other hand, has been on the wrong side of speedier opposition (see his fight with Michael Johnson) and was still able to impose his game.

My heart is rooting for Holloway to pull off an upset akin to B.J. Penn beating Matt Hughes back at UFC 46. However, as an analyst, it’s hard not to see Nurmagomedov running away with this after a few early scares.

Official pick: Nurmagomedov inside the distance

For more on UFC 223, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.